L.A.M. on Grace Lee's Strait's Times Forum Note About Having Female Only Train Carriages

So I read this gem on the Straits Times Forum by Grace Lee about having female only train carriages. It is very interesting and all until I came across the following point.

"Perhaps the first two carriages can be reserved for females, and the last two for males with the middle two for both sexes. 
Posters of celebrities like Aunty Lucy and Gurmit Singh can be pasted on the train doors for easy identification of the cabins, and staff can help usher passengers during the initial trial period.""

There is only one problem with this suggestion. Auntie Lucy is a man dressed as a woman. If she is used for "easy identification" of the cabins, the first two cabins will be filled with cross-dressing men, the middle two with both genders and the last two with men only. The only reason this will reduce the incidence of outrage of modesty on trains is because less women will take public transport, since they can only occupy 1/3 of the trains.

L.A.M.

Perhaps the first two carriages can be reserved for females, and the last two for males, with the middle two for both sexes.
Posters of celebrities like Aunty Lucy and Gurmit Singh can be pasted on the train doors for easy identification of the cabins, and staff can help usher passengers during the initial trial period.
- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/youth-forum-20140507#sthash.23wLP8MZ.dpuf

Perhaps the first two carriages can be reserved for females, and the last two for males, with the middle two for both sexes.
Posters of celebrities like Aunty Lucy and Gurmit Singh can be pasted on the train doors for easy identification of the cabins, and staff can help usher passengers during the initial trial period.
- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/youth-forum-20140507#sthash.23wLP8MZ.dpuf

Perhaps the first two carriages can be reserved for females, and the last two for males, with the middle two for both sexes.
Posters of celebrities like Aunty Lucy and Gurmit Singh can be pasted on the train doors for easy identification of the cabins, and staff can help usher passengers during the initial trial period.
- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/youth-forum-20140507#sthash.23wLP8MZ.dpuf

L.A.M. on why the Most Expensive City in the World in 2014 is Singapore.

So the Economist Intelligence Unit has named Singapore the World's most expensive city to live in 2014.

This is hardly a surprise because the people in Sunny Singapore have always known that we have some of the most expensive things. Such as:

1) World's most expensive cars

Pictured: Buying a car in Singapore burns a hole in your bonnet.

Singapore comes out tops when it comes to purchasing an automobile. For the uninitiated, a Certificate of Entitlement which costs north of $70K is required before you can purchase a car. Furthermore, there is a registration fee of $140 and additional registration fee that goes up to 180% of the value of the car. On top of that,there is an excise duty of 20% of the the car's open market value. In essence, if you were to purchase a simple Sedan worth $30K, you might end up paying an additional $115K worth of taxes, COE and fees. In short, when you buy a car, you are donating an additional 4 cars to the government.

2) World's most expensive politicians

Pictured: World's most expensive hand wave.

It is an open secret that Singapore has the best paid politicians. Based on this article from Moneysmart, Singapore's Prime Minister is paid 3.5 times more than second place Donald Tsang (2.2million vs 642K per annum). However, the truth is even more skewed. Apart from the Prime Minister and the President, all of the other Ministers in the Cabinet are paid nearly twice as much as Donald Tsang at more than 1.5million per annum. This means that the top 20 highest paid politicians in the world are all from Singapore.

3) World's most "expensive" Social Security Program

In Singapore the Central Provident Fund is a compulsory comprehensive savings plan for working Singaporeans and permanent residents primarily to fund their retirement, healthcare, and housing needs. It is administered by the Central Provident Fund Board, a statutory board under the Ministry of Manpower. The employer has to contribute 16% of the employee's monthly gross salary while the employee contributes 20% of his monthly gross salary.

Based on information from thehearttruths, Singapore not only has the highest contribution rate for our Social Security Program. (See chart above.), but also one of the lowest returns on employee contributions compared to other Social Security programs around the world.

4) World's most expensive place to be an alcoholic

According to rediff, Singapore is the world's most expensive place to drink alcohol. And with the latest increase in alcohol duties announced in Budget 2014 (see. L.A.M. on Budget 2014 and How it Really Affects You), we will see alcohol prices rise even higher.

5) Most "expensive" military

In my other article, L.A.M. on Whether Our Military Spending is Too High, I have shown how Singapore has one of the highest Military Spending in the world on a per capita basis and per sqft basis.

6) 4th most expensive transport infrastructure project



 The Marina Coastal Expressway is the tenth expressway in Singapore. It is Singapore's most expensive expressway and also happens to be the 4th most expensive per km at $680Bn per 1000 km.

7) 5th most expensive place to own a property

According to the Telegraph, at £10565 per sq m, Singapore is the 5th most expensive place to own a property, behind Paris, Hong Kong, London and Monaco.

8 & 9) 11th most expensive place to smoke and 13th most expensive for a "cheap" date

The people at zerohedge have concluded that Singapore is the 11th most expensive city for a smoke and 6th most expensive city to smoke a pack of Marlboro Cigarettes and with the latest increase in tobacco duties announced in Budget 2014 (see. L.A.M. on Budget 2014 and How it Really Affects You), we will see prices rise even higher.

On top of that, we are the 13th most expensive city (9th most expensive country) for a "cheap" date.

With these 8 reasons stated above, it is no surprise why Singapore ended up being the Most Expensive City in the World in 2014.


L.A.M.

P.S. Feel free to leave comments below on what else should be included in this "most expensive" list.

For solutions on how to survive the Most Expensive City in the World, look here.

L.A.M. on this entire Singtel and Whatsapp Sh*t

Today's blogpost is brought to you by Douglas who asked, "I'm confused as hell. John, you willing to break down the entire Whatsapp sh*t down for us? Dude you should blog this madness. Everyone is mixing sh*t up and confusing the entire thing."

                                                           Picture from Yahoo! News

If you haven't already heard, SingTel's chief Chua Sock Khoong called for the right to charge WhatsApp and Skype network usage.

So just to set things straight:

1. Singtel’s chief was speaking at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona where she made the suggestion that regulators need to allow Telcos to charge over-the-top (OTT) services such as Whatsapp and Skype for using their networks because Telcos are losing revenue from SMS services. In Asia Pacific, revenues for SMS is likely to fall from US$45.8bn in 2013 to US$38Bn in 2018. In Singapore, SMS accounts for 5-10% of a telco's revenue.
2. Singtel does NOT intend to charge consumers directly. However whether such charges will trickle down in the form of subscription fees to the consumer is a different story altogether. 
3. The Whatsapp Plan pictured below is not related to this announcement. It was actually introduced a number of months ago and is meant for heavy users of Whatsapp or people without data plans who do not want to incur data charges from using Whatsapp. However, I honestly have no idea why people would pay $6.42 per month for unlimited Whatsapp usage when they can pay $5 for 1GB of data that should be more than enough for Whatsapp, Facebook and whatever app they want.

Picture from Singtel.com

     Douglas also asked whether Singtel can prevent users from accessing Whatsapp and Facebook if these OTT service providers do not pay. 

      Firstly, regulators will need to approve of such charges. Last year, when an Australian carrier, Telstra tried to do this, the  Australian Competition and Consumer Commission ruled it to be anti-competitive. So in short regulators generally frown on this behavior. 
    

      However, if this is allowed by regulators, the truth is that Singtel and other Telcos CAN deny you access to these services. But there are many alternatives available. If they deny you access to Whatsapp, you can use Wechat or Line or whatever new service becomes available. Or you can jump to a different Telco which doesn't deny you access to Whatsapp. If all else fails, just wait a year and a half and you can bypass Telco networks completely by utilising free WIFI from space!

L.A.M.

L.A.M. On Budget 2014 and How it Really Affects You

Some highlights from yesterday's Budget 2014.

On our Finance Minister's head:

• The Good: It's as shiny as ever.
• The Bad: It wasn't shiny enough to keep some of our MPs from sleeping.
• The Impact: Makes a good cover photo for this blogpost.

On our Economy:

• The Good: Singapore's economy grew 4.2% in 2013 despite uncertain global outlook.
• The Bad: This year's growth is forecasted to be slower at 2 - 4%.
• The Impact: That 10% raise you are asking for? You should have asked for it last year.

On our Budget:

• The Good: FY2013 is likely to have a budget surplus of $3.9Bn.
• The Bad: FY 2013's budget surplus is higher than the $2.4 billion surplus in 2012.
• The Impact: We were taxed harder in 2013 compared to 2012. Those bastards!
• The Good: FY2014 expected to have an overall budget deficit of $1.2Bn
• The Impact: That extra tax burden we had last year? We might get back some of it in benefits this year. (Later on, we will learn that most of the benefits go to old people)

On Healthcare:

• The Good: Medishield Benefits will be enhanced.
• The Bad: Medishield Premiums will increase.
• The Impact: Less money in our Medisave because you are expected to live longer. Also healthier people will be subsidising less healthy people even more. Those unhealthy bastards!

On CPF:

• The Good: Employer's CPF contribution will increase 1% from 16% to 17%.
• The Bad: The additional 1% will go into Medisave to pay for increased Medishield Premium.
• The Impact: You know that point about having less Medisave above? Less of a problem now. On the other hand, there is a good chance that prices will go up in general so that employers can pay more CPF

On Property-Cooling Measures:

• The Good: Too soon to start relaxing them.
• The Bad: Too soon to start relaxing them.
• The Impact: Good for buyers, bad for sellers, bad for developers and bad for property agents.

On Education:

• The Good: Lifelong Endowment Fund topped up by $500m to bring it to $4.6Bn. Kindergarten Assistance Scheme for lower income (Income below $4,800). Extended bursaries for higher education to 2/3 of Singaporean housholds.
• The Impact: Good for people seeking education. Bad for illiterates. More competition for jobs among degree holders. Also you will now have to queue even earlier for choice kindergartens. That is until more kindergartens are set up.

On National Productivity:

• The Good: Productivity and Innovation Credit Scheme extended for 3 years. Raised expenditure cap for qualifying activity to 600K from 400K. Support 80% of qualifying costs (capped at $1m) for Infocomm Technology solutions. Subsidised fibre broadplan plans for SMEs and for new in-building infrastructure to facilitate access to broadband.
• The Impact: Good for SMEs. Facebook status updates will be posted faster for SME employees. Also your favourite restaurant is now more likely to replace some of their waiters with iPads.

On Foreign Workers:

• The Good: Increased levy from $600 to $700. Lowered Dependency Ratio Ceilings.
• The Bad: Increased levy from $600 to $700. Lowered Dependency Ratio Ceilings.
• The Impact: Less foreigners, more expensive operations and HR for smaller companies. But companies are encouraged to make use of various productivity schemes to reduce dependence on foreign labour and increase productivity. Also Tharman asked you to change your mindset about using self-checkout counters at supermarkets to reduce reliance on foreign labour.

On the Pioneer Generation:

• The Good: Increase Employer's CPF contribution by an additional 1% for workers aged above 50-55 into Medisave Account. More flexible use of Medisave. Annual Medisave top ups of $100-$200. Higher subsidies for Specialist Outpatient Clinic services. $8bn Pioneer Package fund to be set up.
• The Bad: Workers above 50-55 will also contribute an additional 0.5% into their Ordinary account.
• The Impact: Finally someone remembered to help their Ah Kong and Ah Ma. Some Filial Piety at last!

On Tax Relief:

• The Good: Enhance parent and handicapped parent relief by up to $3000. Handicapped dependent reliefs increased by $2000.
• The Impact: Stay with your parents, get more tax benefits. More benefits if you have handicapped dependents. Good karma begets more tax relief.

On Other Benefits:

• The Good: GST Vouchers to benefit 1.4m Singaporeans. U-Save vouchers to benefit 800K households. 
• The Impact: More money and relief, especially if you are poorer or live in cheaper housing.

On the "Sin" Taxes:

• The Good/Bad: Liquor Tax increased by 25%. Up by $1.20 per litre for Beer, Stout Cider and Perry. And up by $1.75 per litre for other types of liquor
• Tobacco Tax by 10%. Up by 3.52 cents per stick of cigarette.
• Betting Duties increase from 25% to 30%.
• The Impact: Beer, Stout Cider and Perry will cost $1.20 more per liter. Other alcohols will cost $1.75 more per liter. Cigarettes will cost 3.52 cents more per stick. And Gambling will be more expensive/returns will be lower.

L.A.M.

Pictures taken from: http://www.singaporebudget.gov.sg/data/budget_2014/download/FY2014_Budget_in_Brief.pdf

L.A.M. on Whether Singapore is heading for an Iceland style meltdown

Introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2007, the black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.



Let me try to give an example. Let's say that back in 2000, a FAA personnel had the foresight to improve airport security by increasing and enforcing checks on airport travelers. Forcing every traveler to remove his shoes, belt and jacket at the screening area, throwing every LAG into the dustbin, setting protocols preventing pilots from leaving the cabin. Because of the efforts of this FAA personnel, we would still have the World Trade Centre towers today. Osama Bin Laden will still be alive and would have never planned to strike America on 9/11 in such a way because he knew that his terrorists will never get through security. 

Will this FAA personnel be lauded as a hero? The answer is a huge resounding no. Travelers everywhere will curse him. Hundreds of complaints will be filed by people because he has made air travel and inefficient mode of transport. Pilots will complain that they can no longer flirt with that pretty air stewardess during the flight. This FAA personnel will be branded a villain and the world will never know that they evaded a catastrophe because of his efforts.

The other day, I read an article about Singapore heading for an Iceland style meltdown. The reaction to this article was quick and fast. The MAS replied within a day, the article was shared 50,000 times and that probably justified Jesse Columbo's pay cheque. 

Well, there are some very fundamental differences between Singapore, Iceland and the US credit crisis but if I were to pick one very big difference, it is the presence of a black swan event. In the US, Alan Greenspan has constantly refused to acknowledge that near zero rates were creating a credit bubble. Iceland ignored signs that it's debt has grown to Godzilla proportions. When the meltdown came, it was huge, it was tragic, it was unexpected.

Now Singapore is in a slightly different position. We have the benefit of hindsight and MAS has been preparing to cool off a credit bubble. Similarly in China, the PBOC has taken draconian measures to wipe out runaway credit in the world of shadow banking, even allowing it's benchmark rates to increase by 200%. Further South, Bank Indonesia has raised benchmark rates multiple times in 2013. Are the Central Banks aware of a credit bubble? The answer is yes. Are the consumers aware of a credit bubble? A quarter of them, yes. 

With increased awareness and action, will a black swan event occur? The answer is no. Singapore has a strong balance sheet. Singapore banks are poised to withstand huge shocks to the market. Will we have an Iceland style meltdown? Unlikely. But whether we have a property market collapse is up to the consumer.

If enough consumers buy into the theory that property prices have only one direction and that is up, eventually the bubble will burst and property markets will collapse. If enough people are swayed by recent news, make prudent credit decisions, then we will see a dip in the property market and a U shaped recovery. Whatever the majority believes in, the opposite will occur. How's that for a Paradox.

In conclusion, whatever analysis is made, what matters is not whether people believe it's true but whether enough people believe otherwise.



L.A.M.