Natalie Jackson (@nataliemj10) / X

Natalie Jackson

978 posts

Natalie Jackson

@nataliemj10

Independent pollster, columnist @nationaljournal, polsci PhD Rural TX native, WTAMU/OU alum Opinions my own.

Washington, DC

herdingcatsnj.substack.com

Born August 10

Joined November 2011

Pinned
Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
Feb 15
"You see, the country has mood swings." ... "I could explain it better, but I'd need charts and graphs and an easel."
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
May 27, 2025
Not getting enough attention IMO.
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
Aug 18, 2025
Joe Biden wasn't president before or during the last census.
Miranda Devine
@mirandadevine
Aug 18, 2025
Item 2 is up: Joe Biden threw open the border to rig the census — and elections for Democrats... with a ⁦@Rasmussen_Poll⁩ to guide the way. nypost.com/2025/08/18/opi…
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
May 18, 2025
There's a great NYT piece from @RuthIgielnik out today - she demonstrates how voters who are paying more attention to specific news stories are less likely to approve of Trump. This generally goes with a key finding from the election - that less regular/informed voters were
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
Apr 29, 2025
Replying to @nataliemj10
Republicans also pretty overwhelmingly want Trump to work with Congress rather than use executive orders to get stuff done. And they want Congress to push back when they disagree.
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
Jun 22, 2025
Extremely important point as we see polling emerge on the strikes this weekend. To a significant degree, results will depend on how it's asked.
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
May 29, 2025
This is a genuinely striking chart. Reps are back where they were in 2016 (and just slightly lower than 2018-19), but the trend difference from everyone else is pretty wild. As you can see, there was always a big party gap - but it was moving in the same direction. No more.
4.8K
Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
Jun 17, 2025
This is the most obvious and striking example of recency bias I've seen in a long time. There's just no comparing where we are now to a time period in which we killed 700,000 of each other - more than 2% of the entire country's population. That would be 7.5 million in today's
4.5K
Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
Aug 17, 2025
These charts from the @ChicagoCouncil surveys are fascinating. You can see Republicans literally changing their views on Ukraine as quickly as Trump does. It's rare we see opinion so clearly boomerang over this short amount of time even though we know it happens.
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
Jun 11, 2025
Global confidence in Trump: Canada: 22% Mexico: 8% ... I'd imagine Canadians and Mexicans feel roughly the same if you adjust for Canadian politeness.
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
Aug 18, 2025
More of this college class, please. I like talking to people who disagree with me. It broadens my perspective and makes me better at articulating what I care about - as well as realizing what hills I don't care to die on.
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
May 20, 2025
For @nationaljournal this week, I wrote about the themes from last week's polling conference (#AAPOR). -Weighting to 2024 vote worked. It's unclear it will work for 2026. -Low propensity voters are the key to measuring Trump support. It's unclear whether they will show up in
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Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
Jun 22, 2025
Beware of single night polls. Things may look different as events bake in - Also think about who is at their computer answering polls on a Saturday night. This is an interesting first look, though, and fwiw shows about what I’d expect.
Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn
Jun 22, 2025
lol that was fast
6.3K
Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10
May 24, 2025
"Politics is more difficult than physics" -Albert Einstein
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