camilo (@curiouscamilo) / X

camilo

3,809 posts

camilo

@curiouscamilo

building a hedge fund native to prediction markets

nyc / bcn

camilo.markets

Born May 12

Joined February 2017

camilo
@curiouscamilo
Mar 3, 2024
.@BillAckman's resilience is unmatched: He faced a $4B loss, a divorce, a company takeover, and Brad Pitt eyeing his girlfriend. He then borrowed $300M, bought back his own stock (now worth 3,7x) and married that girlfriend. He's an absolute legend.
242K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Aug 25, 2025
prediction markets are still frontrunning Wall St @Kalshi remains a leading indicator for Tesla delivery numbers, outperforming @TroyTeslike, the best quantitative Tesla analyst, and Wall St. analysts' consensus in predictive accuracy this is a kindergarten-level arb,
Ali Partovi
@apartovi
Apr 3, 2024
Brilliant move: using @Kalshi predictions to arbitrage $TSLA and double your money. 🤯
184K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Oct 23, 2025
we are running a trading strat for college football prediction markets, taking live signals from students at the game. our systems automatically size and execute trades based on their input. we currently have presence in Stanford and Berkley. if you are a trader at a U.S.
Finn Murphy
@FinnMurphy12
Oct 22, 2025
Polymarket CEO at the Knicks literally on the phone front-running the markets on next to score - outrageous stuff
267K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Aug 26, 2025
like this post if you are a trader, quant or dev bullish prediction markets i'm building an army
26K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Aug 29, 2025
we are in the early stages of building this! reach out if you’re a quant or dev interested in building in this space
rahulxkm
@rahulxkm
Aug 29, 2025
in the next 6–8 months, we’ll see the first polymarket-only trading fund size: prolly < $10M not hft (liquidity isn’t there yet) strategy: mix of ai + human experts (history, politics) it will easily outperform most other types of funds
75K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Sep 1, 2025
less than 1% of price observations between Polymarket and Deribit bitcoin options contain actionable risk-free arbitrage
45K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Sep 15, 2025
00:06
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Sep 15, 2025
the stock market is a prediction market for companies' future free cash flow
38K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Aug 31, 2025
some thoughts I had talking with @oxbquant last night: 1. if you continuously optimize for +ev, the probability that you become a normie rounds to 1. 2. just being right doesn’t make money, but being right when the odds are against you does. 3. in a world addicted to
81K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
May 8, 2025
moved to sf !!!
15K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Feb 11, 2018
Replying to @fhurst4762 @jaygalbraith and @elonmusk
28.000 Km/hour.
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Aug 27, 2025
prediction markets will become the financial market's new lingua franca they are the common denominator connected in one way or another to every asset class they distill the complexities of investing into a single equation of risk, return, and probability they are the most
22K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Sep 15, 2025
the stock market is a prediction market for companies' future free cash flow
00:00
55K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
May 19, 2025
Replying to @EricJorgenson
44K
camilo
@curiouscamilo
Jul 24, 2025
estimating @Polymarket 's potential revenue if it were to implement the same fee structure as @Kalshi: 1) source data from the underlying blockchain polymarket runs on (@0xPolygon) 2) model kalshi's two-tiered fee structure, comprising separate taker and maker concave functions
17K