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Unexpected Points Substack live. Daily articles, podcasts 2x per week, opportunities for subscriber interaction, and links to additional data in the posts. Up for a little over a week and nearing 1K subs
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Unexpected Points
1,046 posts
Unexpected Points
@Unexpected_Pts
Newsletter and podcast from @KevinCole___ on the analytical side of the NFL, advanced data and logical analysis to understand the game a little better
Joined October 2009
- We adjusted quarterback value for receivers, blocking, SOS and much more. The top-10 quarterbacks in adjusted value added this season:
- "Baseball teams have almost mini tech companies .... and NFL teams are nowhere near that level yet ... it's just one or two people" @Stat_Ron on the investment necessary to gain strategic insight from tracking data
00:00 - Replying to @Unexpected_PtsQuarterbacks with the biggest positive adjustments to according to our Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) metric. Accounts for receiver skill, blocking, SOS, weather, etc
- This week we have a discussion of macro issues in free agency, including how teams use the comp pick formula to create a positive feedback loop, and the NFL's rich get richer
00:00 - When it comes to player accolades and efficiency, no one comes close to Peyton Manning. 5x MVP, 7x First-Team All-Pro, 3x Second-Team All-Pro. 10x first or second in EPA per play (Brady 6x, Rodgers 4x, Brees 4x)
00:00 - Replying to @Unexpected_PtsBlasphemous NFL take No. 3 from @KevinColePFF: Kyle Shanahan is not a top-10 NFL head coach. The negatives of meddling in front office decisions, 4th down calls, etc, isn't offset by the efficiency of Shanahan's scheme, which hasn't been as successful as many think
00:00 - Others like Tony Gonzalez have longevity and better career totals, but Gronk's combination of peak production, efficiency and blocking makes him the GOAT among tight ends
00:00 - Some viz for the upcoming QB GOAT pod (10th-1st). Peyton Manning was MVP 5x, plus First-Team All-Pro (AP1) twice when a RB won MVP. So he was the best QB in the NFL seven different seasons. Also added three Second-Team All-Pros (AP2)
- Replying to @Unexpected_PtsBlasphemous NFL take No. 6 from @friscojosh: Abolish the salary cap. There's little evidence the cap has provided parity in the NFL, where dynasties like the Patriots have been more dominant than in sports with no/softer caps. Sorry, cap nerds, you're canceled
00:00 - NEW Pod with takemaster @friscojosh. Josh and Kevin burn down the NFL with 10 takes that are objectively very right, but sound very wrong to the football establishment youtube.com/watch?v=ORMYT9…
- Replying to @Unexpected_PtsOur top-12 quarterbacks in value added going into the final week of the regular season
- Replying to @Unexpected_PtsDoes Tony Romo belong in the HoF? His stat-based case is borderline, and he doesn't have longevity, playoff success or much in the way of accolades. Yes, Romo deserves it over someone like Eli Manning, but the case is tougher with a wider lens on all the greats who didn't make it
00:00 - Replying to @Unexpected_Pts and @friscojoshBlasphemous NFL take No. 1 from @KevinColePFF: Take head coaches completely out of the 4th down decision process. Humans generally make model-based decisions worse, and HCs have shown they only lean towards conservatism when adding their context
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