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semaji.eth
961 posts
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semaji.eth
@semajeth
Formerly HFT QT. Used to write at semaji.substack.com. Quant trading, prediction markets, crypto.
Joined November 2021
663
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2,264
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  • Pinned
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    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Oct 6, 2025
    Article cover image
    Article
    The Liquidity Problem in Prediction Markets, Part II: Adverse Selection in Prediction Markets
    Following on from my second article, this post - the third of a planned five - will be a broad overview of adverse selection in prediction markets and why traditional market maker safeguards are...
    52K
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Sep 11, 2025
    Article cover image
    Article
    The Liquidity Problem in Prediction Markets: Part 0
    tl;dr The claims of mass adoption of prediction markets are overly optimistic when viewed from the lens of market makers, who are the primary sources of liquidity in all major markets including...
    83K
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Apr 30, 2022
    My second post on Substack, on @Uniswap's v3 update, is live! In short, it is a commentary on the broad unprofitability of v3 LPs (in particular passive and retail) and Uniswap's neglect in ameliorating the issue.
    Image
    In the Long Run, We Are All Dead: The Fate of Passive Retail Liquidity Provision in Uniswap v3
    From semaji.substack.com
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Sep 15, 2025
    Article cover image
    Article
    The Liquidity Problem in Prediction Markets, Part I: Adverse Selection and Market Making
    Following on from my first article, this post - the second of a planned five - will be a broad overview of adverse selection, the dynamics of market making, and examples of how providing liquidity can...
    45K
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Apr 13, 2022
    My first Substack post on @dopex_io's $DPX is live! A lot of the analyses of Dopex are from 2021 and/or too brief to onboard genuinely new faces: this post is designed to act as the definitive introduction to Dopex as of mid-April 2022.
    Image
    The Definitive Guide to Dopex ($DPX)
    From semaji.substack.com
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Jan 11, 2022
    Messari shilling our DPX bags, you absolutely love to see it. If you don't think @dopex_io, @tztokchad and the boys are going to ruthlessly colonise the decentralised options space you're stuck in Q3 2021. This is a trillion-dollar market: you're earlier than early. #dpx #rdpx
    user avatar
    Messari
    @MessariCrypto
    Jan 11, 2022
    Replying to @MessariCrypto
    3/ @ribbonfinance popularized structured products in crypto and subsequently dominated the sector until Q4'21 when other protocols began to launch. @Dopex is now rapidly catching up, as well as @friktion_labs and @Katana_HQ, however the TVL gap remains relatively large.
    Q4 Structured Product Vault TVL by Protocol
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Oct 10, 2025
    Insider trading is fine, actually, because it helps people get information quicker! Exactly what utility was derived from potential knowledge of the Nobel Prize winner a day earlier is left unmentioned for obvious reasons (there is effectively none whatsoever).
    user avatar
    Jason Furman
    @jasonfurman
    Oct 10, 2025
    Replying to @bohumilo
    That's what I told the student, that I wasn't actually that bothered by insider trading in these markets because it helped everyone else get information more quickly and reliably which I view as their main benefit.
    17K
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Sep 16, 2025
    Anyone who is posting "How I made 100k on Polymarket via Arbitrage" type threads should be required to dox their wallet. There is already one notorious larp who has received thousands of followers off total fabrication of his own profitability. This is predatory behaviour.
    4.7K
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Jan 13, 2022
    "We're currently exploring Atlantic options for @dopex_io, which are a cross between European and American options" - @Tetranode Huge. As far as I know, this would be the first-of-its-kind in crypto. Atlantic options aren't directly accessible anywhere else. $DPX killing it.
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Jan 15, 2022
    Replying to @stormrdoteth and @gainzxbt
    Please no don't encourage him with these cursed iterations
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Apr 30, 2022
    Replying to @semajeth and @Uniswap
    In short: v3's concentrated liquidity mechanics have proved very profitable for swappers, but have empirically punished LPs: the claims of v3 to 'capital efficiency' must be greatly qualified, and the externalities of its design for LPs admitted.
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Nov 21, 2021
    Replying to @cyounessi1
    It is a difficult, thorny issue that provokes strong emotions for good reason. Let us get the obvious out of the way: it is likely the most profitable move to jump ship from ETH to a series of generically-designed centralised VC-vested L1s as they pump, before returning to ETH
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Nov 9, 2022
    Replying to @0xfbifemboy
    "Suppose FTXA is trading at $1.00 and FTXB is trading at $0.00, which one might naively consider to be worthless. Is there an arbitrage here? Poll below."
  • user avatar
    semaji.eth
    @semajeth
    Jul 24, 2022
    Great article on Uni v3 from @gammaswaplabs: really gets going when it argues that the lowered returns v3 LPs face vs v2 LPs is partially caused by Uniswap only allowing the selling of volatility, not the buying, thus creating IV market inefficiencies.
    Image
    Uniswap Liquidity Provision: Is the Yield Worth the Risk?
    From medium.com

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