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Synthesis
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Synthesis
@SynthesisTrade
Trade the Moment discord.gg/sG5cs9MEAv
- "US x Iran sign an agreement by June 15?" is sitting at 93¢. The US & Iran have finalized the MOU. But the signing will be on Friday, June 19 in Switzerland as per Iran's Foreign Ministry. What is your read?
- Mexico vs South Africa. 2010. Johannesburg. Same stage. Same result: DRAW. 16 years later. Same matchup. Mexico win: 70% Draw: 21% South Africa upset: 11% Mexico hasn't lost a World Cup opening match in 7 consecutive tournaments. But the one time they faced South Africa at
- Trump announced Bill Pulte as Acting DNI starting June 19. But the market — "Who will Trump announce as the next Director of National Intelligence by December 31?" — hasn't moved yet. "No announcement at all" is still sitting at 19.4¢, higher than all the other candidates.
- A market on Claude's unreleased model Mythos is up to 92¢ in just the last 3 hours. Currently, the June 10 market is sitting at 17¢. Claude Mythos has been locked behind Project Glasswing since April, used by 150 organizations across 15 countries to find vulnerabilities, and is
- Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" is now sitting at 96¢ Traders sold Alberta's independence market the moment a court issued a stay 12 hours ago the market was sitting at 74¢ Rules - the rules don't require a successful referendum just a
- What changed in the last 24 hours? White House tweet did not deny NYT's claims, just confirmed the review won't apply to all models. Some traders misread - selective review and took the market to 65¢ Smart traders read the EO and market priced YES at 45¢ selective review ≠Why No is still very much alive for Trump's AI federal review market at 58¢ "Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?" The EO dropped today: "promoting advanced AI innovation and security" Signed. Live. On the white house website. In the past 24 hours, the
- Why No is still very much alive for Trump's AI federal review market at 58¢ "Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?" The EO dropped today: "promoting advanced AI innovation and security" Signed. Live. On the white house website. In the past 24 hours, the
- Trump posted "the blockade will now be lifted" last week. And Polymarket said - not an announcement. "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?:May 31?" May 23, market was at 83¢. May 31, market came down to 0. And Poly's clarification came back - Ambiguous reason:
