Vegas says Uroš Medić is an 80% lock in his hometown main event.
Our model? Only 70% — and Elo alone actually leans Daniel Rodriguez.
Why the model still likes Medić: 60% striking accuracy (WW avg 46%) and he absorbs just 3.42 sig strikes/min. Rodriguez eats 5.40 — well above
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- The ELO lines are crossing in the co-main. Jan Błachowicz — former champ, #4 at 205, but Elo sliding: 1773 → 1748. Navajo Stirling — 10-0, and Elo ROCKETING: 1548 → 1734. That's +186 in under three years. One trajectory is climbing, one is fading. The model gives the unbeaten
- The biggest model-vs-Vegas split on the entire card. Market: Aleksandar Rakić -360 (~78% to win). Combat Edge model: Marcin Tybura 60%. Even Elo alone leans Tybura (56%). The model sees the grappler — 1.30 takedowns/min vs Rakić's 0.64 — dragging this into deep water. Is the
- Closest fight on the Belgrade card? Duško Todorović (Elo 1621) vs Robert Valentin (1592) — a 29-point gap, both Solid tier, both middleweights swinging for a finish. Model splits it almost down the middle: Valentin 53%, Todorović 47%. Vegas agrees it's tight (-155 / +130).
- Vegas has Vlasto Čepo a -355 favorite (~78%). Our model is more cautious: 66%. The Elo trends back the model's read — Čepo climbing (1636 → 1658), Gilbert Urbina falling (1619 → 1573). Still a clear favorite, just not the lock the line makes him. Is Urbina (+280) a live dog?

