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Timely discussion of US-China trade
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David Dollar
1,449 posts
David Dollar
@davidrdollar
Host @BrookingsInst trade podcast, Dollar and Sense. Senior fellow @BrookingsChina. Former World Bank and Treasury rep in Beijing
Joined October 2013
- Thru June, US trade deficit w China is down, but up with most other partners and overall; trade war is leading to inefficient reallocation of China trade to other partners, higher costs for US firms and consumers
- Trump's trade war is turning the US into a planned economy with firms ordered to stop doing business with China and tens of thousands of firms applying to Commerce for licenses to import their needed inputs
- US trade deficit is being reallocated from China to other countries but not coming down
- Trump: "we’re being hurt very badly by China with devaluation"; no, China not pushing down yuan, dollar rising against all other currencies
- Why globalization is shifting in favor of India, not China brook.gs/3xutMEm via @BrookingsInst @arvindsubraman argues that India’s convergence prospects are improving while China faces growing headwinds
- #ChinaTradeDeal in 20 words: unrealistic purchase numbers; important steps on market access, IPR, currency already announced or implemented; nothing on cyber theft, SOEs, subsidies
- What’s the best case scenario for US-China relations? brookings.edu/articles/whats… I talk w @ryanl_hass newly appointed director of the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings
- Manufacturing employment has already turned negative in Wisconsin and PennsylvaniaThe slowdown in manufacturing has been apparent in the employment data for sometime. The question is whether/when we get to contraction as in late 2016.
- On Monday, @BrookingsInst is launching the all-new #DollarandSense podcast on all things trade, hosted by yours truly. Take a sneak peek and subscribe today:
- US manufacturing trade deficit keeps growing under TrumpHow long can the world's largest economy go without any real export growth? Excluding petrol (which has done well) and ag (which hasn't), U.S. real goods exports are below where they were five years ago ... (1/x)
- Why it’s time to end the tit-for-tat tariffs in the U.S.-China trade war brook.gs/2QuzahY via @BrookingsInst Peter Petri and I argue that the tariffs will hurt the US economy, not draw major concessions, and risk escalating into a new Cold War
- US trade data thru July shows reduced imports from China more than compensated by increased imports from other partners: Mexico, developing Asia, Europe; overall trade deficit keeps rising; trade war leads to inefficient reallocation without much effect on overall trade balances
- And never a woman on the standing committee, in 70 years“Half the sky,” a fraction of the parade
