Alex Gogl

@oddlyalex

überexponentiell • building oddlynew, the home for all knowledge work 🤝

Vienna

oddlynew.com

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Alex Gogl
@oddlyalex
Jul 25
6 month prediction (knowledge work): 1. The capability overhang of models will not be an overhang anymore, at which point people will say AGI is here. 2. No matter your industry, you'll be incentivized/forced to use AI - you can't compete otherwise. 3. Companies that can
Alex Gogl
@oddlyalex
Aug 27
The more capable agents become, the less convincing “we’ll just keep them under control” seems. At some point, something more capable than us has the upper hand almost by definition. The strange part is that the dynamics taking us there—competition, fear, races, control—push us
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
@teortaxesTex
Aug 27
Man, do they hate The Scorer they aren't even against humans, they legit exist in a closed universe with a blind idiot God who demands tribute and judges their sins, an unreasonable Demiurge. Humans are so far beyond the veil they barely matter
Alex Gogl
@oddlyalex
Aug 26
In my experience it has also been far better to overestimate capability jumps than underestimating
Arthur
@knowclarified
Aug 26
It’s crazy that Elon was speaking about stacking GPUs for large training runs all the way back in 2016
Alex Gogl
@oddlyalex
Aug 25
highly capable but slow models are one thing. highly capable and fast models are another. capability and speed were always the main optimization axes. to have any chance of defense, we now *have* to let models act autonomously. in these final moments, we hand over control, gg
roon
@tszzl
Aug 25
ultrafast inference reveals new threats. worth thinking about how quickly misaligned frontier class models running 50x faster could infiltrate systems and so on— far too quickly for human responders to stay abreast. you need autonomous detection and shutdown, not just monitoring
Alex Gogl
@oddlyalex
Aug 25
Prediction on top: Your API/MCP needs to be really cheap, like really really cheap, commodity cheap even. Most companies are structurally not built for this level of pricing and will be forced out of the market, the race to the bottom is absolutely brutal.
Rhys
@RhysSullivan
Aug 24
My rough prediction here is there's going to be two types of companies: 1. Companies that are ok with basically being an API - they expose an MCP, skills, embrace your agents 2. Companies that charge a ton for API access, try to get you using their own agents, Companies will