Technical Analysis - February 23 2009

S&P500 (770, last week 827 or -6.9% w.o.w)
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This will be the second week of hefty losses. The Daily MACD and MACD Histogram had a negative crossover 5 sessions ago and has thus joined the Daily Parabolic SAR, Guppy MMAs and DMIs (+ve and –ve) turning bearish. For the weekly readings, the MACD and MACD Histogram are still positive but the Parabolic SAR has just turned negative. The weekly ADX trend, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still weak. Support is around 700 and resistance at 820.
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KLSE CI (890, last week 910 or -2.2% w.ow)

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Despite the daily indicators MACD, Parabolic SAR, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) have all turned positive during last week, indicators such as MACD and DMI (+ve and –ve) are now slowly flashing negative although no crossover downwards yet.. The weekly charts MACD and Parabolic SAR continues to be positive but the weekly ADX trend, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still otherwise. The index is expected to trade between 860 and 910.

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HangSeng (12,699, last week 13,555 or -6.3% w.o.w )

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With a hugh drop during the week, the daily indicators like Parabolic SAR, MACD and MACD Histogram dips under water again. As of weeks ago, the DMI (+ve and -ve) and Guppy MMAs continue to be negative. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR but the weekly ADX trend, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still bearish . Support is seen at 12,000 and resistance at 13,200.

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Nikkei 225 (7,416, last week 7,779 or -4.7% w.ow)

All the daily indicators like the Parabolic SAR, MACD, MACD Histogram, Guppy MMAs and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are bearish now. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram. However, the Parabolic SAR, Guppy MMAs, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) are still weak. Support is seen at 7,000 and resistance at 8,000.

* Bloomberg: South Korea is prepared to support won, banks as market tumbles.

* Bloomberg: Asia agrees on USD120B pool of currency reserves as crisis worsens.

* BT: Macquarie:- Investors positive on Malaysia stocks. It picks Genting, AMMB, KNM, TMI and Tenaga.

* InvestorsBizDaily: Clinton urges China to keep buying US Treasurys.

Technical Analysis - February 16 2009

S&P500 (827, last week 869 or -4.8% w.o.w)

Another volatile week. Although index was up strongly a week earlier, the following week was a "strong down". The Daily Parabolic SAR which was the first to turn bullish is now bearish for the last two trading sessions. The Daily MACD has hooked down but has not crossover negatively yet. The MACD Histogram is still holding on while Guppy MMAs and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are remains negative. For the weekly readings, the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR are still positive. The weekly ADX trend, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still bearish. Support is around 820 and resistance at 900.

KLSE CI (910, last week 897 or +1.4% w.ow)

The daily indicators MACD, Parabolic SAR, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) have all turned positive during the week. The weekly charts MACD and Parabolic SAR continues to be positive but the weekly ADX trend, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still bearish. The index is expected to trade between 860 and 931.

HangSeng (13,555, last week 13,655 or -0.7% w.o.w )

The daily indicators like Parabolic SAR, MACD and MACD Histogram continues to be positive. The DMI (+ve and -ve) and Guppy MMAs are still negative. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR but the weekly ADX trend, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still bearish . Support is seen at 13,000 and resistance at 15,000.

Nikkei 225 (7,779, last week 8,077 or -3.7% w.ow)

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Following S&P500, the Daily Parabolic SAR which was the first to turn bullish is now bearish for the last two trading sessions. The Daily MACD has hooked down but has not crossover negatively yet. The MACD Histogram is still holding while Guppy MMAs and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are remains negative. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram. However, the Parabolic SAR, Guppy MMAs and DMI (+ve and –ve) are still negative. Support is seen at 7,500 and resistance at 8,600.

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* China's FDI falls 32.6%

* Japan's GDP plunges at 12.7% annual rate in Q4 of 2008.

Technical Analysis - February 10 2009

S&P500 (869, last week 826 or +5.2% w.o.w)

What a turnaround! Now the Daily MACD and MACD Histogram have joined the Daily Parabolic SAR to become positive as well while Guppy MMAs and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are slightly negative. At this juncture, the indicators may continue to turn bullish if further bad news in the market are being discounted. For the weekly readings, the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR are still positive.The weekly ADX trend, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still bearish. Support is around 820 and resistance at 900.

KLSE CI (897, last week 884 or +1.5% w.ow)

The daily indicators MACD, Parabolic SAR, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) although have turned negative recently is seen making a comeback. Unlike the S&P500, none of the indicators have register positive readings yet but will soon be if the markets are to move up discounting further bad news. The weekly charts MACD and Parabolic SAR are still positive but the weekly ADX trend, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still bearish. The index is expected to trade between 860 and 915.

HangSeng (13,655, last week 13,278 or +2.8% w.o.w )

After gaining almost 8% in two weeks, the daily indicators like Parabolic SAR, MACD and MACD Histogram have turned positive again. The DMI (+ve and -ve)and Guppy MMAs are still negative but has improved. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR but the weekly ADX trend, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still bearish . Support is seen at 13,000 and resistance at 15,000.

Nikkei 225 (8,077, last week 7,994 or +1.0% w.ow)

The daily indicators like MACD and MACD Histogram has joined the Daily Parabolic SAR to become positive during the week However, the DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still negative. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram. However, the Parabolic SAR which turned negative are still as such but will turn bullish soon if the market continues to turn upward. Support is seen at 7,700 and resistance at 8,600.

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* Bloomberg: China's inflation slows to 1% in January 2009 from a year earlier, weakest pace in 2 years as economy cools. Many analysts are predicting deflation looming

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* BT(Singapore): Delhi expects growth to slow to 7.1%.

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* YahooFinance: Obama to Congress: Pass stimulus, don't play games.

Technical Analysis - January 30 2009

S&P500 (826, last week 832 or -0.72% w.o.w )

Except for the Daily Parabolic SAR which turned positive recently, all other indicators egs MACD, MACD Histogram, Guppy MMAs and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are negative. For the weekly readings, the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR are still positive but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. The weekly ADX trend and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are bearish while Guppy MMAs is weakening further. Expect index to be at best consolidating. Support is around 780 and resistance at 850.

KLSE CI (884, last week 873 or +1.3% w.ow)

The market still has a 1% gain for the year. The daily indicators MACD, Parabolic SAR, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) have turned bearish. The weekly charts MACD and Parabolic SAR are still positive but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. The index is expected to trade between 835 and 915.

HangSeng (13,278, last week 12,579 or +5.6% w.o.w )

Despite only traded for two days during the week, the index gained more than 5% . Despite this, all the daily indicators like Parabolic SAR, the daily MACD and MACD Histogram and Guppy MMAs are still negative. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. Support is seen at 12,600 and resistance at 15,000.

Nikkei 225 (7,994, last week 7,745 or +3.2% w.ow)

Similar with S&P500, except for the Daily Parabolic SAR, all the daily indicators like MACD and MACD Histogram, DMIs (+ve and –ve) and Guppy MMAs are still negative. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram. However, the Parabolic SAR has just turned negative. Support is seen at 7,400 and resistance at 8,400.

* JapanTimes: Japan's longest boom in the post war era died in October 2007. The boom lasted 69 months.

* CNN: Heaviest snow in 18 months partially criples UK.

* Will Australia cuts its interest rate by 150 basis point today similar with its NZ counterpart? Together with a slowing down economy and a negative trade deficit in December, watch AUD goes down further.

* Fitch: Outlook for KL currency rating negative.

* China considering new stimulus: Wen. A recent survey reveals that 20m migrants workers recently lost their jobs.

Technical Analysis - January 19 2009

S&P500 (850, last week 890 or -4.5% w.o.w )

The daily index has succumbed to selling pressure during last week. The Daily MACD, MACD Histogram, Guppy MMAs, Parabolic SAR and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are all showing negative already. However, we cannot discount a short term rebound during this week. For the weekly readings, the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR are still positive but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. The weekly ADX trend and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are not bullish yet while Guppy MMAs is weakening. The market is at best range bound. Like others, the market is still stuck in a major downtrend channel created since November 2007. Support is around 800 and resistance at 890.

KLSE CI (896, last week 919 or -2.5% w.ow)

One of the remaining few markets that still have a positive gain for the year but this may not likely to last soon. The index is finding it hard to sit above the daily 50-day ema. The daily indicators are at a crossroad again with the MACD, Parabolic SAR, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) going into an early bearish tone. The weekly charts MACD and Parabolic SAR are still positive but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. The market will need to work hard to avoid indicators turning negative again. To be positive, the index needs to clear the 935 level (a 20-day ema) and as such will breakaway from the major downtrend channel created since January 2008. The index is expected to trade between 850 and 970.

HangSeng (13,256, last week 14,377 or -7.8% w.o.w )

The index is determined to go south again. All the daily indicators like Parabolic SAR, the daily MACD and MACD Histogram and Guppy MMAs are turning negative and will remained so unless the index goes up strongly this week. We could see a short term rebound this week. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. Support is seen at 12,600 and resistance at 15,000.

Nikkei 225 (8,230, last week 8,837 or -6.9% w.ow)

Similar with S&P500 and HangSeng, the index seems determined to go south again. However, we cannot discount a short term rebound during this week. All the daily indicators like Parabolic SAR, the daily MACD and MACD Histogram and Guppy MMAs are turning negative and will remained so unless the index goes up strongly this week. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. Support is seen at 7,500 and resistance at 9,500.

* YahooFinance: Buffett says US in "economic Pearl Harbour".

* Bloomberg: China economy probably grew at slowest pace in 7 years as export slump.

* After ending 22 days of conflict leaving more than 1,200 Palestinians and 13 Israelis dead, Israel and Hamas has both declared victory?

Technical Analysis - January 12 2009

S&P500 (890, last week 932 or -4.5% w.o.w )

There are some mixed signals in the short term coming from the index. For example, even though the Daily MACD is still in the positive, the Daily Parabolic SAR and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are showing weakness already. For the weekly readings, the indicators are improving slowly and the MACD had a positive crossover and the weekly Parabolic SAR has also just turned positive. The weekly ADX trend and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are not bullish yet. Support is around 820 and resistance at 950.

KLSE CI (919, last week 894 or +2.8% w.ow)

Unlike the other markets, the daily indicators continued to improve further during the week. The index is still able to sit above the daily 50-day ema. The daily indicators of Parabolic SAR, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) are still positive. The weekly charts have improved and the MACD and Parabolic SAR are still positive. The uptrend will be enforced further if the weekly ADX trend and DMIs (+ve and –ve) were to turn bullish too, so far still moving towards it only. The index is expected to trade between 850 and 970.

HangSeng (14,377, last week 15,043 or -4.43% w.o.w )

Another volatile situation during the week. Market sentiment for the current term seems to be mixed. While the week before there was a positive turnaround for the index, this week witnessed a negative turn. The index is now below the daily 50-day ema of 14,850 again. Except for the Parabolic SAR, the daily MACD and MACD Histogram are slightly negative. The weekly charts are doing well, especially the MACD and MACD Histogram which are bullish. The weekly Parabolic SAR is also positive. It will be bullish for the market if it can break through the tough weekly 20-day ema of 16,000. Support is seen at 14,000 and resistance at 16,000.

Nikkei 225 (8,837, last week 8,860 or -0.26% w.ow)

The daily indicators also giving some mixed signal during the week as the index falls below the daily 50-day ema of around 8,900 level after a brief success. The daily MACD and DMI indicators which have just turned positive earlier are getting weaker while the Parabolic SAR has just turned bearish. The weekly charts are improving. The Parabolic SAR is positive too. It will be bullish for the market if it can break through the tough weekly 20-day ema of 9,500. The index is expected to trade between 8,500 and 9,500.

* Japan market closed today due to the Coming of Age holiday and will be reopen on Tuesday.

* Bloomberg: Satyam may restate earnings, be broken up following Chairman Raju's arrest.

* The WSJ: Disney is moving ahead on a plan for a USD3.59B theme park in Shanghai- one of the largest foreign investments in China.

* China says it can be the first to "recover" from the current financial crisis.

Confidence trickling in?

After more than a week of hefty rise in major world markets, market commentators have begun to feel "positive" again. Confidence seems to be on the rise amid cautiously due to a "new beginning" factor? It is true that markets do "look much better" now technically speaking despite the gloomy economic numbers being churned out. However, I must say the majority of the market participants are not convinced to go in just yet and only watched at the sideline. Or are you one of the many waiting for profit taking to set in before buying? Below is one of the few early bullish commentators for Bursa stocks. It advises "BUY" bombed-out stocks now despite an expectation of only a bear market rally this year.

Dow Jones Newswire: Malaysia players should move out of cash and into equities in 1Q09, says Macquarie; expects bear market rally this year, reckons investors "would do well to buy bombed-out stocks." Malaysian earnings likely to outshine region in 1Q09 as most of listed companies not exporters; also says "at some point, regional equity markets should respond to an easing in the bad news as fiscal policy stabilizes economic conditions towards mid-2009, leading to a partial recovery in 3Q." Recommends "bombed-out" stocks like AMMB(1015.KU), Genting(3182.KU), TM International(6888.KU), Tenaga(5347.KU). Still, warns market recovery expected to fade in 4Q as fiscal stimulus insufficient "and growth falls again once the money finishes traveling through the system"; reckons more fiscal stimulus would be needed for economy, forecasts "real recovery" through course of 2010.

* Above - Meydan RaceCourse Dubai -a joint venture project between WCT and Arabtec now gone "off course". See below.

* First limit down for the year...WCT Bhd (WCT) hits limit down in early morning trade today before it was suspended at 9.12am by Bursa Malaysia. The suspended price was RM1.29 The contract worth RM4.6b was cancelled “because of non-adherence to the agreed time schedule for construction.” WCT will make a material announcement late today. Meanwhile here are the latest TP for the stock. RHB Research RM1.28, AmResearch RM1.36. According to DJ, it may find support at MYR1.07 (Oct. 28 low), next at 90.5 sen (limit down threshold).

* Dr M: Save Palestine, Boycott US goods! Is it that easy Dr M? "OK, lets start by not using the computer!" Think of Microsoft, www, trades ......

* CNBC: People's Bank of China predicts China 2008 GDP growth seen at 9.3% and CPI at 6%.

* ChinaDaily: PWC: IPOs for China and HK will begin to pick up in the 2nd half of the year as the impact of stimulus package starts to feed into the wider economy.

BT: Palm oil at more than 2 month high. March delivery is now at RM1,894 a MT.

Technical Analysis - January 5 2009

S&P500 (932, last week 873 or +6.8% w.o.w )

The index worked extremely hard during the week with a hefty rise of almost 7%. As a result, the daily indicators continued to be in the positive last week. The index is now above the daily 50-day ema. For the weekly readings, the indicators are improving slowly and the MACD had a positive crossover but the weekly Parabolic SAR is not positive yet. The uptrend will be enforced further if the daily/weekly ADX trend and DMIs (+ve and –ve) were to turn bullish too, so far still moving towards it only. Support is around 890 and resistance at 980.

KLSE CI (894, last week 867 or +3.1% w.ow)

The daily indicators continued to improve further during the week especially during the last day of trading for the week. The index went a step higher and close the week sitting above the daily 50-day ema despite the index under pressure as evident from the high daily stochastic oscillator. The daily indicators of Parabolic SAR, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) are still positive. The weekly charts have improved and the MACD and Parabolic SAR are still positive. The uptrend will be enforced further if the weekly ADX trend and DMIs (+ve and –ve) were to turn bullish too, so far still moving towards it only. The index is expected to trade between 850 and 930.

HangSeng (15,043, last week 14,184 or +6.06% w.o.w )

What a turnaround by the index again. Despite trending lower the week before, the index jumped 6% and is now above the daily 50-day ema . Despite this, the daily MACD and MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR are still slightly negative. The weekly charts are doing well, especially the MACD and MACD Histogram which are bullish. The weekly Parabolic SAR is also positive. Support is seen at 14,000 and resistance at 15,800.

Nikkei 225 (8,860, last week 8,740 or +1.37% w.ow)

The daily indicators continued to improve further during the week. The index seems to be heading towards the daily 50-day ema of around 8,900 level. The DMI indicators have just turned positive. However, the daily/weekly stochastic oscillator is at a high level which requires the index to correct soon. The weekly charts are improving. The Parabolic SAR has just turned bullish too. The index is expected to trade between 8,500 and 9,500.

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* World condemns Israel's offensive in Gaza Strip.

* Bloomberg: Fed officials endorse "big stimulus" to pull economy out of recession.

* Bloomberg: Obama said to push for USD300b tax cuts in economic stimulus package.

* The Standard: HK investors of Lehman minibonds may have to pay around 20% of any money they receive to their US lawyers.

Technical Analysis - December 29 2008

S&P500 (873, last week 888 or-1.7% w.o.w )

The daily indicators continued to register uptrend although some weaknesses were shown last week. During the week, the index dropped below the 880 support level, ie the 20 day ema. The index needs to work hard to prop up the daily indicators so as to remain bullish. For the weekly readings, the indicators are improving slowly and the MACD is continuing to move upwards but no positive crossover yet. The weekly Parabolic SAR is also not positive yet. The uptrend will be enforced further if the daily/weekly ADX trend and DMIs (+ve and –ve) were to turn bullish too, so far still moving towards it only. Support is around 850 and resistance at 960.

KLSE CI (867, last week 876 or -1.03% w.ow)

The daily indicators improved further during the week despite a w.o.w decline. The index is still above its 20 day ema. The daily indicators of Parabolic SAR, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) are still positive but the DMI (+ve and –ve) are not strong. As indicated weeks ago, there is a likelihood the index will be under pressure again as evident from the high daily stochastic oscillator. This indicator is still correcting. The volume is also uninspiring. The weekly charts have improved and the MACD and Parabolic SAR are still positive. The uptrend will be enforced further if the weekly ADX trend and DMIs (+ve and –ve) were to turn bullish too, so far still moving towards it only. The index is expected to trade between 835 and 900.

HangSeng (14,184, last week 15,128 or -6.24% w.o.w )

A worrying trend just emerged during the week. The daily MACD and MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR turned negative on the 24 December. The index which is the leading positive trend setter suddenly turned bearish. This was the due to the index's large drop during last week and its inability to remain above the 15,000 level or the 50 day ema. It is now below the 20 day ema of 14,500. Lets hope this could be a temporary situation as its daily stochastic indicator is poised to move upwards again. The weekly charts is also doing well, especially the MACD which had a positive crossover during the week. The weekly Parabolic SAR is also bullish. Support is seen at 13,300 and resistance at 15,500.

Nikkei 225 (8,740, last week 8,589 or +1.76% w.ow)

The daily indicators continued to improved further during the week. The index seems to be bunching around its 20 day ema of 8,500 level. It would be bullish for the index to see if the daily ADX trend and DMI indicators could show positive uptrend soon. The weekly charts are improving with the MACD crossed over on Friday. The Parabolic SAR has just turned bullish too. The index is expected to trade between 7,500 and 9,500.

* Selamat menyambut Ma'al Hijrah.

* Job losses on the rise...from Kuching to Kedah....from Nikko Electronics to Western Digital...Canon to Sony....expect more social and crime related problems to come...every one, plz stay alert and be very careful where ever you are...safety is our No 1 priority.

* Remisiers turn to part time jobs. Sigh!

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* Violence and unrest greeting the new 2009....Israel/Gaza, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Iraq.....

* Euro currency turning 10 years old come this January 1 2009! It is seen by many analysts as fulfilling promise as a way to lower borrowing costs, ease trade and tourism, boost growth and strengthen the European community.

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* Reuters via TheStar: Countdown to the coming 2009 will need to add an extra 1 second to match Earth's spin. It will be the 24th extra second to be added to the Universal Time since 1972, when the practice began.

Technical Analysis - December 22 2008

S&P500 (888, last week 880 or +0.9% w.o.w )

The daily indicators continued to register uptrend. For the weekly readings, the indicators are improving slowly and the MACD is continuing to move upwards but no positive crossover yet. The weekly Parabolic SAR is also not positive yet. The uptrend will be enforced further if the daily/weekly ADX and DMIs (+ve and –ve) were to turn bullish too, so far still moving towards it only. Expect some selling pressure this week as evident from the daily stochastic oscillator. Support is around 850 and resistance at 960.

KLSE CI (876, last week 852 or +2.82% w.ow)

The daily indicators improved further during the week. The daily indicators of Parabolic Sar, ADX and DMI (+ve and –ve) in fact just turned positive too. As indicated last week, there is a likelihood the index will be under pressure again as evident from the high daily stochastic oscillator. The weekly charts have improved and the MACD and Parabolic SAR has just crossed over positively. The uptrend will be enforced further if the weekly ADX and DMIs (+ve and –ve) were to turn bullish too, so far still moving towards it only. The index is expected to trade between 835 and 900.

HangSeng (15,128, last week 14,758 or +2.51% w.o.w )

Perhaps still one of the best looking indices chart in the world now, the daily indicators are doing well and strong. The daily MACD in particular is above 0 level showing further improvement. It would be interesting to see if the daily ADX and DMI indicators can show positive uptrend soon; a position it last register in late July. The weekly charts is also doing well, especially the MACD which had a positive crossover during the week. The weekly Parabolic SAR is also bullish. Support is seen at 14,000 and resistance at 15,500 and 16,500

Nikkei 225 (8,589, last week 8,236 or +4.28% w.ow)

The daily indicators continued to improved further during the week. It would be bullish for the index to see if the daily ADX and DMI indicators can show positive uptrend soon. The weekly charts are improving with the MACD attempting to cross over. The Parabolic SAR has just turned bullish too. The index is expected to trade between 7,500 and 9,000.

* Bloomberg: US throws lifeline to Detroit as it pledged on a USD13.4b rescue plan.

* AP: Banks that are getting taxpayer bailouts awarded their top executives nearly USD1.6b in salaries, bonus and other benefits last year.

* ChinaDaily: China's forex reserves down to USD1.89T in October.(their first monthly fall since December 2003).

One last try

They say all of us must have a positive attitude towards life and whatever we do. We should not give up hope even if we have only the last minute to live. Seems that this "never give up" attitude is also being portrayed in the financial markets lately, see Weekly MACD. As evident from the charts attached above (HangSeng, KLCI, Nikkei 225 and S&P500), there were not many occasions where the Weekly MACD have a positive cross over during the year 2008. In fact, for most markets, there was only once this year (except for S&P500 which has twice). Even though there was a positive crossover during that period, the markets were quick to succumb to selling pressure. Currently we are seeing the 2nd attempt (3rd for the S&P500) of the markets, lead by HangSeng to go for the final try for the year 2008. Will the markets close for the year with an uptrending pattern embracing a brand new 2009 and leave all the worries and hardships behind? Although I believe the uptrend to be short term in nature, it will not be easy to achieve. Lets watch them closely and keep our fingers crossed.

(refer here for 10 year analysis of Weekly MACDs)

* Make some money while the sun shines? There are some selected trending stocks which may do well in this uptrend: young trend-Ramunia, Lion Ind, TMI, IJM, Sapuracrest , mature trend-IOI, Genting, Gamuda, Zelan, Kinsteel, AMMB, Sime.

* CNN: Oil sinks to 4 1/2 year to USD40.06 per barrel after OPEC decided to cut production by 2.2m barrels a day starting next month.

* BT: Macquarie: Malaysia to grow 1% next year.

* Morgan Stanley posts USD2.2b quarter losses.

* Bloomberg: Obama said to be weighing a stimulus spending plan exceeding USD850b.

* Bloomberg: British Airways, Qantas end merger talks after failing to agree on terms.

Technical Analysis - December 15 2008

S&P500 (880, last week 876 or +0.46% w.o.w )

Despite being flattish during the week, the daily indicators continued to register uptrend. For the weekly readings, the indicators are still showing weaknesses but the MACD is showing signs of bottoming. Support is around 850 and resistance at 960.

KLSE CI (852, last week 838 or +1.7% w.ow)

The daily MACD still remains in the positive as the index bounced up after touching the crucial level of decision making during the week. The MACD Histogram is also positive as it tries to go above the 20-day ema of 860. However, the Parabolic SAR continues to issue a negative signal giving the market some mix signal. There is a likelihood the index will be under pressure again as evident from the high daily stochastic oscillator at the end of Friday. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory but the MACD is showing signs of bottoming. The index is expected to trade between 835 and 900.

HangSeng (14,758, last week 13,846 or +6.6% w.o.w )

Perhaps one of the best looking indices chart in the world now, the daily indicators are doing well and strong. The daily MACD in particular is now above 0 level showing further improvement. The task of crossing above the 50-day ema, which is at 14,883 was achieved for a few sessions during the week but only to close below it on Friday. As reflected in the stochastic oscillator, there could be some short term profit taking during this week. It would be interesting to see if the daily ADX and DMI indicators can show positive uptrend soon; a position it last register in late July. The weekly charts is also doing well, especially the MACD is nearing positive crossover, a situation not seen since April 2008. Support is seen at 14,000 and resistance at 15,500 and 16,000.

Nikkei 225 (8,236, last week 7,918 or +4.02% w.ow)

The daily indicators eg MACD and MACD Histogram remained positive thanks to the index which came back to life during the week. The Parabolic SAR recovers and continues to issue a positive signal four sessions ago. However, it is important to note as reflected in the stochastic oscillator, there could be some short term profit taking during this week. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory but showing signs of bottoming. The index is expected to trade between 7,500 and 9,000.

* Bloomberg: OPEC the producer of 42% of the world's oil may make the biggest supply cut in a decade to halt the plunge in crude prices.

* Bloomberg: Japanese business confidence plunges most in 34 years as recession deepens.

* BBC: Ecuador set to default in its interest payment of external debt. Refer here for details.

* BT: Citi: KLCI will trough at "the earliest" next quarter and sees corporate earnings falling 11% in 2009.

* FT.com: Pakistan to remove its controversial market floor introduced in August this year to prevent share prices from tumbling further after many months of decline.

* Thailand's opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva appointed as the country's 3rd PM in 4 months. Now Thaksin's supporters have surrounded the Parliament! Wonder whether they can secure the airport too this time?

Technical Analysis - December 5 2008

S&P500 (876, last week 896 or -2.23% w.o.w )

During the week, the index gave up a small percentage of its gain gathered a week earlier. The daily indicators continued to register uptrend. It is noteworthy to mention the daily index is sitting above the 20-day ema; a task it tries to do since mid November. The ability of the index to stay positive will help the daily indicators turning more bullish and give a more concrete direction for the index which has been rather hard to predict of late. For the weekly readings, the indicators are still showing weaknesses but the MACD is showing signs of bottoming. Support is around 850 and resistance at 940.

KLSE CI (838, last week 866 or -3.2% w.ow)

The daily MACD still remains in the positive but is almost touching the crucial level of negative cross over again due to its listless trading during the week. The MACD Histogram is showing weakness ahead unless the index able to come to life again. The Parabolic SAR continues to issue a negative signal. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. The index is expected to trade between 800 and 900.

HangSeng (13,846, last week 13,888 or -0.3% w.o.w )

Similar to the S&P500, the daily indicators are doing well and strong. The Parabolic SAR has since turned positive too. It is noteworthy to mention the daily index is sitting above the 20-day ema; a position it has maintained since late November. The next task will be the 50-day ema, which is at 14,883. It would be interesting to see if the daily ADX and DMI indicators can show positive uptrend soon; a position it last register in late July. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory but there seems to be some bottoming process as evident from the MACD indicators. Support is seen at 13,300 and resistance at 15,500.

Nikkei 225 (7,918, last week 8,512 or -6.97% w.ow)

The similarity with HangSeng ended last week. The index seems to be getting weaker and did not recover after a bout of profit takings during the week. The daily indicators eg MACD and MACD Histogram which have decided to go up instead down a week earlier are now in flattish position. The Parabolic SAR continues to issue a negative signal. It is most important the index does come back to life positively during this week if to save the daily indicators from turning bad this week. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. The index is expected to trade between 7,500 and 8,500.

* Asian and European markets are flying on hope of global stimulus plans to boost world growth. Is the worse over already?

Technical Analysis - December 1 2008

S&P500 (896, last week 800 or +12% w.o.w )

Last week saw a major reversal for the index. It did a drastic U-turn with a weekly gain of 12%. As a result, the MACD cuts up again with a positive crossover 3 sessions ago. The Parabolic SAR has just turned positive 1 session ago. A word of cautious though, the Stochastic Oscillators are at its recent high and some profit may be taking place this week. The ability of the index to stay positive will help the daily indicators turning more bullish and give a more concrete direction for the index. For the weekly readings, the indicators are still showing weaknesses. Support is around 850 and resistance at 940.

KLSE CI (866, last week 867 or -0.00% w.ow)

The daily MACD remains in the positive and managed to gain a little strength with a dismal performance last week. However, the Parabolic SAR continues to issue a negative signal. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. The index is expected to trade between 830 and 950.

HangSeng (13,888, last week 12,659 or +9.7% w.o.w )

Looks like the daily indicators eg MACD and MACD Histogram have decided to go up instead down when they touches the decisive and crucial level last week. However, the Parabolic SAR continues to issue a negative signal. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. Support is seen at 12,200 and resistance at 15,000.

Nikkei 225 (8,512, last week 7,911 or +7.6% w.ow)

Similar to the HangSeng index, the daily indicators eg MACD and MACD Histogram have decided to go up instead down when they touches the decisive and crucial level last week. However, the Parabolic SAR continues to issue a negative signal. A word of cautious though, the Stochastic Oscillators are at its recent high and some profit taking be taking place this week. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. The index is expected to trade between 8,000 and 9,300.

* XFN: China is not facing major bubbles, adjustments "benign"-Central Bank adviser Fan Gang.

* XFN: 2009 growth seen at 10% and CPI at 3%-State Councils Development Research Centre researcher Zhang Ligun.

* Sounds familiar? The Standard: Canada's opposition parties have agreed in principals of a deal to topple the newly elected government arguing the government lead by PM Stephen Harper has no solid plan to deal with the current global economic crisis.

Technical Analysis - November 24 208

S&P500 (800, last week 873 or -8.37% w.o.w )

Finally, the daily indicators have all succumbed to the selling pressure during last week. The daily MACD and Histogram have all shown a negative signal for the last 4 trading sessions while the daily Parabolic SAR is showing bearishness. For the weekly readings, the indicators continued to show weakness. Sell again on the rebound. Support is around 750 and resistance at 850.

KLSE CI (867, last week 882 or -1.7% w.ow)

The daily MACD remains in the positive but continues to weaken. However the Parabolic SAR which was positive the week before has turned negative for the last 2 trading sessions suggesting a downtrend is on the way. The daily ADX and DMIs are still giving a sell signal. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. If the S&P500 index continues to give a SELL signal, the index will without doubt follow suit. The index is expected to trade between 830 and 950.

HangSeng (12,659, last week 13,543 or -6.5% w.o.w )

The daily indicators eg MACD are at a cross road now. If the index does not go up for the next 2 trading sessions, it will without doubt generate a SELL signal. As such it is crucial that the index perform well in the next few trading sessions. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. If the S&P500 index continues to give a SELL signal, the index will without doubt follow suit. Support is seen at 12,000 and resistance at 14,000.

Nikkei 225 (7,911, last week 8,462 or -6.5% w.ow)

Just like the HangSeng, the daily indicators eg MACD are at a cross road now. If the index does not go up for the next 2 trading sessions, it will without doubt generate a SELL signal. As such it is crucial that the index perform well in the next few trading sessions. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. If the S&P500 index continues to give a SELL signal, the index will without doubt follow suit. The index is expected to trade between 7,000 and 8,800.

* "D" is a dirty word in the finance world? Deflation, Deficit, Debt, Depression, Down, Dive, Devalue, Deleverage.....

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* AFP: IMF says global crisis will get worse and economic situation won't improve until 2010. So far, it has helped in financial distress countries like Iceland, Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia and Pakistan. Next in line would be Lativa. It has spent 1/5 of its USD250b fund in these countries in the last 2 weeks.

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* It will not stop till there is blood in the street? Now seen in Iceland after the economy fall apart with a banking collapse in October and its currency-Krona- has lost half of its value since January. I believe there will be more social unrest soon in many other less well "prepared" countries.

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* Will BNM cuts the OPR rate of 3.5% held since 30 months ago in their last rates meeting for this year? Half of the economists surveyed by TheEdge says so while another half says it will only cut in the 1Q2009.

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* BT: Goldman Sachs' s forecast on Genting International -maintains Neutral- TP 0.45 SG cents from 0.56 SG cents..

* YahooFinance: CitiGroup which will shed more than 50,000 jobs will get a USD306B loan guarantee and a USD20b of government cash.

Technical Analysis - November 17 2008

S&P500 (873, last week 931 or -6.2% w.o.w )

Due to some heavy sell down during last week, the daily indicators like MACD and MACD Histogram have weakened substantially but continued to stay slightly above water during the week. To make matter worse, the daily Parabolic SAR shows a selling signal 3 trading days ago. As noted last week, the daily ADX and the DMIs are not positive yet. For the weekly readings, the indicators continued to show bearishness. If the index continues to show weakness in the next 2 sessions, it will turn the daily indicators into selling mode again. As mentioned weeks ago, the index will have an uphill task to recover and it will be good if it could form a short term bottom around 850 to 950 levels, before going up further. Support is around 800 and resistance at 950.

KLSE CI (882, last week 894 or -1.34% w.ow)

The daily MACD and Parabolic SAR are still positive during the week. However, the daily ADX and DMIs do not show any bullish signal yet. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. The immediate task for the index is to determine a short term bottom and ideally it should be at 800-850 levels. If the S&P500 index was to turn negative in the next 2 sessions, the index will without doubt follow suit. The index is expected to trade between 830 and 950.

HangSeng (13,543, last week 14,243 or -4.91% w.o.w )

Despite heavy selling during last week, similar to KLSE CI and Nikkei 225 technical charts, the daily indicators like MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR continues to register a bullish signal. The daily ADX and the DMIs have not turned positive yet. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. If the S&P500 index was to turn negative in the next 2 sessions, the index will without doubt follows. Like the other indices, the HangSeng index has plenty of work to do and it is best if it will be able to form short term bottoms around 11,000 to 13,000. Support is seen at 13,000 and resistance at 15,500.

Nikkei 225 (8,462, last week 8,583 or -1.41% w.ow)

The daily indicators like MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR continues to register a bullish signal. However, the weekly indicators continue to show weakness. Like other indices, the Nikkei needs to find its short term bottom and preferably it should be at levels 7,500 and 8,300.The index will likely take the cue from the S&P500 for the next direction. The daily index has plenty of work cut out and it is best to regain some strong support at levels mentioned above. The index is expected to trade between 8,200 and 9,500.

* Japan is officially in recession after registering an annualised fall of 0.4% in the 3Q GDP growth (2nd Q -0.3%). The last recession was in 2001. The news follow earlier official announcements of recession in affected countries egs Singapore, NZ, Euro Zone and HK.

* Green Packet's 3Q net loss was RM10.3m. Hwang DBS Vickers cuts target to RM0.53 from RM0.70. It foresees company remaining in the red for FY08-FY09. The share price closed at RM0.73 at 5.00pm today.

* China Daily: Unemployment on the rise. Statistics in China showed that about six million students will graduate from universities and colleges next year and some 800,000 of this year's graduates are still awaiting job offers.

Technical Analysis - November 10 2008

S&P500 (931, last week 969 or -3.92% w.o.w )

The daily indicators like MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR have continued to be positive during the week. However the daily ADX and the DMIs are not positive yet. For the weekly readings, the indicators have not turned bullish. As mentioned last week, the index will have an uphill task to recover and it will be good if it could form a short term bottom around 850 to 950 levels, before going up further. Support is around 900 and resistance at 1,050.

KLSE CI (894, last week 864 or +3.5% w.ow)

The daily MACD and Parabolic SAR have turned slightly positive during the week. However, the daily ADX and DMIs do not show any bullish signal yet. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory.The immediate task for the index is to determine a short term bottom and ideally it should be at 800-850 levels. The index is expected to trade between 830 and 950.

HangSeng (14,243, last week 13,969 or +1.96% w.o.w )

Similar to other markets, the daily indicators like MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR continues to register a bullish signal. The daily ADX and the DMIs have not turned positive yet. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. Like the other indices, the HangSeng index has plenty of work to do and it is best if it will be able to form short term bottoms around 11,000 to 13,000. Support is seen at 13,000 and resistance at 15,500.

Nikkei 225 (8,583, last week 8,577 or +0.07% w.ow)

The daily indicators like MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR continues to register a bullish signal. However, the weekly indicators continue to show weakness. Like other indices, the Nikkei needs to find its short term bottom and preferably it should be at levels 7,500 and 8,300.The daily index has plenty of work cut out and it is best to regain some strong support at levels mentioned above. The index is expected to trade between 8,200 and 9,500.

* Bloomberg: China has on Sunday announced a USD586B stimulus plan to boost its economy and as the world heads toward recession. This amount is approximately 1/5 of China's GDP last year and is very substantial. The earlier forecast in August was USD400b.

* Due to the plan above, crude oil futures jumped over USD3 to USD64 per barrel today.

*G20's current plan for the world: Cut interest rate and start spending!

* Bloomberg: Fitch Downgrades its debt ratings on Russia, South Korea and Mexico. On soverign ratings, countries that have their rating cut are Bulgaria, Hungary, Kazakhstan and Romania. Countries that have their outlook lowered are Malaysia, Chile and South Africa.

* Reuters: Japan's foreign exchange reserve account going down further: Oct end USD977.7b (September end USD995.9b)

* TheStar: Oil and Gas companies still have enough contract in hand. Egs KNM -contract value RM4.6b -duration 2 years, Coastal -RM1.7b-3 years and Tanjong Offshore-RM1.5b-4 years.

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* Berkshire posted its 4th quarterly decline due to 1)hurricanes on insurance operations and 2) battered stock markets on investments.

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* Kenanga's economist pointed out that recessions period in the US from 1950-2004 as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research on average lasted for 10.3 months, the last one in March 2001 ends in November 2001 or 8 months. The longest was 16 months ie July 1981 to November 1982 and November 1973 to March 1975. The shortest was only for 6 months ie January 1980 to July 1980. You do your own assesment on this one in 2008...Any interesting guestimates you like to share?