It's final: Joe Biden 306, Donald Trump 232
Biden wins Georgia.
Trump wins North Carolina.
Nate Cohn
50.8K posts
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
- One interesting twist in New Hampshire is that the candidate who receive the most votes is considered the winner
- A record-shattering first day of early voting in the Georgia runoff: 168k vote in-person yesterday, up from 136k on day one of in-person early voting for the general election
- Biden now leads in states worth 306 electoral votes. Here's how the map will probably finish
- Biden has taken the lead in Michigan, according to the AP Along with AZ, NV and WI, he now leads in states worth 270 electoral votes--the number needed to win
- Biden now leads by a full percentage point in Pennsylvania, as absentee and provisional ballots continue to add his tallies
- The path for Republicans to win the Senate is getting... awfully thin, as Democrats post strong showings in mail ballots tonight in Arizona and Nevada.
- If you stop the count, right now, Biden wins with 270 electoral votes--with leads in AZ/NV, plus the states where he's already the projected winner.STOP THE COUNT!
- Fetterman on track to win in Pennsylvania, with a greater than 95% chance to win, according to our estimates (this is not a projection)
- New Clark County ballots expand Biden's lead in Nevada. I am not aware of a reason to believe that Trump can overcome his deficit in the state
- With Catherine Cortez Masto consistently winning the mail ballots in Nevada by a two-to-one margin, Democrats might just be one large Washoe County mail ballot drop away from holding the Senate
- At this point, Biden's path to over 300 electoral votes is a lot, lot clearer than the president's path to 270.
- So a majority of House Republicans and AGs asked the Supreme Court to nullify the result of the presidential election--and bring about a constitutional crisis with untold risks to the country--in a case that the Court dismissed in a couple of paragraphs
- It'll be a while until we get voter file data on this election, but I think there's a chance this was the largest partisan turnout advantage in a high turnout election that Democrats have enjoyed as long as I've followed election data
