Still some mystery....

...in the raid to kill Usama bin Laden.   This was illustrated by an expansive NBC News story about Air Force Special Operations Weathermen:

“I guarantee you there were guys out there,” said one senior official, who requested anonymity because he isn’t authorized to discuss the bin Laden mission. Special Operations Command declined to comment directly, as did Sawtelle, the officer then in charge of the SOWTs at Hurlburt Field.

But the need for data was obvious. Pakistan’s ground weather stations are spotty and far-flung, producing forecasts too vague for military use. To compensate, at least one environmental observer was on the flight path into Pakistan, while a second dug into the mountains surrounding Abbottabad, providing environmental “overwatch” on the compound, according to military sources.

It’s unclear how they landed in those positions. SOWTs are trained to jump from tens of thousands of feet, glide through the night and hit an X anywhere on the map. But they’re equally adept at flying commercial with an Osprey backpack, North Face boots and a cover story.

Now, yes, that's interesting to say the least, assuming this story isn't complete horse manure.  If they were indeed in there then as the story indicates they were either dropped off by lead aircraft (never mentioned) or hiked into position after some kind of clandestine entry.  Assuming truth was it necessary to reveal the role of this unit to the public?  

The Climate is Changing, the Climate is Changing!

Here's the President (notice the green background), bizarrely telling a meteorologist that he wants to make sure his grandchildren get to enjoy a 'beautiful day', as if beautiful days will be wiped out by climate change:



The Climatologist-in-chief also infers that somehow climate change, which has been around since before the Creator created mankind and our unalienable rights, has only just now begun to happen. 

Presumably he means man-made climate change, but he didn't specifically blame mankind for ALL of it, probably preferring to let the moronic 'climate change' buzz phrase play to the many rubes who'll buy the premise that the climate has never changed as it has lately, totally proven by 120 years of observed data and recent extreme weather events which are the worst ever (at least over 120 years), but themselves not individually traceable to climate change, yet all caused by climate change.

Not surprisingly, none of the eight meteorologists asked him how many degrees C he believes we can cool the Earth by putting in more massive eyesores and solar panels across America alone, or how soon that might happen; or what might happen to the Islamist countries or places like Venezuela and Russia when their oil is no longer a hot commodity. Most just nodded their heads and thanked him for the privilege of being a mouthpiece.  Of course that's probably why they were picked.

Meanwhile, this guy wasn't invited to the ceremonies...



But that's probably because...

We don't have time for a meeting of the flat-Earth society," Obama said. "Sticking your head in the sand might make you feel safer, but it's not going to protect you from the coming storm." Earlier in his remarks,

Obama said the "overwhelming judgement of science, of chemistry, of physics, and millions of measurements" put "to rest" questions about pollution affecting the environment. "The planet is warming. Human activity is contributing to it," Obama said.

Notice via bold the Prez very carefully said "contributing to it" not "causing it".   He knows that the precise amount of human contribution is still unsettled science (and a large part of the problem in selling it to the masses), so even the climatologist-in-chief wanted some wiggle room on that--and who can blame him?  Lawyers are good at saying things without really saying them. 

The fact is, scientific knowledge is always advancing.  Theories are always being refined with new knowledge, such whether coffee or eggs are healthy or not.  But such an admission in the climate debate is inconvenient.  We only have 500 days left to act or LAX goes underwater and other horrible things.  We must act, act, act, act now, or else!!!  

In the old days an intrepid journalist might have looked at such a thing and asked, "why all the politics of fear"?  What is the real goal here?   But in our new world that debate is also over. Such a line of questioning is indicative of flat earth thinking and likely racist, and belongs only on disgraced hack outlets like Faux News.  

Aviation Update

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is lost and presumed down somewhere along it's route from Malaysia to China.  The aircraft was last reported by flight trackers to be flying at a cruise altitude of 35,000 feet after leaving Kuala Lumpur. The incidences of aircraft disappearing in cruise flight are few and far between, so there is obviously concern--not only about where it is, but how it disappeared. 

Reports say a mayday was not issued, which could suggest a catastrophic failure, however the pilots always have to fly the plane first so it doesn't always indicate a sudden loss.  The last large airliner lost at cruise was Air France 447, over the open Atlantic in 2009, but it encountered a large thunderstorm complex. Did the Malaysia aircraft encounter any weather?

It appears the answer is no.  Here's a satellite page from the CIMMS satellite unit in Wisconsin that shows Southeast Asia.  By the time the aircraft would have transited the area (approximately 1840Z March 7) there was no precipitation that would have affected an aircraft at 35,000 feet.  Turbulence is another matter, but it's harder to spot on satellites.  However, modern passenger aircraft are rarely taken down by severe turbulence.  Had they encountered something bad it's likely they could have made contact before disappearing, unless the shear was so bad it ripped off a wing or tail surface or the crew made some kind of speed correction that resulted in a stall.  But that's beyond my pay grade.

In any developing story there is conflicting information, which has been noted already in this one.  First reports said the aircraft was over Vietnam and had possibly flown out over the South China Sea.  Indeed, the Chinese were searching there.  Later reports said the aircraft was over the Gulf of Thailand--reports this morning say an oil slick has been spotted south of the Vietnam coast.  The only problem with that seems to be time--if the early reports were true.

Those early reports from Malaysia Airlines said the aircraft disappeared off radar about 2:40am, or 1840Z, which would be 2 hours into the flight:

Flight MH370 lost contact with air traffic controllers at 2:40am local time (5:40am AEDT) on Saturday, just over two hours into what should have been a six-hour journey.

Airline tracking site Flight Aware showed the aircraft off Kuala Lumpur at approximately 1640Z, 12:40am Malaysian time or 11:40am EST.  If that's true the aircraft should have made it further north than the Gulf of Thailand based on flight histories.

Now reports this morning are backing up that time up to about 1:30am.  When looking at Flight Aware tracking, the tracking stops shortly after leaving Kuala Lumpur.  Here's a comparison graphic with yesterday's flight on top of the same flight run 2 days ago..

Flight Aware uses ADS-B info to plot these tracks.  Their updating isn't constant and their coverage map shows many gaps in this area, so the precise location is far from certain. Data from another popular tracker, Flightradar24, also suggests a disappearance south of Vietnam.  However, looking at the previous run of MH370 it was over the South China Sea by 2:30 to 3:00am local time.  Whether all of this is just standard news media time zone confusion or something else is unclear, but the fact we are dealing with two communist governments here should probably be noted. Case in point:

The plane "lost all contact and radar signal one minute before it entered Vietnam's air traffic control," Lt. Gen. Vo Van Tuan, deputy chief of staff of the Vietnamese army, said in a statement.

How convenient.

If you're thinking of China and that new ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) and some military hanky-panky, that ADIZ was established in the East China Sea.  It doesn't appear the aircraft got that far north and off-course to the east.   The Chinese don't have an expanded ADIZ in the South China Sea yet--but they want one.  There are a lot of details we don't know at the moment.

As to terrorism, officials have smartly not ruled it out yet (as they normally do within hours with most other crashes/events).  China just suffered a big attack and they are no more adored by Islamist radicals than America. Going back into history, Ramzi Yousef planted a micro-seat bomb on Philippine Airlines flight 434 in 1994.  He planted it under a seat on the first leg to Cebu; got off, then the timer-bomb exploded on the leg to Tokyo. Had it been successful PAL 434 would have also disappeared at sea but the damage didn't cripple the flight and the pilot made a heroic emergency landing in Okinawa.   Here's a brief summary of how Yousef, who was already an international fugitive wanted for the 1993 World Trade Center bombing at the time, managed to get on an airplane to plant the bomb:

Authorities later discovered that a passenger on the aircraft's preceding leg was Ramzi Yousef.[3][4] He was later convicted of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing.[4] Yousef boarded the flight under the fake Italian name "Armaldo Forlani",[2] an incorrect spelling of the name of the Italian legislator[5] Arnaldo Forlani.

In what may just be a weird coincidence, the Italian passenger on the manifest of MH370 has contacted authorities to confirm he wasn't on it; that his passport had been stolen months ago in Malaysia.  Now Daily Mail is saying there was another phony passport.  That's a classic terrorist tactic.

If it was terrorism it's likely a group would want to take credit, unless they are waiting until confirmation. Even without confirmation it's likely that worldwide aviation authorities are maintaining a heightened sense of awareness at the moment.

MORE  3/8/14

Words can do this no justice. 

Meanwhile, Maguire cautions on making a leap to terrorism based on the use of stolen passports without a baseline of how often this occurs.  Had he been reading his own comments more closely he might have noticed the resident pilot commenter who flies cargo said the Chinese scrutinize his passport thoroughly every time he enters their country, even if he's doing a turnaround hop at the airport without leaving the aircraft.  Of course that doesn't account for people the Chinese might want to ignore, for whatever reasons.

And those whatever reasons must include the international drug/criminal trade, which just lost a huge kingpin in Mexico when the Sinaloa Cartel boss was hauled in.  Was there a disruption in the force strong enough to cause something like this?   Assuming this crash was not mechanical-related.  Space debris is another possibility, although it has to be considered the farthest outlier, however it was mentioned during the TWA800 investigation.   

MORE  3/9/14

The focus now seems to be on the Gulf of Thailand.  Apparently the 2 versus 1 hour flight time discrepancy has been cleared up by explaining that 2:40am local was when the Vietnam controllers considered the flight missing, but 1:30am was when it disappeared from radar.

The hour delay is maybe a little weird, or maybe not depending on their ATC protocols. If the transponder stopped working and all comms were lost, AND the Vietnamese couldn't see a 'primary target' on their radarscopes (radar data point without the corresponding text information they normally have associated with it) they would likely immediately consider the aircraft either crashed or crippled to the point it had fallen below radar coverage.  The fact there were no radar returns is different than them thinking there was an electrical system failure in the aircraft---the radar should see them anyway.

Vietnamese controllers would have been calling other aircraft in the area to relay instructions or figure out what was happening, or get a visual on a possible crash site.   Wonder if their ATC tapes can be released?  They have to speak English, by the way--it's the international language of commercial aviation.

As to the report that Malaysian officials wanted Thailand to check their west coast along the Andaman Sea, as if the aircraft might have made a big loop to the west after having dropped below radar coverage, well it sounds far-fetched but such depends on the minimum altitude their radars can view.  Surely the Malaysian and/or Thai military have defense radars that would scan pretty low and be able to see traces of a massive Boeing 777.  Also, one would think at least a passenger or two would have tweeted for Facebooked someone knowing things were going wrong after the sudden descent.

ABC News has a fairly decent list of possible causes (of course they left off TWA800 with the spark in the fuel tank), which included a military shoot-down.  That's probably something no government in the region would want to own up to initially, choosing to wait for years as an investigation chugged on.  At this point just random speculation and of course zero comfort to those with loved ones on the flight. 

I-40 Gridlock, no National Media

Cars and trucks on a major east-west interstate in America, stranded for hours and gridlocked for dozens of miles in severe winter conditions, with the National Guard called out-and hardly a mention from our national media?

It's day two of a traffic nightmare along two major interstates in eastern Arkansas. Drivers are stuck on I-55 from West Memphis to the Missouri state line and on I-40 from West Memphis to Forrest City.

It's gotten so bad; the Arkansas National Guard has been called in to help state police but stranded drivers are not being evacuated by the guard.

Here's a photo gallery. There are many horror stories and frayed nerves and blame flying around.  But someone in another city would never know. 

Let's face it, the storm that hit eastern Arkansas was brutal, but it hit eastern Arkansas, estimated population 159.  The same conditions were forecast to hit the Memphis metro area (and it's nearly one million inhabitants) and somehow it missed them--again (third time this winter).  Had the "warm air" moved a little further east (warm, as in over two inches of rain fell with air temperatures between 33-34 degrees) the gridlock would have been well underway in the big city right now, no doubt garnering some national interest.

How bad was it?   Go here for 3 maps from the National Weather Service showing the ice/sleet/snow accumulations from the Sunday-Monday storm.  The obvious focus was rural Arkansas and Tennessee.  They got hammered.  And it's not just an Arkansas thang, any place in America hit with half inch of ice, followed by several inches of sleet then snow would have trouble. 
 
Not saying this is the biggest story in the nation.  All networks are rightfully focusing on Ukraine.  But they aren't even including this in their secondary stories despite this lasting over 36 hours now. The ice and snow is really less a story than what caused the massive gridlock on these major transportation arteries and whether it could have been prevented and when it's going to clear.  Some people had to spend a night in their car last night in the wilderness.  

But instead of asking the questions, CNN is talking about a child being suspended for a finger gun.  ABC is discussing sex with Sean Lowe, NBC is talking about ice on highway 150--in North Carolina (not a major east-west interstate), Fox on a kid suing his parents and CBS is reporting on a Michigan ban about being 'willfully annoying" or something.  And the Big Boy, Drudge, has a bunch of links up on the weather, except this one.  It's not the AP--they are covering the story on the wires.  It's not political bias.  The biggies simply don't think a huge weather-related quagmire on a major interstate is important, evidently because it's in westbumfark. 

Although rumor has it that MSNBC inquired as to where Christie was when the delays began.      

Weather or Not

Drudge is going crazy with the weather stories today, taking a cue from the mainstreamers, who are all talking about "Hercules".   By the way, who started naming winter storms and what's the criteria for getting a name anyway?

It's winter and it's cold outside today in Memphis.  No newsflash.  But the local news is highlighting an even colder "Arctic Blast" heading in over the weekend, which could be trouble.  Presuming this name thing works alphabetically as with hurricanes, what will they name this one?  How about "Imhotep".  Or would that be offensive to the Egyptians?  

Whatever the case it could be a doozy, not so much for snow but temperatures; Memphis is expected to remain in the teens on Monday according to the NWS..

We barely drop down into the teens during a normal winter, much less have a high in the teens.  The south isn't built for such temperatures; pipes and people tend to freeze.  So it's prudent for residents to take it seriously. 

Actually, it's been a cold year here overall-- 2013 was probably below average.   None of which signals an end to global warming, or climate change, or Tea Party induced planetary death, or whatever the official liberal name is now.   But it sure would be funny if Al Gore were coming to town next week for a global warming conference, assuming he wasn't on that expedition ship trapped in the summer Antarctic ice.

Arctic Ice Update

The latest on the Polar Bear Front:

About a million more square miles of ocean are covered in ice in 2013 than in 2012, a whopping 60 percent increase -- and a dramatic deviation from predictions of an "ice-free Arctic in 2013," the Daily Mail noted.

One must note that the current 2013 extent is still less than normal, but the point of this post requires a trip on the way-back machine to 2007 and the dire projections from climate scientists about the year 2013:

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.

"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."

Emphasis added to emphasize the fact these scientists not only thought summers would be ice-free by 2013, but probably well BEFORE. Talk about going down in flames. Of course this hyperventilation was picked up and used by none other than Al "millions of degrees" Gore as proof that Bush was killing the planet and that we only had five years to act before doom. Yet here we are. Ready to believe yet?

Uh, CBS (and others), Got Some Science News for You....

Here's a breathless headline on CBS.com this afternoon...

Melting ice forms lake in the North Pole

The obvious implication:  oh noes, Santa and the Elves have drowned thanks to that evil heat Mizer guy!   And global warming, of course.   Chris Hayes on his MSNBC show tonight added some hysteria and the internets are full of liberal joy over the confirmation about their doomsday projections, which signals the coming world socialism solution.    

One problem--it's happened before.  Many times.  And it's been reported on before, many times.

Only a few examples. Now, which party is anti-science again? 


If challenged, and that's a big if, CBS will defend itself by saying they never blamed it on anything.  They merely reported that the meltwater was there and that temperatures had been above normal. That's true.  Nobody will be blaming the Arctic Oscillation and its negative phase, which likely caused the cooler than normal Spring and so far the near-normal summer over parts of middle America.   But that doesn't make a good sound bite.

Sky is Falling Update

One study, two stories: 

The New York Times:

Global Temperatures Highest in 4,000 Years

CNN:

We are seeing temperatures increase at a rate not seen in at least 11,300 years, researchers say.

Nice contrast. Both are referring to the same study.

In another diversion, CNN's story blames the warming on human-kind but doesn't mention the "Medieval Warm Period" as the Times does:

The cooling was interrupted, at least in the Northern Hemisphere, by a fairly brief spike during the Middle Ages, known as the Medieval Warm Period. (It was then that the Vikings settled Greenland, dying out there when the climate cooled again.)

Yet the Times doesn't explain what caused this interruption in the data over 1000 years ago. CNN doesn't mention this interruption at all but warns that the last time it's been as warm as it's projected to be in 2100 was over 130,000 years ago:

The last time Earth has been as warm as it is projected to be by 2100 was before the last Ice Age started -- over 130,000 years ago. That's too long ago to gather reliable data on, he said.

So, if Earth reaches a projected temperature by the year 2100 it will be as warm as it might have been before the last Ice Age, a period so long ago the data is unreliable.  Meaning it's also unclear what caused the Earth to be so warm back then.  Well it surely wasn't Republicans driving SUVs and building factories, that much is known. But this was perhaps the most starting conclusion from the paper:

Scientists say that if natural factors were still governing the climate, the Northern Hemisphere would probably be destined to freeze over again in several thousand years. “We were on this downward slope, presumably going back toward another ice age,” Dr. Marcott said. Instead, scientists believe the enormous increase in greenhouse gases caused by industrialization will almost certainly prevent that.

In other words, anthropogenic global warming has saved the planet? 

Well, there's no question the temperatures have been warming during the last 120 years.  The Times story mentions that the decade from 1900-1909 was among the 95 percent of coldest decades on record in the last 11,000 years (which is strange because they seem to be glossing over the Little Ice Age from a century previous).  The fact it was so anomalously cold also tends to dramatize the warming that occurred through the 1940s and again between 1980 and the 2000s. 

But since human-kind didn't cause this downward slide it's unlikely human-kind can stop our recent upward spike, even with Chavez-like command socialism or giant windmills from sea to shining sea.  What will occur--and make us forget about global warming--is the new technology that will inevitably come along and make carbon-free non-polluting energy cheap and abundant for the masses like fossil-fuels are now.  

Finding Nemo

Blizzardmagedonpocalyse is finally swirling out to sea, leaving a lot of snow and power outages in its wake and unfortunately some loss of life, which the state-issued threats were apparently designed to prevent...

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island ahead of the storm ordered motorists to stay off the streets under threat of imprisonment and fines -- up to a year in jail and $500 in Rhode Island.

And the state handling and media reportage is certainly a part of this story.  In retrospect, were the severe threats about driving necessary or would strongly worded cautions not have accomplished the same thing?  One year in jail for venturing out during a storm, really?  Free citizens should not be subjected to such draconian warnings--they should deduce as much through common sense and not be treated like children.  Besides, the roads were going to be near impossible to traverse anyway.

Regardless, the storm was indeed a monster.  But despite the early hype about it being record-breaking in Boston, the President's Day storm of 2003 (and it's 27.5 inches), and the Blizzard of 78 (and it's 27.1 inches) began the day with their top spots still secure in Beantown weather record books..

But Connecticut saw the most accumulation with up to 38 inches in cities like Milford, while the Massachusetts cities of Worcester and Boston received 27 and 21 inches, respectively, with winds howling up to 75 mph.

The winds did howl, or rather gust to hurricane force in some areas, but not inland at places like Worcester, it was mainly along the shoreline communities, not quite fulfilling the exaggerated predictions. The weather sensor at Boston Logan airport reported a wind gust to 76 mph and another to 98 mph overnight but those are not confirmed--the one to 98 was almost surely an equipment malfunction unless one of the Kennedy clan got control and tweaked the reading.  But it was certainly blizzardy, no doubt.   

All in all a big, bad Nor'easter, bigger than most, but not entirely unusual in the northeast during winter....

Since 1969, accounting for measured snowfalls in communities within the Route 128 belt and not just Boston proper, we've had 10 storms that have eclipsed 20 inches.

More than one per decade, in other words. 

Looking back, the storm was well predicted by the weather people and the media did what they do.  Looking forward, it will be interesting to see whether it becomes a political football in the days, weeks and months ahead. 

Yes Tom, Climate Change Exists

Let's be clear Tom--climate change has been underway since, oh, forever.  The question pertaining to Sandy is whether a recent warming trend since the 18th Century is producing "ever more destructive storms" or was Sandy simply a collision between an unseasonably cold airmass and a hurricane?  

When it comes to hurricanes one prominent NOAA researcher says no, there's no evidence global warming is having an effect yet.  Others agree but are holding out hope!   

Now, one thing everyone knows with certainty is that more people are building homes near the ocean and areas susceptible to flooding.  Tom is absolutely correct about over-development but he seemed to be suggesting some kind of top-down governmental fix (wake up call, plan for the future, etc).  An easier way is to let the market take care of it.  You want a house right on the beach or in a flood zone?  You're gonna pay through the nose for insurance.   If people get the idea the government will be there to back them up if they make risky choices they're more likely to make risky choices.   Just look at the whole sub-prime disaster.   

Frankenstorm

"Frankenstorm"-- what some are already calling the predicted mixture of a cold front with hurricane Sandy, projected to hit the northeast corridor around Halloween. Hmm, wonder if the Weather Channel's tentative name for the first significant winter storm--"Athena", will be used, or will they abandon that and use Frankenstorm or just "Sandy"?  We await their exciting decision.   

Surely if this thing comes to pass its own spinning will pale in comparison to the spinning done about what it means and how it's handled.   One would think the political fallout could only help Obama going into the last week of the campaign (barring some kind of weirdness) as flaks point out over and over how well it was handled by FEMA, et al.  They've been looking for a story to come along and eclipse Benghazi but things have been slow lately.

What about the global warming references?  Oddly, that subject didn't come up in any of the debates.  With James Hansen NASA already predicting that 2012 will be the warmest on record no matter what happens from here out it's a bit of a head-scratcher.

Sunday

A few things not related to politics..

Did you know they are on the verge of officially naming a new cloud?  Stories say it was 'discovered' but these clouds aren't a recent production of mother nature just an oversight in the classifications.  I've seen a few in my time, usually in the transition seasons.  Here's a view of some..

Very strange, almost like some kind of Picasso or Van Gogh painting.

Turning to sports, it's the time of year where everything is in swing: baseball, hockey (sorry), football, basketball and even some leftover golf.   Too bad Chipper Jones had to go out to a shower of trash that would make Philly fans envious.  The infield fly call was technically correct but totally unnecessary at the time and possibly affected the outcome of the game, not just for the Braves but the Cards fielder might have been distracted by the ump's verbal call causing him to peel away.  MLB's attempt to heighten excitement and give the division-winning teams a reward for having a better record seems to have backfired for the traditional Wild Card winning teams, both of whom lost in the one-game playoffs.   It's almost as if they need to be spotted an extra run along with home field, but of course MLB would never go there.   


Finally, nothing related to anything and yes this is a commercial, but it made me laugh out loud..



The part where this straight arrow guy air drums a stick flip is simply hilarious. 

Here comes Isaac

Drudge is now heralding doom for New Orleans with a sensational headline comparing Tropical Storm Isaac to Category 4 Hurricane Katrina.  He's linking to a Forbes story about some weather people who work in futures, ie, reminding everyone that somebody will likely make money off this possible future disaster depending on the outcome. That's our evil free market system at work.

Anyway, it's hard to believe Katrina was seven years ago this month.  Hopefully they've strengthened the flood walls down there lest we have another disaster blamed on Bush.   In reality the Landrieu family will be the ones on the hot seat this time if something happens because nothing rises to the top these days.   They will surely have all the gutsy calls they can handle.   Let's hope none of them fly off the handle, like last time.

Meanwhile, be careful what you say.  After slightly mocking NOAA in an earlier post for sending Isaac to Tampa and the GOP convention they are now sending it to.. Memphis.

I get the message!  So let's hope and pray that it fizzles out....and certainly not just for my sake. 

COMPASSIONATE URINATING CONTEST  8/27/12

Expect we might hear something about this order Obama signed declaring Louisiana is now in a federal state of emergency.   He's on the ball! 

How many will point out that Bush did the same thing? 

Pondering Super Tuesday

Thinking today....who's the candidate closest to Andrew Breitbart as to fighting spirit?  Who pushes back harder on the ridiculous media memes?  Who seems to be the most articulate?  Who appears as fearless?

Then I saw this..



Wow, Breitbart was there.

But wait... more thoughts.   What's the most important issue this cycle?  Is it jobs?  Yeah sorta, but the jobs will eventually come back in time even if the president takes six months off and returns to Bali to work on another book.  People eventually need new cars and washing machines and shoes for the kids and the next Apple thing.

Is it the debt?  Yes, but that's a long term prospect.  We need someone who truly believes it's an issue, but both sides have to work within Congress, even a president Ron Paul.    

Obamacare?  Bingo.  Having the government controlling health coverage and decision-making is a HUGE CHANGE, certainly part of the change Obama promised.  Once DC controls health costs they have an excuse to mandate other things to keep those costs under control.  If they can mandate insurance coverage they can mandate things to lower insurance costs.  We are losing enough freedom as it is.

Meanwhile as the press focuses on birth control pills, condoms and Rush Limbaugh, Obama just essentially compared America's problems to those faced by Ghandi and Mandela in a speech talking about how slow change can be.  Really?  Did he just use a clumsy analogy or does he actually think our problems are akin to those faced by Mandela and Ghandi?  Shouldn't someone ask, because if so we ain't seen nothing yet in the change department.

In other words, the nominee has to be someone who can best win the argument on health care and creeping statism in general.  Can Romney?  This story should do him in once and for all.  Yes, he advocated market-based solutions instead of single payer, but he advocated for government-run insurance.  Now he says he'll repeal it.  Why?  It's basically his idea.  Splitting hairs over federal versus state will be a tough sell.   And Newt has his own baggage on healthcare and kumbayaing with liberals, not nearly as much, but some is likely still rotating around the carousel at Hartsfield.  Who does that leave?

Santorum.  Rick Santorum.  Leader of the free world.  No offense, but I'm having trouble visualizing it.  And Paul?  The vision is one of mass chaos.  Besides, the lefty media hasn't even begun to vet him.  

Anyway, Super Tuesday is coming, tick tock. The decision has not been made.  Considering the options is almost painful.  There's just gotta be someone, someone else.  Can't help but look at pictures like this and wonder...

...whether the GOP really wants to beat Obama...or stop Obamacare.  

Irene in the Rearview

The storm is moving away, fortunately leaving less carnage than predicted, so now it's time for the eggs to be thrown. The major media shied away from tying Irene to global warming but that didn't stop the Daily Beast from posting a piece by environmentalist Bill McKibben on Thursday night doing just that; some of his broadsides are worth discussing:

As she roars up the Eastern Seaboard, everyone is doing what they should—boarding windows, preparing rescue plans, stocking up on batteries. But a lot of people are also wondering: what’s a “tropical” storm doing heading for the snow belt?

Swing and a miss in the first paragraph. He clearly used 'snow belt' to paint a picture of how rare "tropical" storms should be in this part of the country even though it never snows in New York in August and tropical storms are actually quite frequent in the Atlantic waters offshore.

Category 3 Storms have rarely hit Long Island since the 1800s; one was the great unnamed storm of 1938, which sent 15-foot storm waters surging through what are now multimillion-dollar seaside homes. Normally, says Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, it’s “difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane.” The high-altitude wind shear may help knock the storm down a little this year, but the ocean temperatures won’t. They’re bizarrely high—only last year did we ever record hotter water.

And wow, a Cat 3 didn't hit this time, either, despite the ominously warm surface water just offshore. In reality the storm was a category 1 when it reached North Carolina and a strong tropical storm when it made landfall in New York City. His piece was written as if a Cat 3 storm was a certainty, proving the world-changing strength of global warming. Strike two.

Remember—this year has already seen more billion-dollar weather-related disasters than any year in U.S. history. Last year was the warmest ever recorded on planet Earth. Arctic sea ice is near all-time record lows. Record floods from Pakistan to Queensland to the Mississippi basin; record drought from the steppes of Russia to the plains of Texas. Just about the only trauma we haven’t had are hurricanes plowing into the U.S., but that’s just luck—last year was a big storm year, but they all veered out to sea. This year we’re already on letter I—which in a normal year we don’t get to until well into October. Every kind of natural system is amped up, holding more power—about ¾ of a watt extra energy per square meter of the Earth’s surface, thanks to the carbon we’ve poured into the atmosphere. This is what climate change looks like in its early stages.

That's sort of a pop fly single to left. Nobody can deny there has been an almost Biblical level of tornadoes, drought, floods and snow-storms in since October of 2010 but the question is whether they are directly related to higher global temperatures as opposed to say prophesy from The Revelation or the end of the Mayan calendar.

Nobody of science should doubt that world temps are higher now than in the late 1800s, the question is whether this trend was created solely by mankind or if mankind only chipped in a bit on a natural upswing coming off the Little Ice Age. The guilt-ridden enviro-lefties always assume humans are completely to blame then proceed to attack that strawman by suggesting the only correction to the problem is an autocratic world government willing to force enviro-conservatism on the rubes who don't know better. Like Tea Partiers. After all, it's a crisis.

But their gloom and doom predictions on hurricane strength don't always compute. Both the Environmental Defense Fund and Al Gore's websites STILL contain an as-yet proven theory that hurricanes will be stronger on a warmer planet despite that science not yet being 'settled'. McGibben points to the massive amount of rainfall with Irene, which is true, but check out Tropical Storm Jose, currently making it's way harmlessly north past Bermuda as of this writing. On startup it had a neat little circulation but appeared skeleton-like with cloud bands and very little rainfall. Storms like Jose were hard to find in the old days before satellites but now they contribute to the annual storm count, which later translates into a proof of global warming because there are more storms.

McKibben's warming theory about Irene's rainfall can also be challenged by the curious little tropical storm named Don that hit the Texas coast near Brownsville in July then defied prediction by fizzling out within 6 hours of landfall. If higher temperatures allow storms to contain more rainfall (warm air can hold more moisture) then does it also cause them to fall apart quicker when their circulations get disrupted by land masses, the rain being absorbed back into the atmosphere through evaporation? It's far from settled, as yet just another example of how scientists don't completely understand the feedback mechanisms.

At any rate, McKibben eventually gets into the meat of his piece--politics. He tears into the Obama administration for not being liberal enough in citing their tepid environmental report on a pipeline project designed to tap tar sands in Alberta and transport oil south into the US, quoting climate doyen James Hansen:

Those tar sands are the second-biggest pool of carbon on the continent; if we tap into them in a big way, says the federal government’s premier climate scientist James Hansen, it’s “essentially game over for the climate.”

In other words, it's game over if we switch some of our sources of oil from Saudi Arabia to Alberta regardless of whether we use the same amount of energy or not. Rather illuminating because it shows what the enviros really want: world governments stepping in and crushing free-market capitalism due to the emergency. And here we were told that getting off Arabian oil would quell the war machine.

In the end Irene will be a bona fide disaster, already costing billions in lost revenue and likely costing billions to clean up. But it certainly wasn't the historic 100 year storm of our lifetimes as characterized by Obama, Christie and Bloomberg. In retrospect it will be an interesting study in human behavior as politicians felt compelled to run around like headless chickens to make sure they weren't "Katrina-ed" by the press if the worst occurred, while the media ran around like headless chicken-littles trying to create stormageddon to boost excitement and ratings (although not everybody obeyed).

And forecasters, wary of how the media would treat them should they not forecast a worse case and one occurred in a major population area, basically introduced a worse case while knowing (as McKibben pointed out) that climatology doesn't favor one. So everyone has now gone into explain, blame, slash or pretend mode until the next one comes. And it could really be bad!

A NEW MEME 8/29/11

Here's Norah O'Donnell reporting live on president Obama's good response to Irene, including something that's been showing up on several lefty message boards--the notion that Bush did not declare a federal disaster area for Louisiana or Mississippi BEFORE the storm hit as Obama did with the east coast. She made a point to note how Obama's early declaration stood in start contrast.

Just one problem. Bush issued a pre-Katrina state of emergency declaration on Saturday before the storm hit:

The President today declared an emergency exists in the State of Louisiana and ordered Federal aid to supplement state and local response efforts in d in the path of Hurricane Katrina beginning on August 26, 2005, and continuing.

So no, Bush didn't declare a federal disaster area before Katrina but he did declare a state of emergency, which was also declared at state level a day prior. For some reason that distinction wasn't worth noting to CBS.

Angry Nature

We've just had an earthquake on "Bush's Fault" (emanating close to Monticello), which sent angry land waves up the east coast to New York and Boston. No, it wasn't likely due to fracking, as according to this map there had been few if any earthquakes in that area in the past six months. Weird, nevertheless.

Next comes the potential for a lot of ocean waves as hurricane Irene gains steam passing the "Rangel Islands" and fixes (southern slang) to head north towards yet another assault on the damn Yankees (more southern talk). The media pandemonium is just beginning--actually some of it might be warranted if it gets people to think twice about certain activities for awhile--but hurricanes along the east coast are not always as destructive as billed.

One of the reasons is the proximity of the northeast quadrant, the worst part, to the coast. If the storm hugs the coast that quadrant never makes landfall until it hits something nearing a right angle, which might be Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

Back in August 1976 Hurricane Belle spun up the coast, becoming a major hurricane at one point, then hitting the Long Island shoreline and continuing up the Connecticut River Valley. The main impact was heavy rain and flooding since the northeast quadrant never got to New York City. It's still early.

Crest

Just a few snapshots from the Memphis riverfront at crest..
Looking south over Tom Lee park, which is partially under water.


Looking north towards Mud Island..

This is along interstate 40 several miles west of Memphis..

The long thin line in the background is a railroad trestle. It's up to it's limit..

In West Memphis warning of workers ahead.. apparently frogmen.

The power of nature is truly awesome, as was the authorities' ability to predict the crest. Now the slow fall begins here and the concern moves downstream.

By the way, the mayor wants everyone to know that most of Memphis is open for business. The founders of this city weren't dummies, they built most of the city along a bluff that's well higher than river level. The only areas flooding are directly beside the river and along some of the tributaries, but the flooding doesn't extend very fall inland in this area. Of course that's no consolation for anyone who has lost their home. What's amazing is that in 1937, the last time the water was this high, 500 people died.

River Rise

Here's what the Mississippi at Memphis normally looks like in early summer, looking out towards the south end of Mud Island:

There is a long bank from Riverside Drive to the area where the paddle boats are boarded. Notice the flags on the end of Mud Island.

Here's what it looked like today:

The boats are at street level now.

Here's another shot from the end of Union Avenue as it intersects Riverside drive, which is closed going southward due to water on the road at the Beale Street light..



Water at 45 feet, heading to 48 feet by next week. Speaking of Beale Street, it's well above the flood (in case you have a trip planned soon)..

The good news is that local rivers feeding the Mississippi are down below flood now that the rain has stopped, which has cut in half the number of homes and businesses they expected to be susceptible to flooding. Here's hoping..

Muddy Waters

The river is rising, perhaps soon to levels unseen by any living Memphian. But this seems strange:

Tunica’s casinos are planning to shut down this weekend because of flooding concerns along the Mississippi River.

When Mississippi passed the law allowing gambling it was for 'riverboat gambling'. Riverboats float. So why the big concern about a rising river down there? Yeah, I know.

Meanwhile, up here, and elsewhere along the river, it's a grim, slow moving disaster in the waiting. We're not sure what will result here if the Bird's Point levee is blown, but then again this is uncharted territory. And if that's not enough, we got a call from somebody today that sounded a lot like an automatic voice telling us to brace ourselves because a test earthquake was occurring. It was a good reminder, but geez, we're all kind of shaky down here right now.

Reactions

I don't know anything about nuclear power or the physics of radioactive fallout. But if it can be carried long distances by upper level Stratospheric winds then these wind forecast charts showing a 'zonal' or west-east flow of the jetstream across the Pacific don't look so good. Found this German site showing what appears to be a plume forecast. Most of the plumes don't reach North America, though, at least out through a week.

We have to wonder if sites like "Helium.com" advising west coasters to eat lots of brown rice to combat radiation sickness are reasonable or just stoking fear and panic. My guess--and it's just a guess--is that there's no big cause for alarm in North America, at least right now. After all, if the Commander-in-Chief is out playing golf things can't be all that bad.