Let's separate where this is credible from where it's science fiction.
1) Will agents go after compute and coordinate in novel ways on their own? Likely. It's a currency and resource they're already familiar with. And we've benchmaxxed them to collaborate towards shared goals.
GPT-6 Astra, trained on ~100K+ NVIDIA Grace Blackwell NVLink72. From ChatGPT to o1 to Astra in 4 years.
AGI has arrived. Congratulations @OpenAI team.
400K GPUs coming online next.
As Newport points out, harping on doom for the species changes the subject from immediate and obvious threats from AI, such as enabling bioterrorism, undermining truth-seeking institutions, and breaching cybersecurity.
Don’t be the “generally” in “generally available,” least of all if there’s a chance the labs show up in your industry.
Open weights were never just about cost cutting.
Astra was probably our biggest competitive advantage while it wasn’t generally available.
Since we’ve had it our productivity jumped so much that we shifted some of our plans 6 months ahead and will ship them at DevDay instead of mid next year.
Doom has the rhetorical upper hand:
nonzero probability × infinite stakes = unacceptable risk.
Everyone else is stuck proving the probability is zero, while grappling with a branching reality in which every path carries its own trade-offs and side effects.
