North Korea successfully launches the Malligyong-1 reconnaissance satellite

image: KCNA

 

On 21 November 2023 at 13:42:28 UTC, according to the State News Agency KCNA, North Korea succesfully launched its new Malligyong-1 military reconnaissance satellite to orbit. The launch was from Sohae platform 2 using a (also new) Chollima-1 rocket. 

This was the third launch attempt. Two earlier attempts, on May 31 (see this blogpost) and August 23 (see this blogpost) failed to reach orbit due to malfunctions of respectively the second and third Chollima stages.

Yesterday's sucessful launch happened 1h 18m before the window from the published Navigational Warning HYDROPAC 3667/23 (see earlier blogpost here) opened, hence taking everybody by surprise.

KCNA reports that orbit insertion was at 13:54:13 UTC.

The US Military Space Tracking network CSpOC has published orbits for two objects resulting from this launch, confirming the North Korean claim of a successful orbit insertion. 

Object A (nr 58400, 2023-179A) is likely the payload, Malligyong-1, and is in a 97.43 degree inclined, 512 x 493 km sun-synchronous orbit. 

Object B (nr 58401, 2023-179B) is likely the Chollima-1 upper stage and is in a 97.41 degree inclined, 512 x 467 km orbit.

The orbit of the payload is a Sun-synchronous orbit with a repeating ground track. It results in daily transits over Pyongyang around 10:00 and 22:00 local time, with a ground track that repeats itself each five days. This is consistent with a function as an optical reconnaissance satellite.

 

I analysed the orbital trajectory in relation to the positions of the hazard zones from Navigational Warning HYDROPAC 3667/23. 

Earlier this year, in connection to the first launch attempt, there was a discussion whether: 

(1) a multiple dogleg was involved, or;

(2) a direct orbit insertion with post-separation restart and dogleg manoeuvering of the second stage, or;

(3) a dogleg manoeuvre of the second stage pre-separation with insertion into a 78-degree inclined non-SSO orbit. 

The reason for the discussion, was that the splashdown area for stage 2 east of the Philippines, was out of line with the splashdown areas for stage one and the fairings. The direction marked by the splashdown areas for the first stage and fairings would actually match a direct SSO insertion. A detailed discussion of the issue is in this previous blogpost on the May launch attempt.

We now have an answer, based on the position of the orbit at orbit insertion: a double dogleg by both the second and third stages was involved, as illustrated below:

click map to enlarge

After separation from the first stage, stage two made a dogleg eastward. After separation from the second stage, stage three then made another dogleg westward, and next brought the payload to the orbit insertion point, the stage itself also attaining orbit in that process (where it is now space debris).

(note: the manoeuvers were likely a bit less 'sharp' than in the illustration above)

The resulting orbit is basically what would have been achieved with a direct insertion along the original launch azimuth, but with the RAAN shifted by 4.2 degrees. The double dog-leg was probably chosen to avoid the second stage falling too close to the Philippines or (in case it underperformed) on China or Taiwan.

[update] Some interesting footage has appeared on the internet from a South Korean all-sky meteor camera operated by Yonsei University. It shows the first and second stage, with the first stage blowing up after separation of the second stage. This could well have been deliberate (to avoid intact hardware recovery by South Korea: or because of range safety), but can also have been accidental (see for example how the Starship stage 1 accidentally blew up just a few days earlier). [end]

Here are a few photo's of the launch, from the North Korean State News Agency KCNA:

"Thar She Goes! No Kablooih this time!"

North Korea to try a third time to launch its Chollima-1 rocket and Malligyong-1 satellite coming days [UPDATED]

click map to enlarge

UPDATE 21 Nov 2023:  

North Korea launched the satellite on 21 Nov 13:42 GMT (1h 18m before opening of the window from the Navigational Warnings!) and claims the launch was successful.

A Navigational Warning, HYDROPAC 3667/23, has appeared today that suggests that North Korea will do a third attempt to launch their new military reconnaisance satellite Malligyong-1 on their new Chollima-1 space launch vehicle the coming days, perhaps as early as to morrow 21 November.

They tried twice before: on May 31 (see this blogpost) and on August 23 (see this blogpost). During the first attempt on May 31 the second stage failed; during the second attempt on August 23, the third stage self-destructed. Maybe they will get it right this time.

The launch window runs from November 21 15:00 UTC to November 30 15:00 UTC, based on the Navigational Warning.

The locations of the three hazard areas from the Navigational Warning are similar to those for the May and August launch attempts: Areas A and B (fairings and first stage splashdown) are southwest of Sohae in the direction towards China and Taiwan, and Area C, the second stage splash-down area, is east of the Philippines. See the map above. 

As discussed before in the context of the May launch, the location of Area C suggests that a dog-leg by the second stage is involved: either before third stage release, or after.

This is the text of the Navigational Warning:

201932Z NOV 23
HYDROPAC 3667/23(91,92,94).
EAST CHINA SEA.
PHILIPPINE SEA.
YELLOW SEA.
CHINA.
DNC 11, DNC 23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING 
   211500Z TO 301500Z NOV IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 36-02.44N 123-59.18E, 36-06.94N 123-33.11E,
      35-24.52N 123-22.78E, 35-20.02N 123-48.62E.
   B. 33-58.97N 123-40.07E, 34-05.90N 123-01.99E,
      33-23.47N 122-51.88E, 33-16.54N 123-29.66E.
   C. 15-01.70N 129-24.05E, 14-54.17N 128-40.10E,
      11-19.30N 129-10.84E, 11-26.81N 129-54.13E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 301600Z NOV 23.

During the previous two launches, Japan and South Korea acted ridiculously panicky, sounding sirens and telling civilians to take shelter. This is however a pre-announced space launch, not an unannounced ballistic missile launch, on a trajectory that avoids flying over significant pieces of land surface. Sounding sirens and telling people  to take shelter, is an over-reaction. Hopefully they will act less panicky this time, as this kind of panic serves no purpose.

A new North Korean satellite launch attempt upcoming [UPDATED]

Click map to enlarge

UPDATE (24 Aug 2023)

The launch took place around 18:50 UTC (so at nighttime this time) on August 23. The payload failed to reach orbit.

According to the North Korean State News Agency KCNA, the first and second stages worked nominally (the second stage failed during the May launch), but there was an "error in the emergency blasting system during the third-stage flight".

This sounds like the self-destruct mechanism was triggered by mistake.

KCNA reports that a third launch attempt will be conducted in October. Apparently, they have a lot of spare satellites and rockets in store...

[end of update]

North Korea has issued a Navigational Warning for a new satellite launch attempt from Sohae. The launch window runs from 23 August 15:00 UTC to 30 August 15:00 UTC.

The three hazard areas from HYDROPAC 2699/23 (blue in the map above)  are similar to those for the failed June launch attempt. They are different from the 2016 KMS-4 launch (shown in red in the map above, for comparison)

(more on the failed June attempt in a previous post here, which also discusses the two possible launch trajectories I have depicted in the map).

The text of Navigational Warning HYDROPAC 2699/23:

211953Z AUG 23
HYDROPAC 2699/23(91,92,94).
PHILIPPINE SEA.
YELLOW SEA.
CHINA.
DNC 11, DNC 23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   231500Z TO 301500Z AUG IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 36-06.94N 123-33.11E, 35-24.52N 123-22.78E,
      35-20.02N 123-48.62E, 36-02.44N 123-59.18E.
   B. 34-05.90N 123-01.99E, 33-23.47N 122-51.88E,
      33-16.54N 123-29.66E, 33-58.97N 123-40.07E.
   C. 14-54.17N 128-40.10E, 11-19.30N 129-10.84E,
      11-26.81N 129-54.13E, 15-01.70N 129-24.05E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 301600Z AUG 23.

Introducing a new web resource: Launchtower

Before new launches, I frequently publish orbital element (TLE) estimates that can help satellite observers plan observations of the payload and/or associated rocket stage directly after launch.

Untill now, I published these pre-launch estimated TLE's on the SeeSat-L Mailing List and occasionally also on this blog. And I will keep doing that: but I realized that it would perhaps be good to have a central website for these pre-flight TLE's.

So I introduce to you: Launchtower (http://launchtower.langbroek.org).

The TLE estimates in question are based on public information about the launch site, launch date and launch time, and (if made public) the orbital altitude and orbital inclination aimed for.

For classified launches (where this information usually is not available), educated guesses are made based on amongst others information gleaned from NOTAM's and Navigational Warnings. These provide information on launch time windows, and the orbital inclination aimed for, which can often be deduced from the launch azimuth, which in turn can be deduced from the locations of the launch hazard areas and upper stage deorbit areas found in Navigational Warnings.

The website will provide TLE estimates for launches that are "of interest". The criteria for what comprises "of interest" are basically:  those launches that are of interest to me.

Generally speaking, these will be: classified launches; human spaceflight; and launches that overfly Europe on the initial revolution.

TLE's can be used to plot a sky track for your location, using predictive software like for example HeavenSat.

 
UPDATE:

On request, I have added a plain-text file URL as well, to which you can point software that can (stupidly) only load TLE's from plain text files on a web-adres. Link is on the main Launchtower page.

Introducing TLE from Proxy

A simple way to estimate orbital elements for an upcoming launch, is to use elements from a previous, similar launch as a proxy.

For example, for a newly to be launched SpaceX DRAGON cargo spacecraft to the ISS launching from Cape Canaveral pad 39A, you can use a previous DRAGON launch from Cape Canaveral and then modify the elements to the new launch date and launch time. The method is described here by Ted Molczan in a Seesat-L mailinglist post from June 2002.

Basically, the method takes the elset from the previous launch and adjusts the epoch and RAAN values (all else being kept equal) based on the time difference between the original launch and the new launch.

To aid in this and make it as simple as a few buttonclicks, I have written TLE from Proxy. The program runs under the Windows .NET framework, and can be downloaded on my website.

Using the program is very simple, involving these five simple steps:

1.  Obtain a TLE for a previous similar launch from Space-Track;
2.  Paste line 1 and line 2 of this elset into the input box;
3.  Fill in the date and time (in UT) of that launch;
4.  Fill in the date and time (UT) of the new launch;
5.  Press the button.

A new TLE will now be generated.

Note that in order for this to work, the launch must be from the same launch site, towards the same launch azimuth, and with a same launch-to-destination scenario.