I received the Florida October book-closing voter files last night and was finally able to import it into my database today and run some reports on it tonight. Some interesting changes in the Florida electorate this year...
1/9
StPete Polls
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StPete Polls
@StPetePolls
Joined September 2012
- Sample for this poll is R+8%, which is WAY off for Florida. Taking that into consideration, a tie in this poll is bad news for Trump..@atlas_inteloll finds Florida tied, @realDonaldTrump winning Hispanic vote, via @JacobOgles floridapolitics.com/archives/37926… #FlaPol
- There appears to have been a HUGE inactive voter shift in Pinellas County in the last few weeks, the "Active Voter" numbers fell from 677,932 4 weeks ago to 614,667 today, a drop of over 9%. I've never seen a drop that large in such a short time period.Republicans hold 25,000 voter registration advantage in Pinellas Reporting by @PeterSchorschFL flapol.com/3Lhx9oe #FlaPol
- Replying to @PeterSchorschFLHere's another wrinkle in the story, North Shore Elementary is not her zoned elementary school, her kids are zoned for Woodlawn Elementary,
- Replying to @getupgetfree and @PpollingNumbersFlorida is a closed-primary state, only 36% of 18-29 age group are registered DEMs, and they have a very low turnout rate in primaries. The respondent shares we used in this poll are proportional to how these age groups have voted in the last two party primaries.
- Replying to @Fla_Pol @whitfox and 2 othersSome more notes on this poll: - #FL13 is an R+8 district by voter registration - This poll has an R+9 sample with R+9 weighting - We had a higher-than-usual response rate to this poll - The raw anonymized respondent data is available here: stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePo…
- Replying to @StPetePollsAs for next month's election, the registration numbers don't really tell us much about turnout. The number of new voters is actually smaller than it was 4 years ago, but from what we all see in the mail-vote and early-vote, this is already a very different election from 2016. 9/9
- Replying to @StPetePollsFocusing specifically on Hispanic newly registered voters this year, they registered as DEM/REP/IND 31%/27%/42%. Almost 48% are in the Miami area and over 40% of them are under the age of 30. 7/9
- That's actually very close to what our #Pinellas poll released today said turnout on election day would look like,
This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more - Replying to @StPetePolls(8/8)FL new-voter group, geographic region breakdown: Pensacola = 4% Panama City = 2% Tallahassee = 1% Jacksonville = 8% Gainesville = 1% Orlando = 23% Tampa = 27% West Palm Beach = 10% Fort Myers = 9% Miami = 15%
- In bellwether Pinellas County, Democrats just took the lead in the number of ballots cast so far in the 2018 General Election, votepinellas.com/Election-Infor…
- Replying to @StPetePollsThe Republican gains this year were offset by a larger-than-normal removal of Republican voters from the voter rolls. R's now make up 35.3% of all registered voters in Florida, but in 2020 so far, the voters removed from the voter rolls were 40.9% Republicans. 4/9
- Given that this small-sample poll oversampled white men, and @AndrewGillum is still ahead, it's a very good result for him.
- Replying to @StPetePollsOn the Democratic side, they did manage to stop the consistent downward slide in their registered voter share this year, raising their share of registered voters in the state for the first time in 8 years, even though it was only a 0.03% increase. 5/9
