Rosemary Kelanic (@RKelanic) / X

Rosemary Kelanic

4,135 posts

Rosemary Kelanic

@RKelanic

Director, Middle East Program @defpriorities | Geopolitics | Energy | Grand Strategy | @uchicago Poli Sci Ph.D. Subscribe: rosemarykelanic.substack.com

South Bend, IN

defensepriorities.org/people/rosemar…

Joined March 2011

Pinned
Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Mar 27
"The Real U.S. Energy Security Problem -- And How to Fix It" is finally out and available OPEN ACCESS. Written before the Iran War, it explains why the U.S. is *more vulnerable* to oil shocks than China, Russia and the EU. Best thing I've written on oil in 15+ yrs of study.
The Real US Energy Security Problem—And How to Fix It
From tandfonline.com
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 14, 2025
My take in NYTimes: “A war with Iran would be a catastrophe, the culminating failure of decades of regional overreach by the United States.” Trump must keep us out. @defpriorities gift link:
Opinion | A U.S. War With Iran Would Be a Catastrophe (Gift Article)
From nytimes.com
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 19, 2025
Overlooked: If U.S. didn't have troops in region, Iran wouldn't be able to hit U.S. forces at all. Huge hazard of maintaining footprints the world over. @defpriorities news.usni.org/2025/06/18/rep… via @withemes
Report to Congress on Iran’s Ballistic Missile Programs - USNI News
From news.usni.org
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 15, 2025
Regime change has never occurred through airpower alone. Regime change requires ground forces -- outright invasion, or hammer & anvil with strikes backed by attacker ground troops or local allies. Just check out work by Alex Downes or Lindsey O'Rourke
Clash Report
@clashreport
Jun 15, 2025
BREAKING: Netanyahu says that a regime change in Iran is possible as a result of the Israeli strikes targeting the country’s leadership.
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 15, 2025
WSJ buried lede: "Netanyahu said to Trump on Monday that he would authorize the attack. Trump told him to hold off, insisting that the diplomatic approach to dismantling Iran’s nuclear work should play out before turning to a military step."
Trump, a Self-Styled Peacemaker, Gets Drawn Into Foreign Entanglements
From wsj.com
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 14, 2025
Joining the war would be a catastrophe for the United States. Israel knew its capabilities and limitations starting this war. Clearly dragging US in was the plan all along. Sincerely hope Trump resists making a terrible mistake.
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
Jun 14, 2025
Israel has officially requested that the United States join its ongoing operation against Iran, particularly targeting underground nuclear facilities such as the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), which the Israeli Air Force does not have the means to effectively strike without
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 15, 2025
Israel's assumption is it will force U.S. into regime change war with Iran, possibly within days. *This is the story.*
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 17, 2025
Airstrikes can't keep Iran from getting the bomb. Only way to destroy nuclear sites with certainty is U.S. ground forces -- and regime change. That's what's being sold here in disguise.
Nicholas Kristof
@NickKristof
Jun 17, 2025
President Trump keeps saying "IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON." He has a point. That was the reason for the JCPOA nuclear deal, which kept Iran from enriching to high levels and from amassing substantial nuclear fuel--and Trump tore it up, creating this crisis. The military
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 18, 2025
100% the more likely outcome is wrecking Iran as a functioning state, what @vali_nasr calls “Syriafication.”That’s fine with Netanyahu, because Israel is geographically buffered by Iraq, Jordan, etc. from the worst spillovers of a failed state in Iran.
Stephen Wertheim
@stephenwertheim
Jun 18, 2025
Regime change is one of Israel’s aspirations, but like Putin — who if he doesn’t get Ukraine, can live with wrecking Ukraine — Netanyahu more likely expects to weaken Iran and let the fallout be someone else’s problem.
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 12, 2025
Not just MAGA but most of the U.S. public opposes war with Iran, according to recent polling by Brookings.
Farnaz Fassihi
@farnazfassihi
Jun 12, 2025
Worth noting that a sizable portion of MAGA is against war with Iran & broadly more catastrophic wars in the Middle East & they are calling on Trump to honor that promise.
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 18, 2019
Check out my piece on the Monkey Cage about why Iran can’t easily disrupt global oil
Analysis | Why Iran’s ‘oil weapon’ isn’t that scary
From washingtonpost.com
Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jul 23, 2025
Airstrikes didn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear program because there is no viable military solution to preventing Iranian weaponization. This was a regime change attempt by Israel under thin nuclear disguise — and the U.S. must not get pulled in.
Michael Young
@BeirutCalling
Jul 23, 2025
Iran's nuclear program has survived "obliteration" by the Trump administration, says @RKelanic in a sobering interview with Diwan. "The Iranian nuclear complex is sprawling and includes many additional sites beyond Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan that were not hit by airstrikes," she
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 22, 2025
This is why POTUS goal of denying Iran nukes was unattainable by airpower alone. We need Iran's cooperation to secure uranium stockpiles. But why would they trust the U.S. after we just attacked them in the middle of a negotiations process?
laurence norman
@laurnorman
Jun 22, 2025
IMPORTANT: @JDVance is suggesting here that the stockpile is in tact and in Iranians hands. "We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that's one of the things that we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about."
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Rosemary Kelanic
@RKelanic
Jun 15, 2025
Spot on: “Israel has formally requested a direct US intervention in its war against Iran. The intervention itself will seem easy, relatively speaking. It's the aftermath you should worry about…another nation-building exercise in the Middle East—except on a much vaster and more
Sohrab Ahmari 🇺🇸
@SohrabAhmari
Jun 15, 2025
We're about to get dragged into nation-building 2.0 Israel has formally requested a direct US intervention in its war against Iran. The intervention itself will seem easy, relatively speaking. It's the aftermath you should worry about. What we're likely looking at is yet another
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