Tobias (@kingfishcap) / X

Tobias

1,008 posts

Tobias

@kingfishcap

Searching for positive expected value in financial markets & others. 23 years old. Special situations.

Sydney, Australia

kingfishcapital.substack.com

Joined April 2023

Pinned
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Jun 12
New article out now! Since my initial coverage: - Damages figure has been uplifted 2x (26x MC) - BF filed counter memorial = locked into case - Management bought even more stock (~16%) - Assets worth 30% of MC were divested Yet the price is the exact same as before... $SRR.ax
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Jul 31, 2025
$SRR.ax - One of my best finds. You guys know where to find it…
3.3K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Nov 1, 2024
Replying to @capital_bro
Try 7 years at 22 yrs old. Then try losing 60% of ur networth the same month. Get ready for the loneliest most gruesome nights of your life, my only advice is to embrace it.
147K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Mar 3, 2024
Want to learn how I've managed to achieve a -50% return in 6 months? A thread: - This serves as a good reminder that worst case scenarios can happen, and they may happen consecutively, one after another. 1/17
141K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Nov 24, 2024
Yep, profile pic checks out. Physiognomy is real.
20K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Nov 2, 2024
Replying to @capital_bro
My advice is “dont let shit go quiet, because thats when things get loud” Be constantly moving and improving. Realise that the only person who can save you from this is you and you only. Not family, friends or a rebound relationship, just you.
4.8K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Feb 23, 2024
Here's a short summary: Ascent Resources PLC (AST.LON) MC: $6 million ADV: $0-$50k Has an international arbitration claim against Slovenia for damages of 650mil euro, which is total investment + interest + revenues from project (investment was 50mil over 11 years) 1/9
51K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Oct 20, 2023
Current largest position: 15% of total portfolio. Something i'd simply label as a positive expected value special situation. I present PAC.AX. thread
49K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Mar 3, 2024
It's going to be the longest, most gruelling, tiresome, journey back but personally, I can't wait. I'm going to: - Double my spend on research services/books so I can learn more - Take every opportunity I get from meeting people on X - Post as many solid deep dives as I can
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Mar 3, 2024
Want to learn how I've managed to achieve a -50% return in 6 months? A thread: - This serves as a good reminder that worst case scenarios can happen, and they may happen consecutively, one after another. 1/17
7.5K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Apr 14, 2024
If anyone is looking for a +EV lottery ticket, look into $ABCP. Timeline: Sep 2024 Upside: Around 8x of current MC net of litigation funding costs. Sits at 17mil MC. CEO has funded the entire litigation himself, has poured multi millions into it.
18K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Aug 16, 2024
Lets try again, Want to learn how I've managed to achieve a 47.3%+ return in 5 months. (1/24) A thread:
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Mar 3, 2024
Want to learn how I've managed to achieve a -50% return in 6 months? A thread: - This serves as a good reminder that worst case scenarios can happen, and they may happen consecutively, one after another. 1/17
26K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Sep 19, 2024
Replying to @Larryjamieson_
If women looked like that in my econ classes i’d actually go to them.
6.8K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Mar 3, 2024
Replying to @kingfishcap
This post will likely get no traction and I'll probs lose followers because of it as people always wrongly correlate losses = bad speculator. There's x chance this occurred regardless of "how good I am". I don't really care, my process is solid and in public view (sbstck) 16/17
4.5K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Aug 21, 2024
Replying to @plebcapital and @ato_gov_au
Why is the Gold Coast full of grifters? I’ve got a lot of stories.
3K
Tobias
@kingfishcap
Mar 3, 2024
Replying to @kingfishcap
Another example I just remembered: 3 days before FTX collapsed I decided to get some crypto exposure, ETH and some other coins. I deposited a decent chunk of money, it’s sitting at a ~400% gain as of right now, which i’ll never get to see… If you don’t laugh, you’ll cry.
4.1K