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Oleg Itskhoki
@itskhoki
Professor of Economics @Harvard. Infrequently tweet thoughts and re-post links, rarely engage on this platform, looking forward to a less toxic social media.
Cambridge MA
itskhoki.com
Joined May 2012
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Apr 5, 2025
    *Trade war: my theory of the case* 1. What is the goal/ideal outcome/trump admin hopes: 10% tariff across the board with no retaliation + direct non-tariff favors from other countries to settle this at 10% + a possible full-scale bilateral trade war with China. (1/n)
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Mar 23, 2022
    w/@sguriev we argue that European embargo on Russian oil and gas is the fastest way to end the war by stopping Putin’s ability to finance it. Any other policy option is more costly and dangerous. It is not just a humanitarian, but also an economic imperative for Europe. 1/n
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Apr 8, 2022
    A comment I often hear: oil/gas embargo has little effect on Putin’s ability to continue the war. This is wrong. In fact, the correct calculus: each marginal euro received from energy exports to Europe contributes exactly one euro to the war in Europe, as simple as that. 1/n
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Feb 27, 2022
    Мы считаем, что действия руководства России наносят огромный ущерб будущему России. Развязывая войну против Украины, руководители России действуют против интересов российских граждан. Мы требуем немедленного прекращения агрессии!
    sites.google.com
    Stop the War
    Мы, сообщество экономистов, работающих в университетах и научно-исследовательских центрах в России и за ее пределами, заявляем решительный протест против войны, начатой 24 февраля 2022 года российс...
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Mar 14, 2022
    I am bewildered by the arguments I occasionally hear from my European colleagues and friends, including that putin needs a “face-saving exit so he can gracefully resign” and that the costs of shutting down gas supplies from Russia are too high. 1/n
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Apr 3, 2025
    For those who still honor GE, the optimal macro import tariff is decreasing in the trade deficit:
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Mar 23, 2022
    Replying to @itskhoki
    Yes, this embargo is costly for Europe, but its costs are manageable. More importantly, not imposing the embargo has much larger costs. Pre-war status quo is not an option. The war is an economic disaster for Europe, prolonging it will result in much higher economic costs. 3/n
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Mar 23, 2022
    Replying to @itskhoki
    Foreign cash Putin receives is used to continue the war in Europe. Depletion of foreign currency undermines Putin's ability to finance it, but also to pay policemen & propagandists - the key pillars of his oppressive regime at home, making further foreign aggression inviable. 4/n
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Jun 4, 2022
    Please watch cnn.com/shows/navalny-… and donate to @fbkinfo
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    Navalny | CNN
    From cnn.com
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Mar 23, 2022
    Replying to @itskhoki
    Indisputably, embargo hurts ordinary Russians. Yet, not imposing sanctions does not help them, as Putin reorients Russia’s fiscal resources towards this war, and has already destroyed welfare of hundred million people. Rebuilding Russian economy requires stopping the war. 6/n
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Aug 10, 2022
    What we know for sure is that every euro received for Russian exports is used by Putin to finance his war against Europe currently fought in Ukraine. We also now know approximate magnitudes of war expenditure - €500m/day - comparable to what Europe pays Russia…
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Apr 8, 2022
    Replying to @itskhoki
    Therefore, every marginal euro of exports now goes directly to the war fund. The ability to redirect energy exports to other countries is very limited, whether by sea or by pipelines East. So one-for-one is the correct estimate. It is in Europe's hands to stop it now. n/n
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Mar 23, 2022
    Replying to @itskhoki
    Complete export substitution towards China and other countries is impossible. More importantly, the embargo is the ultimate statement of resolve and unity from the West, which will make it much easier to bring China onboard… 5/n
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    Oleg Itskhoki
    @itskhoki
    Mar 19, 2025
    America first?
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