Inevitable Surprises - Peter Schwartz

Date: 6th August 2009

Time: 5.30pm

Place: National University of Singapore, Bukit Timah Campus, Singapore.

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Introduction from the host:

(From Wikipedia):Schwartz was born in 1946 to Klara and Benjamin Schwartz, Hungarian Jews who had been in concentration camps and were living in a displaced persons camp in Stuttgart, Germany.[1] The family soon moved to Norway, where they lived until he was five. At this point, they emigrated to America, and found a new home in Camden, New Jersey. Schwartz grew up there, attending school with such future stars as Steven Spielberg. He won a National Merit scholarship, and was able to attend Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) on full scholarship. He will serve as RPI's May commencement speaker for the class of 2009.

For more, read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schwartz_(futurist)

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Note: This is written as first person for ease of reading. It is not an ad-verbatim recording of his speech. Any errors and omissions are mine and most likely accidental.

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Thanks for the great introduction. I have done many talks all over the world and this is by far the best introduction of myself that I have received. :)

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Singapore is a special place to me. My first time in Singapore was back in 1967. Today I would like to view the world from the perspectives of different cultures, sub-cultures and age groups, to see if we can catch some signals and early warnings and see if we can paddle faster than water.

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Let me first of all make clear that I do not know what is ahead or around the next bend. What I do is to present you some of my findings and then later come up with some (surprise surprise) scenarios. We have only one hour for the presentation followed by 30 minutes of Q & A, but there is more than one-hour worth of information I would like to relay, so there will be parts of the slides that I'll just fly through and some parts we spend a bit more time on.

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It is said that "He who predicts the future lies even if he knows the truth" or another Chinese saying that goes, "He who lives by the crystal ball, die from broken glass".

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Let's start with the Short Term Shocks.

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The current financial crisis has some structural problems.

We moved from Hedging to Speculation to Ponzi - that's what is described as the Minsky Movement from 2003 to 2007.

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From Wikipedia: A Minsky moment is the point in a credit cycle or business cycle when investors have cash flow problems due to spiraling debt they have incurred in order to finance speculative investments. At this point, a major selloff begins due to the fact that no counterparty can be found to bid at the high asking prices previously quoted, leading to a sudden and precipitous collapse in market clearing asset prices and a sharp drop in market liquidity.

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We have seen a global economy over-leveraged. For a while it worked well. The US borrows and loves consuming more and more, while on the other hand China saves and lend and produces the goods to be consumed by the US. It seems to be a symbiotic relationship and it all works well, but this is beginning to stop with the US unable to consume as they used to. And even if we believe this relationship works, we still have the task to bring it back to work the same way as they used to.

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So question is, "How quickly can it unwind?"

The US debt is 4 times its income. Can we de-leverage?

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The Greenspan fallacy is that bankers have incentive to make the banking system work. But these are perverse incentives and there was also a lack of transparency leading to the securitization of debt that led to the final collapse.

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The Indian and Chinese economies, despite their large populations, have relatively small consumption. So, there'll be modest economic growth for sometime to come. There may be another financial crisis come autumn and then there will be a need for another financial stimulus package.

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Now the world has learned that trade, development and finance must work together.

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In this crisis, we also see the practice of globalisation under challenge, as we see the crisis from some over-valued local assets in America spread across the world rapidly.

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Food shocks:

There will be large price perturbation and huge price movements for food. A prime example would be the price of rice. Prices will be hedged and we may see the same thing as what has happened to oil.

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Demographics:

There has been some moderation over the projections of the world population. It will continue to grow and peak at 8.5 billion people by the year 2050. Many countries are having lesser and lesser babies, even in countries where the Pope has sway, like Italy and Spain, the birth rates have fallen drastically well below natural replacement rates.

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More and more people will move to cities. Half the world population already live in cities in 2009, which incidentally is a good thing for the environment, leaving the countryside and environment less disturbed. This will happened for the industrialised world as well as (surprisingly) for the developing countries, except for the Middle East and the US (due to immigration).

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The future will also see the end to retirement. That isn't surprising if you consider that the concept of retirement is a relatively new idea. Up till the 1930s, there wasn't retirement, pensions...etc. In the near future, people will have longer lives. People of my generation in developed countries may live up to at least 120 years, and this is no exaggeration. Also note that I said, "at least 120 years", which means it is possible to live 150 years, as anti-ageing pills get perfected and more commonly available.

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For those of you who are below 30 years old now, if you do take care of yourself well, your lifespans will be measured in centuries and not decades. *Roaring Laughters* I am not kidding here. You may live till 200 or 300 years old. So choose your spouse carefully, you may end up living that long with them.

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For guys like me in the 60s, the body has taken so much abuse, it wouldn't be able to extend its life like you younger ones can. We can only make it to 120-150 years old.

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[My note: In that case, a 70 year old of the near future will be considered a 'youngster', and his mates may call him out for a game of football or skydive. Just like what many youngters of today do.]

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[Chart shown of violence vs age group composition]

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The chart shows that countries with a younger population have more violent crime. That's how it is, where you have younger men (oh, by the way, it is only the men, women are alright in this respect), you get more violence. This is irrespective of economies.

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Society:

Religion will become an increasingly profound influence in society. Women will become more dominant. There will be more and more women in universities, holding high positions in businesses and governments. Look at the hall today, there are already more women here in law school sitting right here. This will happen everywhere, except the Middle East. They will face a decline in their competitive edge without the participation of their womenfolk, and this might force them to change.

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Climate Change:

There will be more and more extreme weather. If there is a global warming in the weather, that will melt the ice on the Himalayas, that is the source of all major rivers in Asia. Bangladesh - forget it! It'll be gone. 160 million people there will be looking for a new place to live, probably China and India, which they will not be much welcome.

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I just came back from Cambodia, the lake Tonle Sap, will have severe effects on their ecosystem. The Three-Gorge dams in China will have significant effects on the lower reaches of the Mekong river, affecting Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand.

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Singapore may find itself building dikes like the Dutch has very soon, as the sea level rises.

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The problem is that despite the availability of alternative energy sources, the efficient energies are still from coal and therefore they are the bulk of the world energy source. The US and China are now stuck with coal. Which makes the return of nuclear energy as a popular energy source. There could be a shift in the concept of having small nuclear power stations on barges and anchored in the sea. This could well happen in Singapore where land is scarce.

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So we will see the additional energy demands satisfied by nuclear and renewable energies. By the year 2020, all cars in Singapore could be electric.

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Science and Technology:

There will be an increase in new scientific tools and computing power, and the use of artificial intelligence. There will be increase in the discovery of scientific anomalies, there will be an increase in the number of scientists and increase in funding for the sciences.

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Regenerative Medicine:

We will see the shift to the new paradigm of regenerative medicine. We will clone our own kidneys, hearts and other body parts while we are healthy and use them when our original ones stop working properly. There will no longer be the need to buy transplants from others.

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There will also be the trigger to use the natural healing process of the body.

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There will be human enhancements: mechanical, biological and chemical.

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There will be synthesized biology - taking cells and modify them into something else useful for us. Algae will be used to generate electricity. (Already happening now.)

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Geo-economics:

There will be a triumph of knowledge over natural resources. In knowledge, there is no limit to growth. In the digital economy, more and more things will be FREE. New business models will be invented to gather revenue. It'll be more akin to giving you the razor free, but selling you the razor blades.

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Private NGOs and foundations will be increasingly influential over government and national foreign policies. Look at the Gates Foundation, Soros Foundation, Larry Page, Sergy Brin, Pierre Omidyar...etc. The Gates foundation alone wield about USD50billion!!!

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There will be a re-balancing of the power of global finance, as China owns more and more of the US treasury bonds. It'll not be from London or New York, but more of Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Tokyo. It's very simple, the one who pay the bills calls the shots.

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Scenarios:

It will be a knowledge driven world. There will be an increase in interconnectivity and therefore more shock prone. There will be a challenge between "Interests and alliances" (more China) vs "Laws and Institutions" (more American). It will be likely to be in Singapore's interests to ally with the US than China, as it is more structured by laws and institutions. Besides China has a history of dominance in the region and expecting tributes to be paid to them and this is not what you would like to do.

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There will be a continuous need to attract talent. Just like what Singapore is doing.

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Strong authoritarian society will not be sustainable. The penetration of information will undermine them.

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Question time:

Question: Over the risks of Nuclear Power generation.

Reply: We can manage the risks of nuclear power generation but it is more difficult to manage global climate change.

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Question: You mention about the dominance of women in the future and the violence of young men. Putting the two together, will you see the world becoming gentler and kinder with less wars and violence?

Reply: The likes of Golda Meir and Margaret Thatchers of this world are not your gentle sweethearts. *drawing a thunderous laughter from the audience* They are one of the most ferocious warriors the world has ever seen. With more woman leaders, the world will certainly be different, but I don't think that just because of that, there'll be less wars and violence.

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The Futurists - Critical Thinking

Date: 1st July 2009

Place: Hair Affair, The Adelphi, Singapore.

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The Futurists Group, aka Acceleration Aware Singapore, is an informal group that gathers once a week to discuss a pre-selected subject and how that subject will evolve to be in future. It is an open group and anyone can join in. I think it is a group that needs an outlet to express its intellect, quite decadent in a way considering that the time and minds spent here would not add much to save the poor and starving. And I am guilty! :)

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Discussion:

Critical Thinking is the evaluation of competing account of the same situation. How a particular discipline deals with this problem is not necessarily focused on the problem. We need an inter-disciplinary approach and agreement to understand the problem.

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In the PhD offered by the Minerva School, it covers how we can deal with entrepreneurship, media and academia. Such education is not adequate in today's society.

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To analyse media, we need a critical approach. Critical thinking will lead you to possibility thinking. That much of what we observe is relative, depending on our orientation, classification and identification with the issue. There is no right or wrong in critical thinking, but 'stronger' or 'weaker' interpretation of the subject. A stronger interpretation is one that is more comprehensive and covers more elements.

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For instance, Freud's Interpretation of Dreams uses a free association within a given context to eventually derive a latent dream thought, with internally cohesive fragments.

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Me: Actually it is basically like Relational Database Design. :)

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Dominant myths translates society beliefs relative to the society and culture. Dominant myths defines society.

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Objectivity can be seen as a process or a task to understand subjectivity.

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Me: I think 'critical thinking' is 'non-dogmatic thinking'. That means we accept that knowledge and opinions are never 'crystal clear' and are in a permanent state of flux. However, we can achieve a better understanding of the subject matter through critical thinking. Ironically, critical thinking is more stable than dogmatic thinking, for the former embraces a belief that no knowledge or argument is permanently corrrect, whilst dogmas are demolished once contradictions are established.

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With the information ecology, it arises the need for more critical thinking. With the advent of information technology and the Internet, we can get vast volumes of information with ease. However, it is precisely this ease to obtain vast volume of information that we do not have the time to go through them all that we have become more selective. We put out harsher filters and tighter jargons.

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Go back a thousand years, we probably did not need critical thinking. Go back 150 years, and it would probably have been similar. Then, information is scarce and the pace of life is much slower. Just watch some of the older TV series, like West Wing and they were using pagers in their episodes. Nowadays, news get reported first on twitter before the mainstream media catches the events.

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What will happen when we reach 'Singularity'? At that point, we can upload modules of information and skills into our brains. How would 'critical thinking' be then? In such a state, surely critical thinking will leap many orders of magnitude in complexity and sophistication. Then it could be difficult to fathom the thoughts of a technology aided brain, by mine which is unaided. That is, if I am still around then and that if 'Singularity' is achievable.

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My Note:

The Minerva School is embarking on 'inter-disciplinary' approach to their PhD coursework on 'Critical Thinking'. I think that it is a misnomer to accept that there is a naturally occurring thing as a discipline. I would rather treat all issues as one. All issues exists in one universe operating with common generalised principles. So, it would be more fruitful to start with the universe, than to assume that there are these (human-defined) disciplines that ultimately would be empirically fractious on their own.

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Other Futurists posts:

Bucky's Vision of the Future, click here

China, click here

Survivalism, click here

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The Futurists - Bucky's Vision

Date: 24th June 2009

Time: 7.30pm to 10pm

Place: The lecture room next to Hair Affair, The Adelphi Mall, Singapore.

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Buckminster Fuller is the visionary in the 60s of the future. In between, there is a gap. Tonight, we are going to discuss about the difference between the Bucky's vision of the future versus Singularity, which is what is contemporary.

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Steffan believes that 'Singularity' will be achieved in the next 10 years. Singularity is based largely on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the accelerating computing power based on Moore's Law (that processing power will double every 18 months). AI will be developed and progressed to a stage where the human can't keep up with it anymore. It'll be beyond the human scale.

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Joo Hock said that Bucky illustrates this rapid exponential progress in "the chronological rate of acquisition of the basic inventory of cosmic absolutes - the 92 elements" (page 243, Critical Path). In that Bucky plotted a graph of time vs the number of elements discovered. It started with very few, the first one being arsenic in 1250 AD in Italy. The rate of isolation of elements started slowly, then accelerated rapidly around and after 1810AD.

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Also in the transportation sector, the adoption of new modes of transport accelerated - initially with the sail boat, steam ship,... to spaceship.

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Now we have reduced travel time, we require less resources by combining different elements to gather new alloys that give more strength per given weight.

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Bucky questioned if humankind have a function on Earth. Do we have a function?

He discovered that whatever something that happens here, there is a complementary phase somewhere else.

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Then when Einstein discovered E=mc2, he realises this is bringing things back to order. That there is an order, because the mind generalises. So Bucky propounded a set of generalised principles that applies consistently in the universe.

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From there he developed artifacts that illustrates those generalised principles. He then developed the Dymaxion Map, Dymaxion Car, Dymaxion House, the Geodesic Dome, the World Game...etc.

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Bucky asked how we can work for the entire humanity without ecological damages and without disadvantages to anyone.

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Joo Hock: Can AI asks questions instead of answering questions?

Replies: AI is no different from the evolved intelligence of humans. Can machines ask an original question? Bucky thinks not, but there again, may be he changed his mind later because he said, "only the impossible happens".

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The top 10 jobs 20 years ago does not exist today. Similarly, the top 10 jobs in 20 years' time does not exist today. Some of the top jobs of the future could be:

• Reputation Managers
• Consultant, but run by a computerised network (similar to crowd sourcing)

Common to these two jobs will be a term called "Ping Quotient", which is a measure of your responsiveness to other people's requests for engagement, your propensity and ability to reach out to others in a network .

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So what is Bucky's vision for humanity in the future?

Will it be like "Cloud 9" - cities floating in the sky?

Bucky has a vision of the use of technology on every front in our life.

He conceived the idea of tetrahedral cities submerged in the sea.

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He derives the generalised principles from how nature works. From the principles, he created artifacts. For instance, he demostrated that a chain with many links have many degrees of freedom of movements. Then as the links are reduced to 3 links, it stopped having the freedom to move. Then, Bucky realised that a triangle is a basic structure. from a triangle, he proceeded to discover the tetrahedron as the basic structure, and so on.

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So science is putting our experiences in order.

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Bucky's 10 Anticipatory Design Leadership qualities:

1. Think comprehensively
2. Anticipate the future
3. Respect gestation rates
4. Envision the best possible future
5. Be a trimtab
6. Take individual initiative
7. Ask the obvious and "naive" questions
8. Do more with less
9. Seek to reform the environment, not man
10. Solve problems through action

Bucky also spoke about the illusion of 'ownership' - that ultimately, we don't really own anything. Indigenous tribes were perplexed with European colonisers of land ownership. To them, it is impossible to own the land. To them, the land owns them. And so they got cheated by being asked to sign a treaty to give the land away to their colonisers.

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So from an ownership model, we proceed to a service (rental) model. We are here to use something, then put it back.

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A dangling comment:

We have been discussing about 'Good' and 'Evil'. In between, there is 'indifference'. For instance, a cockroach is probably indifferent. :)

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Steffan feels that Bucky is the futurist of his time. Then, humanity needed structures for housing, transportation...etc. There was little said about organising information. Perhaps now Kurtzweil (author of "Singularity") is the futurist of this era, as he works extensively with 'information'.

Bucky's books:

Cosmography: A Posthumous Scenario for the Future of Humanity

From amazon.com: Fuller's last work, nearly finished when he died in 1983, is composed of short sweeps--for Fuller--of afterthought, and some additions, to the main themes of his previous books. As always, Fuller spikes his science with anthropology and sociology, as he did in Critical Path (1981) and Syngergetics I and II (1971-1979), but for hardcore Fuller fans the heart of this book will be the long chapter called "Cosmic Conceptioning." This section includes a note Fuller wrote to himself, at his wife's hospital bed, on "spheric experiences" of the structure of gases--a raw example of Fuller's special "geometry of thinking." (It is dated 1983 and signed "with thanks to God, the eternal sum of all truths.") "History of Structure," on the other hand, reads like a guest-lecture speech, summarizing the future world millenium according to Fuller. While obtuse wording, such as "omninteraccelerating cosmic concept" can seem to mock his brilliant insights into the grand geometry of structures, topology, chemistry, metallurgy and, perhaps, society, nearly a decade after his death, Fuller is still ahead of the parade.

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Critical Path

From amazon.co.uk: Critical Path is R. Buckminster Fuller's masterwork - the summing up of a lifetime's thought and concern - as urgent and relevant as it was upon its first publication over 20 years ago. Critical Path details how humanity found itself in its current situation - at the limits of the planet's natural resources and facing political, economic, environmental, and ethical crises. Fuller's analysis has been proven correct in many areas since then and his options for the survival of mankind are as compelling as ever. Critical Path is an essential text for any student of humanity.

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The Whole Earth Catalog

From Wikipedia: The Whole Earth Catalog was an American counterculture catalog that granted "Access to Tools" published by Stewart Brand between 1968 and 1972, and occasionally thereafter, until 1998. Apple Inc. founder and entrepreneur Steve Jobs has described the Catalog as the conceptual forerunner of the World Wide Web.

Andrew Kirk in Counterculture Green notes that the Whole Earth Catalog was preceded by the "Whole Earth Truck Store". This store was conceived of as the "first phase" of his Whole Earth idea and was "an alternative library" and an "abbreviated version of Brand's earlier hope to tour the country with educational fairs. The truck was a store but was also a lending library and mobile microeducation fair." It was created in his 1963 Dodge Truck. In 1968, Brand and his wife Lois went "on a commune road trip" with the truck. The "Truck Store" finally settled in its permanent location in Menlo Park, California.

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Brand's intent with the catalog was to provide education and "access to tools" so a reader could "find his own inspiration, shape his own environment, and share his adventure with whoever is interested." The Catalog's development and marketing were driven by an energetic group of founders, primarily Stewart Brand, whose family was also involved with the project. Its outsize pages measured 11x14 inches (28x36 cm). Later editions were more than an inch thick. The early editions were published by the Portola Institute, headed by Richard Raymond. In 1972, the catalog won the National Book Award, the first time a catalog had ever won such an award.

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Brand's publishing efforts were suffused with an awareness of the importance of ecology, both as a field of study and as an influence upon the future of humankind and emerging human awareness.

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The catalogs disseminated many ideas now associated with the 1960s and 1970s, particularly those of the counterculture and the environmental movements. Later editions and related publications edited by Brand popularized many innovative ideas during the 1970s–1990s. Read more

An Autobiographical Monologue/Scenario

From geni.org

An excellent primer written in plain English.

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Documented and edited by Robert Snyder. Amiable prophet of the future, "the planet's friendly genius," R. Buckminster Fuller is, at 84, the best-known living American thinker. (Order)

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Architect, author, designer, cosmogonist, scientist, inventor, philosopher, and not the least, astronaut aboard the "beautiful little spaceship Earth." The torrent of ideas and inventions that flow from his active brain have widened our vision of man and nature and reshaped our view of the universe.

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Based on Robert Snyder's films The World of Buckminster Fuller and Primer of the Universe, Buckminster Fuller: An Autobiographical Monologue/Scenario make skillful use of stills and text from the films as well as from Fuller family photographs and letters and the Fuller archives. Snyder has succeeded in capturing in the camera's lens the flesh and blood figure of the man beyond the myth, "warts and all." In this book, Bucky speaks for himself.

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An Anthology for the New Millenium

From Amazon.com: In 1927 R. Buckminster Fuller stood on the shore of Lake Michigan contemplating suicide. Suddenly he asked himself, "Could I use myself as a scientific `guinea pig'... on behalf of all humanity?" Fuller decided at that moment to "make the world work for one hundred percent of humanity, in the shortest possible time, through spontaneous cooperation, without ecological offense or the disadvantage of anyone." From this auspicious beginning, Fuller quickly rose to fame as one of the 20th century's most brilliant inventors, architects and "poets of technology." Believing that "mankind has the capability through proper planning and use of natural resources to forever house himself," he devised the geodesic dome--a model of which now looms over Disney's Epcot Center--an architectural wonder designed to conserve both space and energy. Fuller's foresight that advances in transportation and communication would make the world a smaller place culturally led him to famously describe the global village as "Spaceship Earth." He also introduced the world to the now commonplace idea of synergy. In order to acquaint a new generation with Fuller, his former architectural partner, Zung, gathers selections from 20 of Fuller's 23 writings on topics ranging from education and environment to engineering and the Lord's Prayer. Admirers of Fuller--such as actress Valerie Harper, author Arthur C. Clarke and entrepreneur Steve Forbes--introduce each selection. Zung's anthology traces the development of Fuller's intellectual life and provides an excellent introduction for a new generation to the life and work of this brilliant thinker. Read more

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Your Private Sky:

From Amazon.com: Buckminster Fuller's talents bridged architecture, engineering, and industrial design, and his interest in prefabricated units, constructed from industrial materials, marked his designs as among the most inventive of the 20th century. In their economy and conservation of energy, his works far exceeded anything envisioned by International Style architects of his time. This volume, the result of an exhibition held at five European design museums, consists primarily of archival documentation from the Buckminster Fuller Institute. Each chapter examines a design, beginning with a brief descriptive paragraph and including substantial excerpts from Fuller's lectures, manuscripts, and publications in addition to sketches, photographs, patent application drawings, and engineering drawings. The result is engaging, visually stunning, and highly informative if at times also confusing, overwrought, and breathless. Regrettably, there is some ambiguity as to which caption describes which illustration. Nevertheless, this book well complements Inventions: The Patented Works of R. Buckminster Fuller (St. Martin's, 1983). For architecture and design collections.

-Paul Glassman, New York Sch. of Interior Design Lib.

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Topic for next week: "Critical Thinking".

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Vacuum State - Coming Up

Sorry I have been busy with many activities and hadn't had the time to post here as much as I wanted.

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Here is a glimpse of what is coming up:

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The Futurist

• Buckminster Fuller's view of the future
• Critical Thinking
• Artificial Intelligence Drives

Bucky Group

• Bucky Basics - the generalised principles, the artifacts, Bucky's products like the Dymaxion car, Dymaxion house, ...etc.

The Power of Numbers

• More about my recent experience reading for people: the accuracy and the need for coaching and encouragement

Neurofeedback

• About using the brain's own waves to train and improve itself.

The last 100 visitors come from...

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23 SINGAPORE

21 -

18 INDIA

13 UNITED STATES

5 UNITED KINGDOM

4 MALAYSIA

4 NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

3 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

2 EGYPT

1 PAKISTAN

1 CANADA

1 LITHUANIA

1 IRELAND

1 NORWAY

1 GERMANY

1 AUSTRALIA

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Thanks for visiting Vacuum State. Do feel free to leave your comment, suggestions or criticisms.

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The Futurists - China

Date: 10 June 2009

Time: 7.30pm

Place: Smith Street, Chinatown, Singapore

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Global Sounds Cafe or the Fireplace Cafe they call it now, was once again closed and we have to 'take it to the streets' and settle for a table along Smith Street downstairs.

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The Futurist Group (Acceleration Aware Group) is an informal group that meets once a week to discuss about the future based on a given theme. We are bankers, students, gold investors, entrepreneurs, webmasters, writers, photographers, teachers, technologists,...etc. If you are interested in what the future may bring you, how it'll affect you or want to enjoy the intellectual exchange of liberal views of the future, this is the place. Anyone can join in the meetings. There is no membership fees to pay. Enjoy!

Politics

This is the 10th Anniversary of the Tian An Men Incident in 1989. Stefan was there when it happened and experienced it first hand.

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How will the future of China look like?

Will it be a Soaring Dragon? or a Crouched Tiger?

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China is an ideologically bankrupt nation in that it is no longer a communist economy. They hold the nation together by using the 'we are all Chinese' slogan. It is an illusion as not all Chinese nationals are Han Chinese. In order to keep the country together peacefully, China will have to maintain a certain growth rate to avoid a revolution. It also has to maintain an illusion that such a growth is trickling down to the common people.

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In recent years, the growth and the policies to maintain such economic growth have been desirable.

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If Chinese leaders fail to deliver the economic growth promised, there can be despotism and chaos. It is difficult to conceive that there can be a loose federation of Chinese states, just like in the European Union.

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One of our participants feel that the breakup of China is unlikely and we cannot compare it to the 1920s when the Chinese military only had 4 aircraft fighters and 8 tanks.

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So far, the Chinese government has advocated the best technological changes that are purely functional to their survival, like the WTO, the Internet and any technology that improves their labour productivity. They are implements that give them incremental advantages over their neighbours.

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We agree that China and the US are both about the same in their intent as big countries to dominate the world, but the Chinese are more honest. This is so at the moment. It is to be seen if they will behave the same once they become more influential in world affairs.

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At this point, we noticed that our Chinese (from China) participant is feeling a little uneasy over our liberal speculations of the perilous breakup of her country. I guess there are some topics that will remain very sensitive to discuss with any Chinese for a long time to come. They are:

1. The war past with Japan

2. Tibet

3. 100 years of shame

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Our Chinese friend (participant) feels that it is still better for China to operate with centralised control as then resources can be shared, even though there are cultural and religious sensitivities in Tibet and Xinjiang.

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Economics

Recently in Guangzhou, two-thirds of the factories had shutdown. 20 million people had to return to the villages. When the export model economy collapse, there could be a breakdown. However, this is very unlikely. The Chinese government now subsidises production of household consumer goods so that they can be made affordable to rural Chinese folks, thus stimulating the demand.

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One of our participants brought a paper presented by Mingli, an ex-political prisoner in China. He predicts that China will progress as US and Europe will stagnate.

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Demographics:

There are two glaring demographic quirks in China:

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1. That due to female infanticide, there will be a shortfall of women. 30% more men than women in the countryside. How are they going to manage it? The communist party tried to address this shortfall, but has failed. Perhaps, those men that can afford will marry foreigners and those who can't may practise polyandry. Polyandry has inherent advantages of keeping the integrity of farm plots (without fragmenting them by inheritance).

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2. That there will be a generation of single child spoilt brats, more notably known as 'Little Emperors'.

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Will these points above lead to collapse?

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Books

From Amazon.com :

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How often can you peek behind the curtains of one of the most secretive governments in the world? Prisoner of the State is the first book to give readers a front row seat to the secret inner workings of China's government. It is the story of Premier Zhao Ziyang, the man who brought liberal change to that nation and who, at the height of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, tried to stop the massacre and was dethroned for his efforts.

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When China's army moved in, killing hundreds of students and other demonstrators, Zhao was placed under house arrest at his home on a quiet alley in Beijing. China's most promising change agent had been disgraced, along with the policies he stood for. The premier spent the last sixteen years of his life, up until his death in 2005, in seclusion. An occasional detail about his life would slip out: reports of a golf excursion, a photo of his aging visage, a leaked letter to China's leaders. But China scholars often lamented that Zhao never had his final say... more

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Excerpts from the book:

Part 1, Chapter 4: 'The Crackdown' (Pp. 33-34)

On the night of June 3rd, while sitting in the courtyard with my family, I heard intense gunfire. A tragedy to shock the world had not been averted, and was happening after all.

I prepared the above written material three years after the June Fourth tragedy. Many years have now passed since this tragedy. Of the activists involved in this incident, except for the few who escaped abroad, most were arrested, sentenced, and repeatedly interrogated. The truth must have been determined by now. Certainly the following three questions should have been answered by now.

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First, it was determined then that the student movement was “a planned conspiracy” of anti-Party, anti-socialist elements with leadership. So now we must ask, who were these leaders? What was the plan? What was the conspiracy? What evidence exists to support this? It was also said that there were “black hands” within the Party. Then who were they?... more

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The meeting ended here.

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Points to ponder:

• So, do you think China will be a Soaring Dragon or a Crouched Tiger?
• Do you think it'll surpass the United States as the World Superpower?
• Or will it face political turbulence and breakup as its export strategy is disrupted by the current financial crisis and economic slowdown?
• Is the current surging interests of many people to learn the Chinese language, Chinese art Chinese medicine and Chinese cuisine a sign of the resurgence of China as an economic power?

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Do leave your comments.

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Next meeting:

Topic: Buckminster Fuller's View of the Future.

Date: 24 June 2009, Wed

Time: 7.30pm

Place: Hair Affair, B1-10, Adelphi Mall (opposite Funan IT mall, nearest station City Hall), Singapoare

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Other past Futurist meeting posts:

• Survivalism
• Life Extension
• Pakistan
• Artificial Intelligence

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The Futurists - Survivalism

The meeting started with a discussion about the economy among some new members, but it was soon made known that we have a topic each evening, and this time, it is about "Survivalism". Survivalism is about personal existence and co-existence with others.

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Here is Stefan's survival kit: tablets, water bottles, thermal blankets...etc. Oh yes, even a condom! I was told it is to be used to carry water.

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This is the book introduced this evening:

From Amazon.com

In the waning days of the American empire, we find ourselves mired in political crisis, with our foreign policy coming under sharp criticism and our economy in steep decline. These trends mirror the experience of the Soviet Union in the early 1980s. Reinventing Collapse examines the circumstances of the demise of the Soviet superpower and offers clear insights into how we might prepare for coming events.

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In brief, we discussed about:

• A friend of one of us who built himself a bunker to survive a nuclear attack in Queensbury, England. This person had food supplies, medicine, water and guns to protect himself.

• Year 2000 - There were lots of preparations. Old equipment non-Year200-compliant were replaced; backup generators were installed; satellite communications dish were installed;...etc. Then when the time came, nothing happened! Consultants and IT companies made lots of money and IT stock prices plummeted by April 2000.

• The experience of a severe snow storm in England. The electricity was disrupted and supplies in shops were getting scarce. Yet, people were fairly relaxed about it. Instead they come out and talked to the neighbours and mingle. Something they don't do very much when conditions were normal. We think that people were calm then, because there was expectations that the situation will be restored to normalcy. Otherwise there will be gradual collapse of order.

• SARS - It became a bit scary at one stage when everyone in the airplane puts on a mask. One of the members called back to his step-mum and she asked if he has SARS and that it may be better that he not return, just in case. That was quite sobering, as it shows that even family members are ready to desert him, when come to the crunch.

• H1N1 - When it started, the Singapore hospitals were on Orange alert, but then, it stood down to Yellow alert. Then, after the first case occurred in Singapore, it remained Yellow alert and had not escalated to Orange or Red. We think this could be that they have understood the disease better and hence are more confident of managing it.

• Last year, the steep rise in oil prices and the reduction of state subsidies caused some riots in Indonesia.

Questions:

In the event of a disaster, does the poor countries collapse first?

Are poorer countries, more used to hardships, more resilient?

Are urban areas more adversely affected than the countryside?

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The Futurists 8d - Life Extension

13 May 2009

This week we revisited about "Life Extension" as the last time, some of us were not around in the meeting. This meeting is not very well recorded as I was not feeling very well.

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Some people are against Life Extension and Immortality. But when you ask, "Who wants to die?" Then, you get a different reaction.

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How do we die?

When we stop breathing? or when the heart stops? or when the brain stops?

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In evolutionary history, we die from predators before we get into a discrepit state. May be there are evolutionary disadvantage of living a long life.

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But what if we succeed in cloning? Let's say if I clone you, then which one is the real you? Is it the original or the clone? Or let's say, if I clone you and I kill the original, are you still alive? 

At this point, one of the participant replied: "If you kill me, I'll kill you!"

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That threw most of us off guard and off-logic, as obviously the preceeding supposition is for the purpose of hypothesis. It seems that some people cannot cope up very well with the concept of hypothesis; and therefore sidetracked from the main question of "Which one is the real you? You you or the clone? Not "if you kill me, I'll kill you". This is comical!!!!! :)

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So who is the real you?

What is 'self'?

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Is SELF = CONSCIOUSNESS + MEMORY ?

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Ten years from now we will achieve Singularity (that means computers can reach human levels of thinking and in some cases like calculations, supersede human abilities, more powerfully so) - claimed Stefan. Kit thinks not and both of them made a bet. The loser pays a steak dinner. 

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But what made Stefan thinks it'll be so soon?

For one adoption rates for technologies like the Internet and mobile phones are happening at a much faster rate than that of radio in the past. Now, there are several technologies that changes your life so much, such as:

RSS, podcast, ipod, youtube, internet radio, peer-to-peer technologies like bitorrent...etc.

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MY POST MORTEM:

As communications technologies progressed, the quality of conversations deteriorates. So will technological advances necesarily prolong our lives or improve its quality? 

The Futurists 10 - Pakistan

This is an unusual post for this blog, as it touches on the politics and military landscape of Pakistan, which is not the theme of Vacuum State. This post is here as a chronicle of a Futurist group meeting. None of us in the group are politicians, political analysts, foreign correspondent in Pakistan, or members from the military top brass. Our knowledge of the war in the tribal areas in Pakistan is merely based on the mainstream media.

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6th May 2009

Book:

From the MIT Press

The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not.

The authors construct a provocative theory on the selection of leaders and present specific formal models from which their central claims can be deduced. They show how political leaders allocate resources and how institutions for selecting leaders create incentives for leaders to pursue good and bad public policy. They also extend the model to explain the consequences of war on political survival. Throughout the book, they provide illustrations from history, ranging from ancient Sparta to Vichy France, and test the model against statistics gathered from cross-national data. The authors explain the political intuition underlying their theory in nontechnical language, reserving formal proofs for chapter appendixes. They conclude by presenting policy prescriptions based on what has been demonstrated theoretically and empirically.

Discussion:

Why is a group like this discussing about "Pakistan"?

Reply: This is because the government there has almost abdicated the tribal area Swat only about 100 kms away from Islamabad, to the control of the Talebans. This is a grave concern as Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Will it disrupt the development of technology that serves humanity, or even cause an annihilation of civilisation?

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It may not be a concern as the Pakistani army has a strength of about 900,000 and it will not allow further fragmentation of the country. Question is whether the Taliban can takeover any place outside their bases? There is also local interests other than religious fanaticism. Logically, it serves the army to tolerate some amount of chaos to justify its own existence.

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Is the news exaggerated to serve US interests to send troops into Pakistan?

Probably not, as the Pakistani army has  a better chance (with local knowledge) than the US to take on the local rebels.

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Why are there no bio-warfare so far in any countries?

Because it is difficult to weaponise bacterial and viruses. Rebel groups like the Taleban will find it difficult to develop them as they will need laboratories and in-depth knowledge and expertise.

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The Futurists 9 - Artificial Intelligence

Along Chinatown eating roasted chestnuts, sipping tea and discussing about what the future may bring, under the warm tropical sky

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22 April 2009

While waiting for Stefan, I had a short discussion with Kit. Personally, I don't believe that machines will one day have their own consciousness.

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Kit said it depends on what we mean by 'consciousness'. Does a cockroach have intelligence? Or does a rat have intelligence? While a cockroach may appear 'intelligent', it may be merely operating mechanically in its movements - even aspects like when they shy away from the light. 

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This behaviour can be easily simulated by a mechanical toy car powered by light sensors on each side of the car. That is, when the left side is brighter, the left sensor generates more power to power the left wheels, making them spin faster than the right wheels, which will result in the toy car turning slightly right as if shunning the light. This happens mechanically without the need for central processing. 

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To make toy car or creature move towards the light, just connect the left sensor to the right wheels. Then, when there is light on the left, the left sensor will power the right wheels more, making the toy car move leftwards as if it loves the light. Again this happens mechanically without the need for central processing.

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Kit said that someone managed to simulate the flight formation of geese and found that while the behaviour appears sophisticated, they only conform to four behavioural rules. This hardly constitute consciousness.

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Studies on the human brain shows that it doesn't only respond to sensors, but also feed back information and signals to itself, suggesting that the brain is aware of its own existence. Could that be 'consciousness'?

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Ok, 'consciousness' aside. What is 'artificial intelligence' then?

Kit opine that till today, there are not many instances of real artificial intelligence.

"How about the microwave oven with an intelligence chip? It can learn your usage habits and therefore we don't need to press those buttons to instruct it", I asked.

"But is that 'intelligence'? Those are but very specialised roles. What we mean by AI should be a 'generalised intelligence', not a very limited and specific intelligence," Kit replied.

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Stefan then arrived,  and together, with his books:

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From Amazon:

This book presents sequential decision theory from a novel algorithmic information theory perspective. While the former is suited for active agents in known environment, the latter is suited for passive prediction in unknown environment. The book introduces these two well-known but very different ideas and removes the limitations by unifying them to one parameter-free theory of an optimal reinforcement learning agent embedded in an arbitrary unknown environment. Most AI problems can easily be formulated within this theory, which reduces the conceptual problems to pure computational problems. Considered problem classes include sequence prediction, strategic games, function minimization, reinforcement and supervised learning. The discussion includes formal definitions of intelligence order relations, the horizon problem and relations to other approaches to AI. One intention of this book is to excite a broader AI audience about abstract algorithmic information theory concepts, and conversely to inform theorists about exciting applications to AI. more

From Lulu Marketplace

A thesis about theoretical models of super intelligent machines. Includes Hutter's AIXI model, Solomonoff induction, the Universal Intelligence Measure, and the relationship between Goedel incompleteness and artificial intelligence algorithms.

From Library Thing

Essays which state the fundamentals of Jung's psychological system: "On the Psychology of the Unconscious" and "The Relations Between the Ego and the Unconscious," with their original versions in an appendix.

From EBookee

This is the first book on current research on artificial general intelligence (AGI), work explicitly focused on engineering general intelligence �C autonomous, self-reflective, self-improving, commonsensical intelligence. Each author explains a specific aspect of AGI in detail in each chapter, while also investigating the common themes in the work of diverse groups, and posing the big, open questions in this vital area. 

This book will be of interest to researchers and students who require a coherent treatment of AGI and the relationships between AI and related fields such as physics, philosophy, neuroscience, linguistics, psychology, biology, sociology, anthropology and engineering. more

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The Futurists 8c - Life Extension

Another talk by Dr Aubrey De Grey about 'Life Extension'. This is a similar talk to the previous one, but more details spoken.

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Basically, he spoke about repairing the damages in the cells due to entropy (ageing). If repairs start when the subject is younger, say in the 30s, there are better chance of getting 'younger'.

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If you are reading this on facebook and cannot see the video, click here

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To read the previous posts, click here

The Futurists 8b - Life Extension

I found these two fabulous TED talks:

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David Bolinsky's "Fantastic voyage inside a cell"

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Alan Russell's "Why can't we grow new body parts?"

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Read also: 

The Futurists 8a - Life Extension

The Futurists - Life Extension

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The Futurists 8a - Life Extension

In the previous Futurist post, Aubrey de Grey spoke about life extension by repairing our bodies at cellular level.

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Last weekend, I chanced upon two products that is said to operate at the cellular level. This is a rare commercial post in this blog, but please bear with me, as they seem to be interesting.

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1. Metta

This is what it says in its website:

"A healthy body begins with healthy cells. METTA Herbal Health Tonic utilizes the healing powers of Mother Nature and helps to repair the body at a cellular level. Being a 'whole body tonic,' METTA ensures healthy cell division and repair which will help restore and maintain balance throughout the whole body system... more "

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I have registered online and got myself a free bottle to try. Here are my results:

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On the first day, after sipping 15ml of the tonic, I felt a sudden rush of fluid through my body and a tension around the neck, then I felt sleepy and went to bed. 

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The next day, I felt this abundance of energy and (strangely) enthusiasm for everything. In the evening, I again took another 15ml. This time, I felt as if I have just done a marathon, as my legs felt that way! Again, I felt sleepy and went to bed.

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Next day, again I felt this rush of energy in me. This has now gone on for four days. I will keep you posted on the results as I progress.

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I spoke to the founder of Metta and he told me the sudden tension/fatigue is due to the detoxification of the cells when I consume the tonic. If my body is cleaner, then I won't have the fatigue. It is amazing to me how though cells exist separately to each other, the effect of the tonic was felt instantly when consumed. It is akin to the instantaneous pain of a needle prick on the finger tip,  although the event had to be communicated to the brain and back.

If you want  a free bottle, click here.

[Declaration: I will benefit financially if you join. Sorry, this happens to be network marketing stuff. :) But actually without the usual nastiness, as there is no membership fees, no minimum sale targets, no need to keep (buy) stock...etc.  Yet you may make money from it if you work on it.]

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2. Emtech

Its website says, "Emtech uses High electric, Magnetic, Heat and Far Infrared energy source to influence the body energy balance.  It is a holistic approach to stimulate the mind and body's own healing response... more."

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I tried the one my family bought, on my feet. I felt little bubbles of energy circulating in my feet and my shanks. It was a relaxing feeling, the same as in acupuncture. I didn't feel any changes after that, but my mother who uses it an hour daily has got rid of her back pains and bowel problems. My sister uses it daily and lost 3.5kg in 2 months.

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I am not a member of this one, but I can get you a free 15 trial voucher  on the machine if you are residing in Singapore. I will not make any money from this one.