ENH: Adaptive Monte Carlo via Convergence Criteria#922

Malmahrouqi3 · 2026-01-06T01:40:34Z

Pull request type

Code changes (bugfix, features)
Code maintenance (refactoring, formatting, tests)
ReadMe, Docs and GitHub updates

Checklist

Tests for the changes have been added (if needed)
Docs have been reviewed and added / updated
Lint (black rocketpy/ tests/) has passed locally
All tests (pytest tests -m slow --runslow) have passed locally
CHANGELOG.md has been updated (if relevant)

Current behavior

#892 where users have to specify a number of simulations for Monte Carlo simulations, which may compel them to set the number as high as possible, exhausting tons of compute inefficiently and needlessly.

New behavior

With the new feature, users can select a specific attribute such that if it meets their desired tolerance midway through, then the rest of sims will instantaneously stop since the acquired flight sims are reasonably sufficient to satisfy the Confidence Interval Width.

test_dispersion.simulate_convergence(
        target_attribute="apogee_time",
        target_confidence=0.95,
        tolerance=0.5,  # in seconds
        max_simulations=1000,
        batch_size=50
    )

Also, here is a quick display of outcomes with Attribute: Apogee (±30 m) & Apogee Time (±0.5 s). Batch size: 50 & 200.

Breaking change

No

Additional information

I attempted to create unit tests, but I was not successful in that since I could not rely merely on the given input lists. Therefore, I opted for an integration test, where it actually passed locally.

Gui-FernandesBR

The implementation is really clean. I like what I see here!!

Copilot

Pull request overview

This PR introduces adaptive Monte Carlo simulation functionality that allows simulations to terminate early when a confidence interval criterion is met. Instead of requiring users to specify a fixed number of simulations upfront, the new simulate_convergence() method runs simulations in batches and stops when the confidence interval width for a target attribute falls within a specified tolerance.

Key Changes:

Added simulate_convergence() method to MonteCarlo class that runs simulations in batches until convergence or a maximum limit
Added integration test for the new convergence simulation method
Added example usage in the Monte Carlo notebook documentation

Reviewed changes

Copilot reviewed 4 out of 4 changed files in this pull request and generated 15 comments.

File	Description
`rocketpy/simulation/monte_carlo.py`	Implements the new `simulate_convergence()` method that runs batched simulations until confidence interval meets tolerance
`tests/integration/simulation/test_monte_carlo.py`	Adds integration test to verify the convergence simulation behavior
`docs/notebooks/monte_carlo_analysis/monte_carlo_class_usage.ipynb`	Adds example demonstrating usage of the new convergence-based simulation method
`CHANGELOG.md`	Documents the new adaptive Monte Carlo feature

codecov · 2026-01-06T14:19:38Z

Codecov Report

❌ Patch coverage is 8.33333% with 11 lines in your changes missing coverage. Please review.
✅ Project coverage is 81.05%. Comparing base (9cf3dd4) to head (87d8652).
⚠️ Report is 49 commits behind head on develop.

Files with missing lines	Patch %	Lines
rocketpy/simulation/monte_carlo.py	8.33%	11 Missing ⚠️

Additional details and impacted files

@@             Coverage Diff             @@
##           develop     #922      +/-   ##
===========================================
+ Coverage    80.27%   81.05%   +0.78%     
===========================================
  Files          104      107       +3     
  Lines        12769    13905    +1136     
===========================================
+ Hits         10250    11271    +1021     
- Misses        2519     2634     +115

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Gui-FernandesBR · 2026-01-06T14:21:42Z

@Malmahrouqi3 please address all Copilot`s comments and fix tests/linters on CI so we can review this PR.

Once again I found the implementation clean and nice. I think this is way to go.

MateusStano · 2026-03-20T17:54:37Z

@Malmahrouqi3 this looks great! Plan on addressing the comments any time soon?

Malmahrouqi3 · 2026-03-20T17:56:54Z

@MateusStano been caught up with school, but I am planning to do so next week!

Gui-FernandesBR · 2026-03-20T18:02:41Z

@MateusStano been caught up with school, but I am planning to do so next week!

Great to hear from you! I will convert the PR to draft. Feel free to open it to reviwers again whenever you finish all the comments.

Copilot

Pull request overview

Copilot reviewed 4 out of 4 changed files in this pull request and generated 5 comments.

Gui-FernandesBR

Impressive work!!

* ENH: added a new function (simulate_convergence) * DOC: added a cell to show simulate_convergence function usage * TST: integration test for simulate_convergence * DOC: updated changelog for this PR * ENH: ran black to lint intg test file * new fixes thx to copilot comments * linted rocketpy/simulation/monte_carlo.py --------- Co-authored-by: Malmahrouqi3 <mohdsaid497566@gmail.com>

* BUG: Fix hard-coded radius value for parachute added mass calculation (#889) * Fix hard-coded radius value for parachute added mass calculation Calculate radius from cd_s using a typical hemispherical parachute drag coefficient (1.4) when radius is not explicitly provided. This fixes drift distance calculations for smaller parachutes like drogues. Formula: R = sqrt(cd_s / (Cd * π)) Closes #860 Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Address code review: improve docstrings and add explicit None defaults Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Add CHANGELOG entry for PR #889 Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Update rocket.add_parachute to use radius=None for consistency Changed the default radius from 1.5 to None in the add_parachute method to match the Parachute class behavior. This ensures consistent automatic radius calculation from cd_s across both APIs. Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Refactor Parachute class to remove hard-coded radius value and introduce drag_coefficient parameter for radius estimation Fix hard-coded radius value for parachute added mass calculation Calculate radius from cd_s using a typical hemispherical parachute drag coefficient (1.4) when radius is not explicitly provided. This fixes drift distance calculations for smaller parachutes like drogues. Formula: R = sqrt(cd_s / (Cd * π)) Closes #860 Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Add CHANGELOG entry for PR #889 Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Refactor Parachute class to remove hard-coded radius value and introduce drag_coefficient parameter for radius estimation MNT: Extract noise initialization to fix pylint too-many-statements in Parachute.__init__ Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * Refactor environment method access in controller test for clarity * fix pylint * fix comments * avoid breaking change with drag_coefficient * reafactors Parachute.__init__ method * fix tests --------- Co-authored-by: copilot-swe-agent[bot] <198982749+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <guilherme_fernandes@usp.br> * ENH: get changes from BUG: All NOAA NOMADS Dependent Atmosphere Models Broken Fixes #933 * ENH: Add guidelines for simulation safety, Sphinx documentation, and pytest standards (GitHub Copilot) (#937) * REL: bump version to 1.12 * ENH: Add explicit timeouts to ThrustCurve API requests and update changelog (#940) * Initial plan * ENH: Add explicit timeouts to ThrustCurve API requests Co-authored-by: MateusStano <69485049+MateusStano@users.noreply.github.com> * DOC: Add timeout fix PR to changelog Co-authored-by: MateusStano <69485049+MateusStano@users.noreply.github.com> --------- Co-authored-by: copilot-swe-agent[bot] <198982749+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: MateusStano <69485049+MateusStano@users.noreply.github.com> * ENH: Restore power_off/on_drag as Function objects; add _input attributes for raw user input and update changelog (#941) * Initial plan * ENH: Restore power_off/on_drag as Function, add _input attributes for raw user input Co-authored-by: MateusStano <69485049+MateusStano@users.noreply.github.com> * DOC: Add PR #941 compatibility fix to changelog Co-authored-by: MateusStano <69485049+MateusStano@users.noreply.github.com> * Update rocketpy/rocket/rocket.py Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * MNT: ruff pylint --------- Co-authored-by: copilot-swe-agent[bot] <198982749+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: MateusStano <69485049+MateusStano@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: MateusStano <mateusstano@usp.br> * MNT: Remove unused imports and deprecated functions from mathutils/function.py * BUG: Readd SourceType enumeration for function source types and clean up imports * BUG: Fix incorrect Jacobian in `only_radial_burn` branch of `SolidMotor.evaluate_geometry` (#944) * Initial plan * BUG: Fix incorrect Jacobian in only_radial_burn branch of evaluate_geometry Co-authored-by: MateusStano <69485049+MateusStano@users.noreply.github.com> --------- Co-authored-by: copilot-swe-agent[bot] <198982749+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: MateusStano <69485049+MateusStano@users.noreply.github.com> * ENH: move weathercocking_coeff to PointMassRockt * MNT: ruff * MNT: fix cyclic import * BUG: Add wraparound logic for wind direction in environment plots (#939) * chore: added personal toolkit files * update branch name in workflow * chore: update toolkit files * Fix: add wraparound logic for wind direction and related tests * style: fix ruff formatting * Remove unused import Co-authored-by: Copilot Autofix powered by AI <175728472+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> * refactor: move repetitive logic into helper method * fix: update test logic in test_environment * add changelog entry --------- Co-authored-by: Copilot Autofix powered by AI <175728472+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * MNT: add numpy import to test_environment.py * MNT: rename constant for wraparound threshold in _break_direction_wraparound method * ENH: Adaptive Monte Carlo via Convergence Criteria (#922) * ENH: added a new function (simulate_convergence) * DOC: added a cell to show simulate_convergence function usage * TST: integration test for simulate_convergence * DOC: updated changelog for this PR * ENH: ran black to lint intg test file * new fixes thx to copilot comments * linted rocketpy/simulation/monte_carlo.py --------- Co-authored-by: Malmahrouqi3 <mohdsaid497566@gmail.com> * DOC: add latitude range in docs Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * MNT: remove unnecessary pylint warning Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * MNT: remove unnecessary pylint warning Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * DOC: correctly link to WeatherModelMapping Co-authored-by: Copilot <175728472+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> * DOCS: checked todo Co-authored-by: Copilot <175728472+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> * ENH: address copilot comments * TST: improve tests * ENH: get changes from BUG: All NOAA NOMADS Dependent Atmosphere Models Broken Fixes #933 * BUG: Fix hard-coded radius value for parachute added mass calculation (#889) * Fix hard-coded radius value for parachute added mass calculation Calculate radius from cd_s using a typical hemispherical parachute drag coefficient (1.4) when radius is not explicitly provided. This fixes drift distance calculations for smaller parachutes like drogues. Formula: R = sqrt(cd_s / (Cd * π)) Closes #860 Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Address code review: improve docstrings and add explicit None defaults Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Add CHANGELOG entry for PR #889 Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Update rocket.add_parachute to use radius=None for consistency Changed the default radius from 1.5 to None in the add_parachute method to match the Parachute class behavior. This ensures consistent automatic radius calculation from cd_s across both APIs. Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Refactor Parachute class to remove hard-coded radius value and introduce drag_coefficient parameter for radius estimation Fix hard-coded radius value for parachute added mass calculation Calculate radius from cd_s using a typical hemispherical parachute drag coefficient (1.4) when radius is not explicitly provided. This fixes drift distance calculations for smaller parachutes like drogues. Formula: R = sqrt(cd_s / (Cd * π)) Closes #860 Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Add CHANGELOG entry for PR #889 Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Refactor Parachute class to remove hard-coded radius value and introduce drag_coefficient parameter for radius estimation MNT: Extract noise initialization to fix pylint too-many-statements in Parachute.__init__ Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * Refactor environment method access in controller test for clarity * fix pylint * fix comments * avoid breaking change with drag_coefficient * reafactors Parachute.__init__ method * fix tests --------- Co-authored-by: copilot-swe-agent[bot] <198982749+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <guilherme_fernandes@usp.br> * ENH: Add guidelines for simulation safety, Sphinx documentation, and pytest standards (GitHub Copilot) (#937) * REL: bump version to 1.12 * BUG: Add wraparound logic for wind direction in environment plots (#939) * chore: added personal toolkit files * update branch name in workflow * chore: update toolkit files * Fix: add wraparound logic for wind direction and related tests * style: fix ruff formatting * Remove unused import Co-authored-by: Copilot Autofix powered by AI <175728472+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> * refactor: move repetitive logic into helper method * fix: update test logic in test_environment * add changelog entry --------- Co-authored-by: Copilot Autofix powered by AI <175728472+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * MNT: add numpy import to test_environment.py * MNT: rename constant for wraparound threshold in _break_direction_wraparound method * DOC: add latitude range in docs Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * MNT: remove unnecessary pylint warning Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * MNT: remove unnecessary pylint warning Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> * ENH: address copilot comments * TST: improve tests * DOC: correctly link to WeatherModelMapping Co-authored-by: Copilot <175728472+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> * DOCS: checked todo Co-authored-by: Copilot <175728472+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> * ENH: Adaptive Monte Carlo via Convergence Criteria (#922) * ENH: added a new function (simulate_convergence) * DOC: added a cell to show simulate_convergence function usage * TST: integration test for simulate_convergence * DOC: updated changelog for this PR * ENH: ran black to lint intg test file * new fixes thx to copilot comments * linted rocketpy/simulation/monte_carlo.py --------- Co-authored-by: Malmahrouqi3 <mohdsaid497566@gmail.com> * DEV: remove unwanted changes from develop * DEV: Update for hotfix * TST: add tests * MNT: remove changes from develop again * MNT: Refactor longitude and latitude index functions * MNT: ruff --------- Co-authored-by: Copilot <198982749+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <63590233+Gui-FernandesBR@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Gui-FernandesBR <guilherme_fernandes@usp.br> Co-authored-by: Khushal Kottaru <khushal.kottaru@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: Copilot Autofix powered by AI <175728472+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Mohammed S. Al-Mahrouqi <malmahrouqi3@gatech.edu> Co-authored-by: Malmahrouqi3 <mohdsaid497566@gmail.com>

Malmahrouqi3 added 3 commits January 5, 2026 19:11

ENH: added a new function (simulate_convergence)

3f483dc

DOC: added a cell to show simulate_convergence function usage

6c79f80

TST: integration test for simulate_convergence

424aeab

Malmahrouqi3 changed the base branch from master to develop January 6, 2026 01:41

Malmahrouqi3 added 2 commits January 5, 2026 20:44

DOC: updated changelog for this PR

f6fbd1d

ENH: ran black to lint intg test file

f6166b8

Malmahrouqi3 marked this pull request as ready for review January 6, 2026 01:52

Malmahrouqi3 requested a review from a team as a code owner January 6, 2026 01:52

Gui-FernandesBR reviewed Jan 6, 2026

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Gui-FernandesBR requested a review from Copilot January 6, 2026 14:10

Gui-FernandesBR linked an issue Jan 6, 2026 that may be closed by this pull request

ENH: Implement Adaptive Simulation based on Convergence Criteria #892

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Copilot started reviewing on behalf of Gui-FernandesBR January 6, 2026 14:10 View session

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Merge branch 'develop' into enh/adaptive-monte-carlo-convergence

4d14ce1

Gui-FernandesBR marked this pull request as draft March 20, 2026 18:02

Malmahrouqi3 and others added 3 commits March 28, 2026 14:42

Merge branch 'develop' into enh/adaptive-monte-carlo-convergence

2cd5314

new fixes thx to copilot comments

ad650a4

linted rocketpy/simulation/monte_carlo.py

87d8652

Malmahrouqi3 requested a review from Copilot March 29, 2026 00:19

Copilot started reviewing on behalf of Malmahrouqi3 March 29, 2026 00:20 View session

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Comment thread rocketpy/simulation/monte_carlo.py

Comment thread tests/integration/simulation/test_monte_carlo.py

Comment thread CHANGELOG.md

Comment thread docs/notebooks/monte_carlo_analysis/monte_carlo_class_usage.ipynb

Comment thread rocketpy/simulation/monte_carlo.py

Malmahrouqi3 marked this pull request as ready for review March 29, 2026 00:53

Gui-FernandesBR approved these changes Mar 29, 2026

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Gui-FernandesBR merged commit e0173e2 into RocketPy-Team:develop Mar 29, 2026
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