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- you wake up
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Onchain Wizard
2,853 posts
Onchain Wizard
@OnChainWizard
Founder @chainedge_io Alpha: @thedailyedge_ Writing @ onchainwizard.substack.com TG: t.me/chainedgealpha
Joined May 2020
- How to make a >800 million dollars in crypto attacking the once 3rd largest stablecoin, Soros style: Everyone is talking about the $UST attack right now, including Janet Yellen. But no one is talking about how much money the attacker made (or how brilliant it was). Lets dig in🧵
- Replying to @OnChainWizardIf you enjoyed this content, check out my substack where I cover how to avoid scams, watch wallets and make money on chain.
- Replying to @OnChainWizardAnd for the reply guys, yes I know a lot of this involves some speculation & assumptions. But a lot of money was made here either way, and I thought it would be cool to dive into how they did it.
- So let me get this straight: liquid investment choices are either: (1) hold cash that is facing 10%+ inflation, (2) own stocks that go down 10% every day, (3) own tokens that go down 20%+ every day or (4) hold stablecoins that aren't stable and can be down 40% in a day
GIF - Replying to @OnChainWizardSo how much did our attacker make? There aren't details on where they covered obviously, but if they are able to cover (or buy back) the entire position at ~$32k, that means they made $952mm on the short.
- This wallet (tagged as 3AC on Nansen) has been aggressively paying back AAVE debt against its 223k ETH / $264mm position to avoid liquidation. With $198mm in borrowings against it, @ a 85% liq threshold, a -11% move in ETH to $1,042 liqudates it etherscan.io/address/0x4093…
- Replying to @OnChainWizardOur story starts in late March, when the Luna Foundation Guard (or LFG) starts buying BTC to help back $UST. LFG started accumulating BTC on 3/22, and by March 26th had a $1bn+ BTC position. This is leg #1 that made this trade (or attack) brilliant. x.com/LFG_Reserve/st…
- Replying to @OnChainWizardBTC was the perfect playground for the trade, as the liquidity was there to pull it off. While having LFG involved in BTC, and foreseeing they would sell to keep the peg (and prevent LUNA from dying) was the kicker.
- Replying to @OnChainWizardOn the $350mm of $UST curve dumps I don't think they took much of a loss, lets assume 3% or just $11m. And lets assume that all the Binance dumps were done at 80c, thats another $125mm cost of doing business. For a grand total profit of $815mm (bf borrow cost).
GIF - Replying to @OnChainWizardThe crypto community panics as they wonder how much $BTC will be sold to keep the peg. There are liquidations across the board and LUNA pukes because of its redemption mechanism (the attacker very well could have shorted LUNA as well). BTC fell 25% from $42k on 4/11 to $31.3k
- Here’s why you’re NOT making money in crypto, and how you can take action to change that today Thread 🧵
- Replying to @OnChainWizardSo you have a ~$4.2bn short position built. Over the same time, the attacker builds a $1bn OTC position in $UST. The stage is now set to create a run on the bank and get paid on your BTC short. In anticipation of the 4pool, LFG initially removes $150mm from 3pool liquidity.
