Pinned
Otavio (Tavi) Costa
11.2K posts
Otavio (Tavi) Costa
@TaviCosta
Founder & CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. Macro thinker, history student, value-oriented investor. Native of Sao Paulo, Brazil š§š· E-mail: [email protected]
- So, the US government not only sold its oil reserves, but it also decided to sell its sour crude rather than sweet. To be clear: The current US refinery infrastructure *requires* sour crude to operate. This is the whole reason why despite the US being the largest oil producer
- Buying conditions for houses just declined to the lowest level in history.
- Silver is now officially considered a critical metal in the US. Game on.
- Meanwhile.... China continues to dump US Treasuries. Their holdings just reached new decade lows.
- Truly remarkable. Ā Nasdaq is just 2.6% from all-time highs while only 35% of its members are above 200-day moving average. Ā Such breath deterioration only happened at the peak of tech bubble. Ā Beware of times when the generals lead but the soldiers don't follow.
- Foreign central banks now officially hold more gold than US Treasuries ā for the first time since 1996. Ā Let that sink in. Ā If you think this buying streak is ending, just look at what happened in the 1970s. Ā This is likely the beginning of one of the most significant global
- Fair to say that consumer confidence in China has completely collapsed........
- QT ended up being transitory..... The Fed's balance sheet is now on a V-shape recovery
- The Fed is trapped. Letās dive in deeper. Thread ššš
- It's official. Silver just reached its highest quarterly close in history. Game on.
- Itās official. āØāØThe US Treasury curve is now more than 70% inverted. Ā In the last 50 years of history, every time we have surpassed this threshold a recession followed. Ā We are now at 76% with the Fed still hiking rates and doing QT.
- US state and local governments just experienced the worst decline in income tax revenues ever recorded. This was the second steepest year-over-year percentage decline in history, with only the GFC having a worse outcome. Note that Federal tax receipts are also dropped again,
- "Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average." ā Paul Tudor Jones
