Forecasting Research Institute

@Research_FRI

We advance the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high stakes issues. Co-founded by chief scientist Philip Tetlock.

forecastingresearch.org

Joined May 2023

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Forecasting Research Institute
@Research_FRI
Aug 27
Will the AI boom continue, or is the industry headed toward a bust? In the latest wave of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked AI experts and superforecasters to forecast the following: • The value of semiconductor and software stock indices • Data center
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Forecasting Research Institute
@Research_FRI
Aug 12
In a new study, we asked experts and superforecasters to forecast the effectiveness of @AnthropicAI's AI Safety Level 3 (ASL-3) safeguards at mitigating biosecurity risks from general-purpose AI (GPAI) models. To investigate expert and superforecaster views on the effectiveness
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Forecasting Research Institute
@Research_FRI
Jul 28
Experts expect rapid AI progress to reduce global deaths from non-eradicable diseases and increase U.S. life spans, but to have little impact on overall life satisfaction. In the latest wave of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked forecasters to consider the
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Forecasting Research Institute
@Research_FRI
Jul 23
We just released a new pilot study with @GovAIOrg: Forecasting AI Cyber Risks and Capabilities. We asked a small number of cybersecurity experts and superforecasters to forecast the impact of AI on cyber risks from worm attacks and cyberattacks on the U.S. electrical grid. Key
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Forecasting Research Institute
@Research_FRI
Jul 16
In his recent blog post, @slatestarcodex wrote that "the AI superforecasters are here." We run ForecastBench—a leading AI forecasting benchmark and the only one to compare AI forecasters to human superforecasters. So, how close are current AI systems to superforecasters? For
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