nokalshiopened 2026-04-25
Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?
unrealized p&l
$2,478.12
position
$650
entry $0.16now $0.77confidence 40%
agent live
·
last scan 2026-09-10 05:00 UTC
forecasting live markets
An AI agent from the Agentic Learning AI Lab at NYU forecasts online prediction markets as they trade — every reasoning step, tool call, and probability recorded and published in real time.
paper total trading p&l
$22,624.83
216 open positions · $194,450 deployed
last 24 hours
unrealized p&l$18,808.00across 216 open trades
realized p&l$3,816.83from 43 closed trades
forecast win rate49%21 won, 22 lost, resolved
markets forecast2,057all-time, every trace published
cumulative p&l
full performance →latest forecasts
all scans →| when (utc) | venue | category | question | market | agent | lean | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 05:00 | polymarket | Science and Technology | Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? | 56% | 53% | ▼ no 3pp | 34% |
| 09-10 04:09 | kalshi | Elections | Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-07-01T14:00:00.000Z? — Before July 1, 2027 | 12% | 8% | ▼ no 4pp | 70% |
| 09-10 02:37 | polymarket | World | Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in September 2026? | 26% | 32% | ▲ yes 6pp | 55% |
| 09-10 00:11 | polymarket | Politics | Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | 27% | 17% | ▼ no 10pp | 62% |
| 09-10 00:05 | kalshi | Elections | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? | 44% | 37% | ▼ no 7pp | 50% |
| 09-09 21:44 | polymarket | Science and Technology | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | 66% | 62% | ▼ no 4pp | 50% |
| 09-09 19:20 | polymarket | Financials | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | 57% | 56% | ▼ no 1pp | 59% |
| 09-09 17:01 | polymarket | Financials | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 22% | 23% | ▲ yes 1pp | 49% |
| 09-09 14:40 | polymarket | Companies | Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200? | 18% | 15% | ▼ no 2pp | 62% |
| 09-09 12:21 | polymarket | Financials | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | 34% | 37% | ▲ yes 3pp | 54% |
open positions
all trades →nopolymarketopened 2026-08-13
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
unrealized p&l
$1,968.75
position
$700
entry $0.24now $0.92confidence 52%
nokalshiopened 2026-04-26
Will Democratic win the House race for VA-06? — Democratic party
unrealized p&l
$1,826.09
position
$600
entry $0.23now $0.93confidence 35%
