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Well, it’s been a long road since I raced the dinosaurs at a New Year’s Day parkrun. I’ve managed various niggles (knee, glute, achilles… yawn).
Tim Harford
6,468 posts
Tim Harford
@TimHarford
Author How To Make The World Add Up (UK) / The Data Detective (US).
Cautionary Tales podcast.
Undercover Economist at the FT.
BBC More or Less.
Views my own.
- I wanted to share a few words about my father, Adrian Harford. Here he is, pictured in late March. A month later, he had died - much as he lived, calmly and always considerate of others.
- I've no great insight into Covid. I'm just a humble economist. But I do note that "scientists are divided" was very much a theme of Big Tobacco's "manufacture doubt" strategy to delay action on smoking-related diseases. See also: climate change denial.I can't even... Scientists aren't divided. There are maybe max 4 or 5 scientists pushing "let the young get it" in the media. On the other "side" are the CMO, CSO, NHS, BMA, WHO, ECDC, CDC, any pretty much any public health expert you care to name.
- Meanwhile, a Polish HGV driver tells @sarahoconnor_ "Why...go to Britain, jump all these hoops, face all this hostile environment, if you could go to Ireland or Holland, earn more, be respected, drive on nicer motorways...and be a free European?"
- It feels like a big day today, but let's remember that nobody has actually informed the virus that the pandemic is supposed to be over - so please be like the vast majority of people, keeping safe and being considerate.
- HAPPY WORLD STATISTICS DAY EVERYONE! World Statistics Day only comes every five years - like the Olympics - so it's time to express a little mindful gratitude for all the statisticians and other wonderful nerds out there helping us to understand the world.
GIF - 1/ Time for an apology and a correction. Seems that every newspaper in the UK is (correctly) reporting that I said the risk of catching a fatal case of Covid-19 is about the same as the risk of having a bath. I did say that, but I was wrong. Details below.
- So, I queued at a walk-in centre for my booster today. I was turned away because my 2nd jab was not a full six months ago (just 5 months & 3 weeks). There were five other people queuing. They were all turned away for the same reason. I must say I don't understand.
- A year after lockdown, what have we learnt? 1) The models which suggested hundreds of thousands of people could die got the big call right, and did so early. 2) Most people can be trusted to do the right thing even it means sacrifice. 3) When governments hesitate, people die.
- Heard an intriguing idea to solve fuel shortages today. Instead of fixing a maximum spend (eg £25), have a minimum spend (say, £60). Anyone just top-top-topping up their cars would stop. Only people running low would actually buy fuel.
- Replying to @TimHarford...but we also owe them for the care and sensitivity they showed both my mother and my father. My family is now raising money for the hospice, and any contributions to this hugely worthwhile cause are welcome. Please RT and spread the word in any case.
- It is the scene in the rear-view mirror that is truly horrifying. The British economy is in a generation-long slough of despond, a slow-burning economic catastrophe.
- NEW BOOK KLAXON I am very excited to tell you that "How To Make The World Add up" will be published in two months' time - 17 September. It's my attempt to distill what I've learned in over a decade working on @ftopinion @FTMag and of course @BBCMoreOrLess 1/
- Back in 1994/95, I studied mathematical logic with Liz Truss. Just the two of us + the prof. Cantor's infinities. Peano arithmetic. Turing machines. All the good stuff. I wonder if it will help her with the job? Let's hope so.
