Leopold Aschenbrenner (@leopoldasch) / X

Leopold Aschenbrenner

1,093 posts

Leopold Aschenbrenner

@leopoldasch

situational-awareness.ai

San Francisco 🇺🇸

Joined January 2015

Pinned
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Jun 4, 2024
Virtually nobody is pricing in what's coming in AI. I wrote an essay series on the AGI strategic picture: from the trendlines in deep learning and counting the OOMs, to the international situation and The Project. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead
8.1M
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Jun 21, 2024
"I realized the other day...they need electricity... they need double what we have right now"
00:57
Tsarathustra
@tsarnick
Jun 21, 2024
Donald Trump says AI is causing an unprecedented demand for electricity which will require new energy solutions, including nuclear energy
54M
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Mar 23, 2023
Best thing I’ve read on GPT-4’s capabilities. You should read it. Impressive qualitative jump over ChatGPT. It’s definitely not just memorizing, it’s learning to think and reason. Probably the most important thing happening in the world right now. Thread with some highlights:
Sebastien Bubeck
@SebastienBubeck
Mar 23, 2023
At @MSFTResearch we had early access to the marvelous #GPT4 from @OpenAI for our work on @bing. We took this opportunity to document our experience. We're so excited to share our findings. In short: time to face it, the sparks of #AGI have been ignited. arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712
1.6M
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Jun 4, 2024
AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.
7.7M
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Mar 14, 2023
Really great to see pre-deployment AI risk evals like this starting to happen
1M
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Mar 16, 2024
One year since GPT-4 release. Hope you all enjoyed some time to relax; it’ll have been the slowest 12 months of AI progress for quite some time to come.
728K
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Jun 4, 2024
Apparently this episode made Dwarkesh’s editor quit because the AI discussion stressed him out too much. Enjoy!
Dwarkesh Patel
@dwarkesh_sp
Jun 4, 2024
.@leopoldasch on: - the trillion dollar cluster - unhobblings + scaling = 2027 AGI - CCP espionage at AI labs - leaving OpenAI and starting an AGI investment firm - dangers of outsourcing clusters to the Middle East - The Project Full episode (including the last 32 minutes cut
00:00
608K
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Oct 11, 2024
The “compressed 21st century”: a great essay on what it might look like to make 100 years of progress in 10 years post AGI (if all goes well). Favorite phrase: “a country of geniuses in a datacenter”
Dario Amodei
@DarioAmodei
Oct 11, 2024
Machines of Loving Grace: my essay on how AI could transform the world for the better darioamodei.com/machines-of-lo…
441K
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Dec 13, 2021
This stat still gets me: the Mormon fertility rate is falling precipitously, now barely above replacement (!!) If even the Mormons are headed this way, what hope is there for the rest of us? eternalanglo.com/mormon-fertili…
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Jun 4, 2024
Replying to @leopoldasch
Full series as PDF: situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/upl… Read online: situational-awareness.ai
511K
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Aug 17, 2021
Incredible. German military plane—one that could fit hundreds—sent to Kabul with much fanfare. It leaves with only 7 people on board. Others weren’t on the official list. German bureaucracy at its finest.
Erik Marquardt
@ErikMarquardt
Aug 16, 2021
Der deutsche A400M ist nun laut @BILD mit 7 Personen aus #Kabul abgeflogen. Statt unbürokratisch möglichst viele zu retten, werden viele Ortskräfte noch nicht einmal registriert, um auf die Listen für Flieger zu kommen. Unsere Bürokratie tötet, was für ein Versagen. #kabulairport
bild.de
Afghanistan: Flugzeug in Kabul gelandet – Bundeswehr evakuiert erste Deutsche
Bundeswehrsoldaten sollen deutsche Staatsbürger und Ortskräfte aus Kabul vor den Taliban retten.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Aug 12, 2025
Exclusive | Billions Flow to New Hedge Funds Focused on AI-Related Bets
From wsj.com
298K
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
May 10, 2023
China surely has a team dedicated to infiltrating OpenAI at this point, right? China hawks 🤝 AI safety worriers: lock down infosec at AI labs. AGI would be the most powerful weapon man has ever created; this needs "nuclear secrets" rather than "random startup"-level security
213K
Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch
Jun 6, 2024
The trillion-dollar cluster will take >20% of current US electricity production.
147K