The Airbnb collapse is real.
Revenues are down nearly 50% in cities like Phoenix and Austin.
Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hit hardest by the revenue collapse.
Nick Gerli
9,893 posts
Nick Gerli
@nickgerli1
CEO of Reventure App.
Home price forecasts and valuation rates for every ZIP code in the U.S.
- Mortgage rates back to 7%. Meaning that the cost to buy a house in America is now approaching $2,700/month when including mortgage, tax, insurance, and maintenance. Meanwhile, cost to rent is $1,850. Biggest gap we've ever seen. Something has to break.
- I don't think people understand what's happening in housing market right now. Florida now has 177,00 listings. Highest level on record. Entire Northeast U.S. has 79,000 listings. Lowest level on record. People are leaving Florida. And moving back north. A structural trend that
- Wall Street Investors are beginning to sell their houses. This listing in Phoenix was bought by a private equity fund in 2022 at the peak of the bubble. Now they're listing at an 11% loss. It's just the start.
- The housing market has never been this unaffordable in U.S. history. With inflation-adjusted home prices setting a record over the last three years. We're now in the biggest housing bubble of all-time, and the only period that came close was 2006, before the big crash. Many
- Mortgage applications are down 34% from pre-pandemic levels. And is even worse than 2008.
- WARNING: the Money Supply is officially contracting. 📉 This has only happened 4 previous times in last 150 years. Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates followed. 😬
- This is scary. 😬 KB Homes, a large home builder, just reported a 68% CANCEL RATE. Meaning that over 2/3 of Homebuyers walked away from their contracts in the quarter. Leaving KB Homes with a massive pile-up of inventory. Last year the Cancel Rate was only 13%.
- Big boy price cut in Florida. Original List: $525,000 Current Price: $295,000 42% reduction. Back to 2015 Zestimate levels. Watch out as these listings make their way into comps as year goes on. Especially in markets with bloated inventory levels...
- A massive housing bubble has developed, and is about to pop, in the South. The number of new homes for sale in the Southern Region (FL, GA, TN, TX, etc.) has spiked up to nearly 300,000. This is the highest level of all-time. Even higher than the previous bubble peak in August
- Mortgage Applications to buy a house just collapsed to an index level of 147.📉 That's the lowest level of buyer demand in 28 YEARS. Lower than anything we saw in the 2008 Crash. Down 41% from last year. (Source: Mortgage Bankers Association)
- A friendly reminder that we are in the biggest housing bubble of all-time. Inflation-adjusted home prices today are almost 100% higher than the long-term, 130-year average. Only 2x in US history where this has ever happened: 2006 and right now. Note how from 1890 to 2000,
- Florida investor bought for $550k in 2022. Just sold it for $391k. 28% loss in 3 years. Market turning down fast.
- 😬Big Problems ahead for Real Estate Investors. The 6-Month US Treasury now yields basically the same as Buying & Renting Out a House in America (aka Cap Rate). Translation: big Real Estate Investor selloff coming. Especially among Wall Street owners. 📉
