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Stephen Miran
@SteveMiran
Citizen of the United States of America 🇺🇸
New York
Joined March 2018
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  • user avatar
    Stephen Miran
    @SteveMiran
    Aug 7
    Core CPI next week is expected to be 2.5%. At historic norms, PCE would be ~2.1%. The inverted relationship is largely measurement error (PM services, software). The jobs data show what I feared: we should not ask people to lose their jobs to offset inflation measurement error.
  • user avatar
    Stephen Miran
    @SteveMiran
    Jul 29
    A hypothesis: the increase in real interest rates has nothing to do with fiscal policy, inflation or monetary policy and everything to do with the decline in free cash flow in the tech sector and the accompanying swing in national savings. If so, policy implications are nuanced.
  • user avatar
    Stephen Miran
    @SteveMiran
    Jul 29
    There are two issues: 1. Somethings are just outside almost all econ models like defense and natsec, and people give policy prescriptions based on models without these 2. Even within econ, most models require a nonexplosive net foreign asset position, or at minimum one that
    user avatar
    Joe Weisenthal
    @TheStalwart
    Jul 28
    Is it fair to say that a fair amount of the political, security, media, business, and academic establishment have basically come around to Peter Navarro (a guy who was dismissed as a complete crank 10 years ago) Thought?