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NWS Climate Prediction Center

@NWSCPC
Official X account for the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Details: weather.gov/nws_x
College Park, MD
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Joined June 2012
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    NWS Climate Prediction Center
    @NWSCPC
    10h
    El Nino and the MJO favor an active East and Central Pacific with a significant chance of tropical cyclone development from August 26 to September 8. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci…
    The Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards Outlook released August 18, 2026 for the valid period of August 26, 2026 through September 8, 2026. More than a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone development is indicated for the East Pacific from August 26 to September 1; with a 40 to 60 percent chance closer to the Central Pacific. From September 2-8, a 20 to 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone development is designated for the East and Central Pacific. This product is updated once per week and targets broad scale conditions integrated over a 7-day period for US interests only. This graphic does not indicate track or potential landfall of tropical systems. Refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
  • user avatar
    NWS Climate Prediction Center
    @NWSCPC
    Aug 17
    Extreme Heat and Rapid Onset Drought over the Southern U.S.
    Key Message for Extreme Heat and Rapid Onset Drought over the Southern U.S. issued Aug 17, 2026. For Aug 25 to 31, over 60 percent chances of above-normal temperatures are indicated across much of the Southwest, Central, and Southern U.S. 70 to 80 percent chances of above-normal temperatures are indicated over southwestern Texas. A high risk (greater than 60 percent chance) of extreme heat covers the parts of the Southern and Central Plains, adjacent areas of the Mississippi Valley Aug 25 to 26. Moderate risk (40 to 60 percent chance) of extreme heat indicated for much of the Central and Southern Plains, Rockies, Desert Southwest, parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent parts of the Southeast Aug 25 to 28. Slight risk (20 to 40 percent chance) of extreme heat indicated for portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast  Aug 25 to 31. Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk for
  • user avatar
    NWS Climate Prediction Center
    @NWSCPC
    Aug 13
    Key Message for Prolonged Southern U.S. Heat Wave and Rapid Onset Drought
    Key Message for Prolonged Southern U.S. Heat Wave and Rapid Onset Drought issued August 10, 2026, updated August 13, 2026, for August 21–27. A greater than 60 percent chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast for August 21–27. A high risk (greater than 60 percent chance) of extreme heat affects the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley August 21, with heat indices possibly reaching over 105 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit and near-record overnight lows possible. A moderate risk (40 to 60 percent) is indicated for the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast August 21 to 23, and a slight risk indicated for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic August 21 to 27. Rapid Onset Drought is underway across the Central/Southern Plains and
  • user avatar
    NWS Climate Prediction Center
    @NWSCPC
    Aug 13
    El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
    A bar chart showing the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table at the internet address below presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/
  • user avatar
    NWS Climate Prediction Center
    @NWSCPC
    Aug 10
    Key Message for Prolonged Southern U.S. Heat Wave and Rapid Onset Drought
     Key Message of extreme heat for much of the South-Central and Southeastern U.S. released August 10, 2026, for August 18-24.  a) The CPC Week-2 temperature outlook depicts large probabilities (greater than 70 percent chance) of above normal temperatures across the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Aug 18 to 24. b) The risk of hazardous temperatures depicts a high risk (60 to 80 percent chance) of extreme heat across parts of the Central and Southern Great Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Moderate (40 to60 percent chance) and slight (20 to 40 percent chance) risks of extreme heat for a broader area of the south-central and southeastern U.S. and are valid from Aug 18 to 22 and Aug 18 to 24, respectively. A Rapid Onset Drought risk is posted for parts of the Southern Great Plains, Ozarks, and Lower Mississippi Valley.

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