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The Quantum Threat to Blockchains - 2026 Report
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Project Eleven
1,902 posts
Project Eleven
@projecteleven
Securing digital assets for the post-quantum era
Joined November 2024
- Replying to @projectelevenRead the full Quantum Computing and Blockchains paper from BlackRock: blackrock.com/us/individual/…
- Replying to @projectelevenThe conclusion from BlackRock's Quantum Computing and Blockchains paper: "It is a much less daunting task to upgrade current cryptographic systems (including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others) to a quantum-secure standard than it is to build a CRQC from where quantum computing
- Replying to @projecteleven10. BlackRock says quantum risk may be one of the last major “walls of worry” for digital assets, and resolving it could increase valuations. This is the institutional-investor framing. BlackRock says quantum-negative headlines are hard to quantify, but they view quantum risk as
- Replying to @projecteleven9. Ethereum is described as more technically complex than Bitcoin, but with a clearer roadmap. The report says Ethereum has a more defined migration path, but faces more layers of quantum vulnerability: validator BLS signatures, KZG proofs, EOA signatures, and application-layer
- Replying to @projecteleven8. BlackRock explicitly mentions PQ BIPs and Taproot-based migration paths, along with zero-knowledge proof migrations even after PQ migration is complete. They say several post-quantum-related Bitcoin Improvement Proposals have been accepted into the repository, though still in
- Replying to @projecteleven7. BlackRock calls Bitcoin’s PQ migration technically easier than building a CRQC, but socially hard. They say implementing PQ signatures in Bitcoin is a much lower hurdle than the remaining challenges to build a functional CRQC. But Bitcoin’s problem is governance: no central
- Replying to @projecteleven6. They say short-range attacks may be “in play.” Historically, the comforting view was that exposed old addresses are the problem, and normal hashed addresses are safe unless a quantum computer can break ECC inside Bitcoin’s ~10-minute block window. BlackRock says Google’s
- Replying to @projecteleven5. Satoshi’s coins are explicitly part of the debate. BlackRock notes that migration is not possible for inactive/lost-key UTXOs, including the roughly 1.1 million BTC in P2PK addresses widely believed to be Satoshi’s. They also cite estimates that 2.3–3.7 million BTC, or 11–19%
- Replying to @projecteleven4. Nearly 7 million BTC, about 35% of circulating supply, is potentially vulnerable to long-range quantum attacks. BlackRock says roughly 1.9 million BTC sit in address types that expose unhashed public keys, and another 5 million BTC are in reused addresses where public keys
- Replying to @projecteleven3. BlackRock notes the migration timelines from major players, and the challenges for blockchains. "Decentralized blockchains also face unique challenges in managing PQ migrations relative to traditional, centralized cyber infrastructure: without a singular authority enforcing
- Replying to @projecteleven2. BlackRock frames crypto as the "most readily monetizable honey pot” for quantum attackers. BlackRock says cryptocurrencies are one of the first things discussed in quantum-risk conversations. Digital assets, as we have been saying, are an obvious economic target once a CRQC
- Replying to @projecteleven1. BlackRock says Q-Day has moved from “decades away” to "something that could arrive well within the coming decade.” Recent breakthroughs have pulled forward timelines. They cite Google moving its migration deadline to 2029 and IBM targeting large-scale fault-tolerant quantum
