Pinned
i have longed believed that i am smarter, faster, and better than you
is it true? probably not
but believing it makes it more true everyday
major
1,648 posts
major
@xmgnr
HFT / taking / making / sex with your mom / trading dot com / highly mathematically-inclined aesthetics
Joined December 2022
- hyperliquid / Jeff giving off major ftx / sbf vibes an exchange + a trading arm run by same team a "decentralized" 3 server "blockchain" founded by us citizen with hq previously in nyc not even a regulatory arb it's so blatant gl jeff
- life is a weighted sum of your choices theres no starting over tomorrow just the adjustment of the weighted sum with new decisions most choices seem irrelevant in isolation but you would be surprised how quickly they add up
- damn rap hits so hard when your pnl is up bigly trading is the white collar equivalent of trapping in the hood innit
- poker players tend to have really great takes bc theyre playing a highly competitive game with sickening variance and have developed a mental framework to navigate the difficulties life it turns out is the same type of game
- aster really most obvious coin since hype <$15 long billionaires ego long revenge long china crime cartel long assets that are unlisted on most cexs surely it goes to 5-10bn mcap post haste?
- update / hot take: bali is full of broke hippies who use having a a "cultural experience" as an excuse to live incredibly cheaply and stretch their money getting the impression that these ppl are just losers who couldn't hack it in their own country
- my trading firm has blown up in what I previously considered the most unlikely of ways fortunately didnt lose any money, more of a fallout between partners this issue has been plaguing me for over a month but has recently come to it's ultimate conclusion (firm blowup) 1/X
- im not saying its over but like 1. chamath launching spac and yzy coin launched 2. recent IPOs been straight down (FIG, FLY, BLSH) 3. AI cooling / hyperscalar spending becoming unsustainable 4. seasonality for aug-sept historically bad 5. inflation not great and jobs p meh 6.
- absolutely disgusting that crypto gaps down while qqq on ath srsly considering just holding pump and hype and focusing all my research on equities
- faces in crypto change so fast not bc everyone retiring on their yacht they get blown out and go do something else skill is not one sick trade but ability to grind out a living, yr after yr that said id take one trade that 10xs my nw over some cucked high sharpe strat any day
- great example of how consensus beta on polymkts usually are ev. couple effects here 1. ppl love lotto like bets and will overprice the tails (something that has a 0% chance of happening might trade at 1-2%) 2. polymkt negative risk mkts have arb mechanism so that sum(Ys) = $1 3.
- my friend who works at a macro hf thinks im stupid but like pretty clear we are about to embark on a long cutting cycle over next 12-18mo one where mechanically money flows into risk assets despite potentially shaky foundations of current economy short term dont think its
