Prediction Bubbles 🫧

@predictionbubbl

Polymarket and Kalshi on one board. Size is volume, color is probability. No account, nothing to install.

Pinned
Prediction Bubbles 🫧
@predictionbubbl
Aug 13
The biggest circle on our board is the least likely thing on it. $65M on Jesus returning before 2027: 1.9% $1.8M on Becerra winning California: 92.3% Size is the money. Color is the chance. Not the same thing. predictionbubbles.net #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket
Prediction Bubbles 🫧
@predictionbubbl
19h
Our board is mostly uncertainty. This is the other end. More tech layoffs than in 2025: 94.8% Xi visits the US before 2027: 94.8% Spider-Man tops the 2026 box office: 93.5% $32.9M says these are settled. Which would you fade? predictionbubbles.net #SpiderManBrandNewDay
Prediction Bubbles 🫧
@predictionbubbl
Sep 5
The September Fed decision is a coin flip on our board, 11 days out. Hike 25 bps: 50.5% No change: 48.5% Cut 25 bps: 0.4% @Polymarket and @Kalshi word it differently and land within two points. The cut has taken $29.3M over the market's life. predictionbubbles.net #FOMC
Prediction Bubbles 🫧
@predictionbubbl
Sep 3
Bitcoin moved today and the whole ladder repriced with it. Every rung up. $85,000 by year end: 80%, up 18.5 $90,000: 59.5%, up 16 $95,000: 43.5%, up 15.5 $100,000: 30.5%, up 9 Three weeks ago $100k was at 8.5%. predictionbubbles.net #Bitcoin $BTC
Prediction Bubbles 🫧
@predictionbubbl
Aug 14
$65M is riding on whether Jesus Christ returns before 2027. The market says 1.9%. That is more money than any Senate race on our board. predictionbubbles.net #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket
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