I'm just saying.......

I heard the President's speech to America tonight and I was wondering, or should I say, I'm just saying, If the 2 journalists were shot instead of being beheaded would we as a Country do what President Obama has committed us to do? I think not! Dead is dead and while it is a horrific way to end ones life, is it necessary to commit the United States to an unending continuing conflict in the Middle East again? You tell me!

Market and World affairs comments for May 20th

First of all, yesterday there was more data reported that wasn't very good for the economy. The Leading Indicators for April came in at a -0.3% reading for April. This compares to a +0.4% reading for March. March's number was revised upward yesterday as well, from a +0.4% to +0.7% reading.

I have included today a chart of the Dow for the past 3 months as a follow-up to yesterday's chart of the Dow for a year. It gives you a better refinement of just where you are and where either support or resistance will be broken. The triangle of the convergence of these lines are getting closer. Here is the chart below.


Yesterday in politics here, President Obama gave his highly anticipated speech on the Middle East peace process and North Africa's Arab Spring uprising. The President spelled out in clear terms what had been said in private regarding the Israel/Palestinian peace process over the past 20 years. One memorable line from the President's speech was this one, "At a time when the people of the Middle East and North Africa are casting off the burdens of the past, the drive for a lasting peace that ends the conflict and resolves all claims is more urgent than ever." President Obama pushed both sides to accept his starting point — borders for Palestine, security for Israel — and get back to solving a stalemate "that has grinded on and on and on." It was a good start effort by this President to state the realities we all know to be true.

I for one like President Obama's straight talk as it has been lacking by many of our previous Presidents who have strived for peace in the MIddle East.

President Obama, in his address Thursday on the Arab world uprising, said that Syria's Assad should lead his country to democracy or "get out of the way."

Again President Obama's straight talk was a welcome change form the previous lack of a stand with respect to these uprisings for democracy in Tunisia, Egypt, and the other countries of the region. You may not agree with his policy now, but at least it is clearer.

I think there was too much information contained in his speech and to get an accurate picture of what President Obama actually said, it is best to read the transcript or listen to his speech titled, "Moment of Opportunity" in its entirety.

Market comments for May 19th

Initial Jobless Claims were reported this morning and Futures rose on the news, signaling a good day in the stock market. Here's the news. You tell me if it is good news.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 409K, as reported this morning. That was down from last week's reported number of 434K. However last week's number was revised upward from 434K to 438K. Expectations (and hope) were for 400K or under because it was below 400K for a number of weeks.

So this was the good news on which the Futures rose this morning.

In other news this morning, the IMF chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, resigned his job to focus on the rape charges he is facing. President Obama will deliver a Middle East speech today dispelling any doubts that the U.S. supports the call for change.

I have added a chart of the Dow for the past year as it is instructive. Notice the Red uptrend line connecting all the low points. As long as the Dow stays above this line, the uptrend continues. You will also notice that there is a short Blue, which shows the most recent decline. Both this line and the Red line point to the axis at 12,450. This is the equilibrium point between the downward forces and upward forces. The upward forces have had and still have the upper hand until we break below the Red line. The longer Blue line connects all the tops of the move up this past year. You will also notice that since April, the Volume has picked up and this coincides with the recent decline phase we have been in.

Market comments for March 31st, 2011

I was listening to Art Cashin, of UBS Financial Services, on CNBC this morning, and he said that if we just had a few of the recent upheavals of Governments in the Middle East or concerns over a default of governments like Greece or Portugal, or an Earthquake of magnitude 9.0 in Japan followed by a tsunami and then a Nuclear Power Plant meltdown, any one of these normally would have caused the stock market to have tanked with at least a 10% correction. That is an interesting thought to ponder as it has been Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who has single handedly kept the stock market artificially up at these lofty levels. Listen to Art Cashin below.

It is extremely difficult to time the market normally but with Bernanke using the printing presses of the Federal government, it is nearly impossible to predict the stock market moves. This is not good for the long run because when there is a disconnect from reality, there will be an unforeseen negative impact to our country, which will be much larger than any stock market drop would cause, That is where we're headed and there appears no way to prevent it. As a close friend of mine has stated to me many times, "We are all finished!" I would add that we are not now built on the Free Enterprise System, but rather a manipulated, controlled government which protects the wealthiest of us and doesn't care at all about the Middle Class or worse, the Poor and no better than that.

It's the end of the 1st quarter at the close of the market today. But tomorrow we will hear the Unemployment Rate numbers which doesn't count all of our unemployed. Most expect the number will "look" better. It's April Fool's Day too and if you believe the numbers the government discloses, then you too are a fool! We seem to be a gullible populace, aren't we. Just look at all the Birther's in the Republican Party. :))

Market comments for March 21st and the week

It was not surprising this morning that the market is up. The Dow is up 165 in early trading to 12,027 and the S&P 500 is up to 1295, all because of 2 things. First the success with the No-Fly Zone in Libya and secondly because of the fact Friday was Options expiration lat week. Let's face it the news isn't that good with Oil this morning up another $2.00/barrel. Many expect this trouble in Libya to end badly for Libyans. Don't forget we are dealing with a mad man in Gadhafi. And as they say the acorn doesn't fall far from the tree and he does have several sons, who are by his side in all of this mess.

Expect this week that we will form a lower low than we did last week at the Dow will make a try at going below 11,400. We have had 3 strong rallies the past 3 trading days and I think that string of moves is about finished.

Last week I purchased the Agricultural ETF, symbol DBA for $32.60, as I see agricultural commodities rising with oil prices surging on Middle East concerns as well as of Japan's nuclear reactor concerns and recovery from the Tsunami and earthquake. I expect DBA to go to $36 in the short term because of these problems.

And on the political front, the Republicans are not dealing with the debt issues except in very small ways. So the mountain of debt we have is still rising with this republican Congress and this unwilling President who has his eyes only on 2012 and not making any mistakes. He has been absent on this issue for fear of angering constituents. But that's not leading at all, I'm sorry to say!

Obama's stimulus strategy: Will it work?

Here is another question I have been thinking about for over the past month or so. It is probably the most important question of our time. Much is hanging in the balance including the future of our country.

The first place to start thinking about this question is focusing on what is the purpose of a stimulus. There are several results we are hoping a stimulus package will create. The first is to save jobs and keep people working while we wait for the economy to stabilize. The second derivative effect we are hoping for is additional job creation from these jobs. The trouble with investing in cement projects like building schools and roads is that they do not grow the economy to be self sustaining for the long term. These are short term events, with no life beyond building the project. When the roads are fixed, it's done. When the school is built, we just take crowded schools and make them less crowded by moving students and teachers into them. True stimulus needs to have a multiplier effect. But where could a stimulus create a multiplier effect? The answer is in new technology!

New technology is a part of President-Elect Obama's stimulus package included in his proposal for the Greening of America with solar energy, wind power and other renewable technology, which will reduce and eliminate our dependence on imported oil from the Middle East. But we will need much more of an investment in this area, if we are to stop the transfer of wealth from the U.S. to the Middle East. There needs to be investment in specific technology which will create new jobs in new areas where America can take the lead. Finding new sources of energy for the planet is a very important one, given the negative effects coming from Global Warming. Building more fuel efficient automobiles is good, but building new cars, which use alternative green technology, is better.

What else has a multiplier effect of creating job, which create additional jobs? Can you think of places where job creation creates more jobs? Leave a comment.

Helping to reduce foreclosures is possible with compromise by all affected parties.

I have been giving some thought recently about what to do about those who had sub prime mortgages and find themselves facing foreclosure. The object being how to do the best to keep the most number of people in their homes and the fewest foreclosures, all this without having to lower the value of the home. It is a monumental task indeed, but it is a huge problem facing the very survival of our economy and financial institutions.

So I have made some assumptions necessary for the solution to be acceptable to all those involved, including the Homeowner. Here are the assumptions I made:

• The mortgage amount of the loan stays intact at what the purchaser borrowed.
• The length of the loan terms would be extended to the maximum.
• The originator of the loan must only repackage the loan and sell it either to Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae and would be owned by the Government similar to FHA loans.
• The percentage interest of the loan would be set the lowest interest rate from the past 25 years.
• The owners must be occupants of the homes. No subletting or renting allowed.
• Down payments on these homes were 15% on average.
• The length of the loan terms will be extended to 50 years from the current 30 years.
• Medium Home prices by region are assumed to be as follows:
West $253,600
Northeast $246,800
Midwest $152,500
South $167,200. All these figures were as of Nov. 4, 2008 and can be checked here.

So if one assumes thew average price of a home to be $200,000 for loan calculations and that no principal has been paid on these loans, then various monthly payments can be calculated.

Here are some possible mortgage payments:

This would compare to 6.5% for 30 year current mortgages for a loan of $200,000-$30,000 (15% down payment) or $170,000 mortgage of a monthly payment of $1,074.52

With these sub prime loans set to 4.3% for 50 year mortgages for a loan $170,000 mortgage of a monthly payment of $ 689.83.

When I look at these numbers it would make a significant difference to a home owner facing foreclosure, because it is a reduction of $384.69/month in the payments or a 35.8% reduction in monthly payments. I picked the 4.3% interest rate because back in the mid 90's banks had interest rates that low on mortgages. This reduction could make all the difference in the world, to a struggling homeowner and their family.

I know the homeowners will never pay off their homes here, but if they can still occupy them, and, given time, with house appreciation, they could sell their homes for some money back some day. Besides, how many of us really pay off our mortgage before we are ready to sell and move to another home? Not many I assure you. At least this is a solution. You have any better ideas? I am open to hear them.

Why high gas prices are just what the doctor ordered!

It is simply amazing at all the cries about high gas prices. People are screaming at politicians to do something about it. But for all the shortsightedness by the masses, there has been a tremendous benefit which more are starting to see.

First the headline from today's news: "106 mpg 'air car' creates buzz, questions." It seems that free enterprise is coming to the rescue. Instead of drilling for more gas, many are thinking of ways to eliminate our need for Oil and Gasoline by creating cars that run on air, corn, hydrogen and whatever else the imagination can muster. This is the good side of high gas prices. I say, if you want to break the stranglehold the Middle East has on the rest of the world, keep gas prices high and you will eventually see the wealth of the Middle East crumble. The intellectuals know that and so don't the leaders of Oil rich countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Do you wonder why oil prices have dropped dramatically in the past few weeks, think again about it. When people think of ways of eliminating the need for Oil and Gasoline, you will see the prices drop even farther and the speculators will be caught as well. I say good for that as well.

Are you ready to exert your power in this Election?

They say Barack Obama is caught between a rock and a hard place regarding the weekend comments by Rev. Wright at the NAACP meeting and other media events. They want us to believe that even though Barack has admonished his former pastor's comments, the American people will blur them together including each of their positions with no distinction. When they still haven't made up their mind who to vote for, they will acquiesce and vote for Hillary. If that is so, then the American people will get who they deserve for President.

It is my firm belief that there is at least 30% of the American people who don't think at all. Those are the ones who still approve of President Bush's policies in Iraq and here at home. They are not worth discussing any issue with as they have drunk the Kool-Aid and now are zombies. Then there are about another 15-17 % that will vote for John McCain because he is a Republican. That gets John McCain to 45-47%. The Democrats have given a majority vote for Barack which gives him about 28% and Hillary has about 24%, with Independents the final choosers in the Fall Election. Many Independents have joined with Barack, as they see a new hope not seen since John F. Kennedy.

The only question that truly remains is the following: Are we going to let the media dictate the issues we talk about during the next 6 months? If so then we will decide the election based upon associations and distractions, rather than substantive issues like the war in Iraq, getting a better Energy policy that helps liberate us from the dependence on Middle East Oil and our own Oil companies, giving tax breaks for Middle and low income people and increasing the tax on the wealthiest, helping to solve the Social Security financial crisis by ensuring it is there for our next generation, paying down the National Debt, solving the home foreclosure and subprime loans problem for so many Americans, passing a GI Bill to help support the troops who have given so much for their country, and so many other issues on foreign policy to help restore America's greatness in the world. This is up to us, not someone else. Change the channel of your TV when you here anything that isn't real issue oriented, with the emphasis on the word REAL! When the media ratings drop, maybe they will do something better, like cover real issues. If you speak to others about the Primary, discuss issues, not distractions. Start speaking out about what you want this election to be about or we all lose. And when we lose, the rest of the world does too. Remember, only we can give power to Swift Boat ads when we listen to them and alter our positions as a result.

UPDATE:

I almost forgot this action. Anyone, in the remaining States to still hold their Primary, should help end this folly, by voting overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. That will at least stop the rhetoric till September.

June's 2 week total of Fatalities in Iraq

U.S. Military fatalities for the Iraq war in the first 2 weeks of June totaled 42. For the entire month of June 2006 there was a total of 61 fatalities.

U.S. Military fatalities for the Iraq war in the first 2 weeks of May totaled 50. For the entire month of May 2006 there was a total of 69 fatalities. For the first 2 weeks of April, 2007 there were 51 fatalities so we are on our way for another record month for fatalities.

The hot summer months of June, July and August in Iraq hopefully will keep the death rate down as it did last year. U.S. Fatalities in July of 2006 were 43 and in August of 2006 were 65, for comparison. This comes of a record May 2007 where we lost 127 compared to 69 in May of 2006.

Things can't get better without a diplomatic solution and our President and his Secretary of State seem to have gone AWOL in that area. This while the Palestinian territory is in flames. It is only a matter of time before the terrible suicide bombings begin again to inflict terror on the innocent in Israel. Madness is everywhere now in the Middle East being unleashed by a war of choice in Iraq. September will not bring those in charge to change direction as their “surge” has increased the violence to a point where both the President and his supporters of the war like McCain and Giuliani will see a “worse catastrophe ensuing” should we leave. Our continued presence there has created a “worse catastrophe ensuing”, so stop making this a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bring the troops home.

Is a 2 State Solution now possible for the Palestinian territory?

The 2 State solution much touted by the Bush and Clinton Administration did not have that solution to be 2 States. Gaza and the West Bank, but it looks like that is what is developing. When there is no diplomacy on the ground, the parties will create a new dynamic that eventually will draw us in, dragging our feet and whinning the entire time.