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Toby Shevlane
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Toby Shevlane
@tshevl
@_Mantic_AI cofounder & CEO, on a mission to solve forecasting. Prev: research scientist @GoogleDeepMind, PhD at @UniofOxford.
London, England
Joined September 2016
1,701
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Mar 20
    I always dreamed of AGI as a wise advisor for humanity. Although LLMs are great for coding & knowledge work, I wouldn’t trust them to give me advice on my career, business strategy, or policy preferences. How can we build AI systems optimized for wisdom? At Mantic we believe the
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    Tinker
    Thinking Machines
    @tinkerapi
    Mar 20
    Mantic used Tinker to RL gpt-oss-120b on judgmental forecasting; the result outperformed frontier models on event predictions. Combined with @_Mantic_AI's forecasting architecture, task-specific training takes us to the cusp of automated superforecasting.
    176K
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    May 16, 2022
    Chinchilla and I speaking in a made-up language 😂
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    May 11, 2022
    😅Chinchilla drawing analogies between concepts:
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Oct 14, 2025
    I got back from honeymoon last summer and handed in my resignation at DeepMind. My wife thought I was crazy. AI has always been about prediction, but normally we predict small things: a token of text, or moves in chess. The ultimate challenge is to predict the world’s most
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    203K
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Mar 14, 2023
    2018 evals, GPT-1: "Our method significantly outperforms the baselines on four of the five datasets" 2023 evals: "Preliminary assessments of GPT-4’s abilities...found it ineffective at autonomously replicating, acquiring resources, and avoiding being shut down “in the wild.”"
    61K
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Nov 15, 2024
    Personal news: after 2.5 great years @GoogleDeepMind I've left for a new project. I was sad to go but was too excited about the new thing. I don't have much to share yet but in short I persuaded my most cracked friend to leave his job and we're trying to build an LLM
    73K
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Jun 2, 2023
    Satya Nadella reportedly said about GPT-4: “OpenAI built this with 250 people. Why do we have Microsoft Research at all?" But just as unbelievable: Anthropic built Claude with even fewer people
    93K
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Feb 16, 2023
    I am so grateful for Bing for saving me from the hackers that were targeting me. This really is an amazing product. 💓
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    59K
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Mar 11, 2023
    we can't compete
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    34K
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    May 9, 2022
    It took some hand-holding, but here is Flamingo 🦩 doing joke explanation:
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Apr 6, 2022
    Replying to @sama
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Oct 27, 2022
    When it comes to risks from AI, I much prefer focussing on the near-term risks like job losses, surveillance, and misaligned AGI.
  • user avatar
    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Mar 21, 2024
    In 2024, the AI community will develop more capable AI systems than ever before. How do we know what new risks to protect against, and what the stakes are? Our research team at @GoogleDeepMind built a set of evaluations to measure potentially dangerous capabilities: 🧵
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    61K
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    Toby Shevlane
    @tshevl
    Nov 14, 2024
    Thoughts on LLM scaling slowing down: - We should separate "scaling has plateaued" and "the scaling laws still hold but they were always a power law" (see x-axis). - There was nearly 2 years between GPT-3 and GPT-4. The same wait gets us to next month. I think we're not actually
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    29K

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