Raging Capital Ventures (@RagingVentures) / X

Raging Capital Ventures

5,555 posts

Raging Capital Ventures

@RagingVentures

Commentary on investing, politics, tech, and start-ups. Not Financial Advice. Sign-up for free quarterly newsletter: ragingcapitalventures.com

Princeton, NJ

ragingcapitalventures.com

Joined December 2020

Pinned
Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jun 18
Excited to share details on our 5th Annual Ideas & Networking Conference in NYC on Oct 1st, 2026. Speakers include Militia Capital's David Orr @orrdavid, Cambria Investment's Meb Faber @MebFaber, Robert Robotti of Robotti & Co @BobRobotti, and Michael Gibson @William_Blake of
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jan 18, 2023
Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB reports earnings tomorrow Investors have rightfully been fixated on $SIVB's large exposure to the stressed venture world, with the stock down a lot. However, dig just a little deeper, and you will find a much bigger set of problems at $SIVB... 1/10
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jan 18, 2023
Replying to @RagingVentures
$SIVB's mgmt has tried to blame its challenges on its venture-related exposure. However, it is hard to hide from the fact that mgmt bought the TOP of the bond market. Tomorrow's earnings and this year should be interesting. Caveat Emptor! (Disclosure: I am short) 10/10
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jan 18, 2023
Replying to @RagingVentures
$SIVB's big problems are with its HTM portfolio The bank basically increased its security portfolio by 700% at a generational TOP in the bond market, buying $88 b of mostly 10+ year mortgages with an average yield of just 1.63% at Sept 30th. Oops! 4/10
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Feb 21, 2025
ChatGPT Plus increased my investment research productivity by 20-30%. ChatGPT Pro, which I’m still learning to use, has quickly led to a 100%+ step function improvement in productivity. Financial modeling and expert/qualitative research calls aside, ChatGPT Pro is already
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jan 18, 2023
Replying to @RagingVentures
$SIVB's HTM securities had mark-to-market losses as of Q3 of $15.9 b...compared to just $11.5 b of tangible common equity!! Luckily, regulators do not force $SIVB to mark HTM securities to market. But the bank would be functionally underwater if it were liquidated today. 5/10
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Mar 10, 2023
Spoke to a # of well-connected SV insiders: the black cars are lined up outside of $SIVB HQ tonight. Due to huge deposit outflows & credit line draws, they think $SIVB will either announce a big recap w/a Berkshire-like white night or someone like JPM will own it by Monday.
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jan 18, 2023
Replying to @RagingVentures
The risk for $SIVB is that deposit outflows accelerate at such a pace that it is forced to either raise equity capital and/or sell down its HTM securities portfolio, thus realizing substantial losses. You can bet that $SIVB is praying for a Fed pivot! 8/10
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Mar 11, 2023
The game is afoot. If you’re a hedge fund analyst, you’re spending the weekend trying to figure out who else is at risk. Prime targets: Banks with significant losses in their “held-to-maturity” portfolios & high levels of uninsured deposits. And, of course, $COIN & crypto
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jan 14, 2023
Investment banker told me Friday that the current cost of debt for mid-market private equity deals is around SOFR+750 bps, or just under 12%. This assumes roughly 50% equity down.
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jan 18, 2023
Replying to @RagingVentures
$SIVB rode the VC boom like a champ Deposits grew from $61 b at Q4 '19 to $189 b at Q4 '21. Interest rates were so low, these deposits were like free money (~25 bps avg. cost). 2/10
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Mar 10, 2023
Replying to @therealkn42
No hedges!! That became a lost art over the last decade of Federal Reserve rate repression…
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jan 18, 2023
Replying to @RagingVentures
$SIVB used these inflows to: - Increase loans 100% to $66 b - Go hog wild with its "held-to-maturity" (HTM) securities portfolio, ramping its mostly Agency mortgage holdings from $13.5 b at Q4 '19 to $99 b at Q4 '21. 3/10
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Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
Jan 18, 2023
Replying to @RagingVentures
On top of this, due to the Fed's interest rate hikes, $SIVB is seeing accelerating deposit outflows (-6.5% ytd), a mix shift away from non-interest accounts, and skyrocketing interest costs (money markets now yield 4%). Also, $SIVB's venture clients are burning cash! 6/10
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