On Tuesday night, the Astros came away with a big win against the Dodgers, but they suffered an even bigger loss, as an ankle injury in batting practice resulted in Carlos Correa being pulled before the game. The exact extent of the injury was not initially known, with the shortstop/third baseman scheduled to visit a specialist today, but Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported late this morning that Correa will have surgery and miss the rest of the 2026 season:
Astros source: Carlos Correa will have surgery on his left ankle and will be out for the season. A devastating injury blow for the Astros.
This didn’t seem like the sort of mild sprain that’s healed by a bag of ice and a weekend spent watching old episodes of Top Chef with your foot elevated. Indeed, the initial returns Tuesday night were already pretty concerning, with McTaggart reporting that “the expectation was that Correa would be sidelined indefinitely.” Correa’s injury is to his left ankle, not his right, which appears to have been the source of worry when both the Mets and Giants put the kibosh on signing him in 2022 following team physicals. Read the rest of this entry »
You’ve probably heard of Davis Martin, or someone like him. Martin is a 6-foot-2 right-handed pitcher out of Texas Tech. But he’s not Tyler Davis, a 6-foot-2 right-hander who played at Sam Houston State. Davis is Martin’s teammate. Neither is he Corbin Martin, a 6-foot-2 right-hander out of Texas A&M. Corbin Martin plays for the other Chicago team.
Davis Martin is also not Caleb Kilian, his college teammate, who stands 6-foot-4 and plays for the Giants. Kilian played at Texas Tech with 6-foot-2 right-hander Clayton Beeter, now of the Nationals, and 6-foot-1 right-hander Caleb Freeman. Freeman and Davis Martin both pitched for the White Sox last year, but they’re not the same guy. Chris Martin is easier to remember: Texan and right-handed, but too tall and too old. Austin Davis is a lefty. Austin Martin is a position player. OK, I think we’re out of the woods now. Read the rest of this entry »
To start things off, here’s a riddle for you. Which of these two batting lines would you prefer?
Mystery Batters, Selected Stats
Batter
BB%
K%
Barrel%
HardHit%
SwStr%
GB/FB
LD%
Batter A
12.9%
30.9%
18.3%
50.9%
14.2%
0.88
19.1%
Batter B
22.2%
32.7%
18.8%
59.4%
13.3%
0.89
23.2%
They’re similar, no doubt. I’m pretty sure you’d pick Batter B, though. He walks a lot more and hits more line drives. He also hits the ball hard more frequently while swinging and missing less frequently. Batter A is Nick Kurtz’s spectacular 2025 season (.290/.383/.619, 170 wRC+). Batter B? Nick Kurtz’s slow start to 2026 (.244/.412/.412, 130 wRC+). Huh?
Kurtz’s early-season power outage is hard to understand. His process statistics all look phenomenal. His xwOBA is up year over year. He’s already posted a higher maximum exit velocity, and his average and 90th-percentile exit velocities are both in the top five in baseball. But they don’t play the game in a Statcast spreadsheet, and Kurtz’s results have dipped meaningfully. In 2025, he hit a homer every 13 plate appearances. This year, that number is above 30. His ISO is down from .329 to .168. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley discuss the late John Sterling, fan affection for local broadcasters, and whether any broadcast institutions don’t inspire such attachment, then banter about Anthony Volpe’s demotion, Tarik Skubal’s elbow injury, the Mets’ decision to stand by Carlos Mendoza, dramatically different results in back-to-back Reds-Pirates games, Riley O’Brien’s success, Nick Kurtz, Roy Cullenbine, and prolific walk-drawers with unimpressive power, whether framing and challenging skills are correlated for catchers, and a Baseball Savant-based guessing game, plus follow-ups on Mexico City’s elevation and Dalton Rushing.
I don’t think many would quibble with me too harshly if I characterized the last two seasons for the Atlanta Braves as dreary disappointments. In 2024, the Braves were generally believed to challenge the Dodgers for the title of best team in baseball. This held true for about six weeks, but for the rest of the season, they suffered myriad injuries and played .500 ball, barely hanging onto a wild card spot before quickly being dispatched by the Padres. Going into 2025 with the hope for a healthier, bounce-back season, nothing of the sort happened. Atlanta finished at 76-86, the franchise’s first losing season since 2017. Expectations coming into this season were more muted. While the Braves were expected to be competitive (the FanGraphs projections were more optimistic than ZiPS), the excitement was certainly dampened compared to the previous two years.
So far in 2026, the Braves have defied the pundits and computers, dominating the NL East and sporting the best record in baseball, at 25-11. Their 8 1/2-game lead in the NL East isn’t an insurmountable one, but it’s quite impressive for this point in the season. No other division leader has more than a two-game lead right now! As crucially, the two teams expected to be Atlanta’s fiercest competition, the Phillies and Mets, are a bit farther behind, at 9 1/2 and 11 1/2 games back, respectively. Naturally, the success of the Braves and the struggles of Philadelphia and New York have changed how the final standings project to shake out.
ZiPS Median Projected Standings – NL East
Team
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
80th
20th
Atlanta Braves
93
69
—
.574
68.4%
17.2%
85.6%
9.7%
100.8
85.7
Philadelphia Phillies
85
77
8
.525
20.8%
31.9%
52.7%
4.8%
92.3
78.0
New York Mets
79
83
14
.488
5.8%
17.5%
23.3%
1.3%
85.6
71.9
Miami Marlins
76
86
17
.469
4.8%
14.9%
19.6%
0.6%
84.6
70.0
Washington Nationals
67
95
26
.414
0.2%
0.9%
1.1%
0.0%
73.5
59.5
That’s quite a sea change from the start of the season. Of course, Atlanta isn’t projected to keep playing this well the rest of the way. We’re only a little over a month into the season, and we should expect some regression from the Braves as they play more games.
But just because things will normalize some does not mean that nothing has changed. I’m not convinced that Dominic Smith is a 157 wRC+ guy, or that Martín Pérez is the first person in history to figure out the secret to maintaining a sub-.200 BABIP, but there are other things about this team that I’m quite ready to believe. Matt Olson has had very big seasons before, and when healthy, Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Ozzie Albies isn’t going to hit .330 for the season, but he did amass the second-most WAR as a second baseman from 2018 to 2023, behind only Jose Altuve, so we have seen enough from him in the past to believe this is a true comeback campaign rather than an early-season mirage.
To get a better idea of what’s real and what’s fake, here are the ZiPS projections for the hitters currently on Atlanta’s Depth Charts roster, compared to their preseason projections.
ZiPS Projections – Braves Hitters Now vs. Preseason
Even being skeptical of a few players, there are a lot more advancers than decliners here. Of all major league hitters currently projected to get plate appearances over the rest of the season, the Braves have nine of the top 100, more than you would expect from random chance. Only three players — Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mike Yastrzemski — have taken big hits, but they are still projected to be real contributors, though I’m a bit worried about Riley personally.
How does that compare to other teams? Using the rest-of-season Depth Charts playing time projections and applying both the up-to-date projections and the preseason ones to that projected playing time, we can get an idea of which teams have had something change and which teams have not.
ZiPS Projections – Team Hitters Now vs. Preseason
Name
Rest-of-Season wRC+
Preseason wRC+
Diff
Braves
112.2
108.9
3.3
Astros
107.5
105.3
2.1
Cardinals
100.9
99.3
1.6
Yankees
115.8
114.4
1.4
Cubs
111.4
110.1
1.3
Guardians
102.3
101.1
1.2
Tigers
106.0
105.0
1.0
Pirates
103.8
103.2
0.6
Marlins
100.1
99.5
0.6
White Sox
98.2
97.7
0.4
Nationals
94.9
94.6
0.3
Rays
99.3
99.2
0.1
Diamondbacks
102.6
102.5
0.1
Dodgers
120.3
120.3
0.1
Brewers
103.9
103.9
0.0
Mariners
112.2
112.9
-0.7
Angels
97.9
98.5
-0.7
Rockies
91.5
92.3
-0.7
Royals
101.9
102.7
-0.8
Blue Jays
106.2
107.1
-0.9
Orioles
112.9
113.9
-0.9
Twins
104.6
105.9
-1.3
Athletics
108.6
110.1
-1.5
Reds
99.8
101.5
-1.8
Rangers
105.4
107.3
-1.9
Phillies
106.8
108.7
-1.9
Padres
107.5
109.7
-2.2
Red Sox
101.2
103.5
-2.3
Giants
104.3
107.3
-3.0
Mets
110.3
114.4
-4.0
Atlanta’s offensive projection has improved more than that of any other team, so it isn’t just smoke and mirrors producing these results. At the risk of veering off topic, the 14-22 Astros’ having the second-most improved offensive projection is quite an awkward data point for the team’s struggling pitching staff. Conversely, even if you’re generally confident that the Phillies and Mets (and Red Sox) will right the ship, the projections are less optimistic than they were in March.
Let’s repeat the exercise with the pitchers:
ZiPS Projections – Braves Pitchers Now vs. Preseason
ZiPS is confident that Atlanta’s offensive improvements are legitimate, but it’s considerably less so when it comes to the pitching staff. I’ve already made a crack about Pérez, but ZiPS is also skeptical about Bryce Elder’s strides. Overall, it still sees the rotation as risky, though it is more bullish on several of the team’s relievers.
(For those curious, the most improved hitter and pitcher in baseball, from a projection standpoint, is Chase DeLauter and Mason Miller, respectively.)
ZiPS Projections – Team Pitchers Now vs. Preseason
Team
Rest-of-Season ERA+
Preseason ERA+
Diff
Padres
102.9
100.3
2.5
Yankees
104.3
101.9
2.4
Phillies
115.5
113.3
2.2
Brewers
105.5
103.3
2.2
Dodgers
111.4
109.6
1.8
Blue Jays
109.2
107.4
1.8
Mets
105.0
103.3
1.7
Marlins
101.3
99.8
1.5
Angels
95.2
94.0
1.3
White Sox
91.6
90.4
1.2
Pirates
111.5
110.5
1.1
Rockies
96.5
95.5
1.0
Tigers
107.8
107.0
0.8
Cubs
100.2
99.6
0.5
Mariners
104.7
104.5
0.1
Rangers
95.5
95.4
0.0
Twins
102.7
102.8
-0.2
Braves
106.9
107.2
-0.4
Giants
105.2
105.6
-0.4
Guardians
109.4
109.9
-0.5
Reds
96.3
96.8
-0.5
Diamondbacks
106.8
107.4
-0.6
Orioles
101.6
102.3
-0.7
Astros
104.3
105.3
-1.0
Athletics
94.2
95.2
-1.0
Rays
105.1
106.3
-1.2
Cardinals
97.7
99.0
-1.4
Nationals
89.8
91.1
-1.4
Royals
101.0
102.6
-1.6
Red Sox
108.5
110.6
-2.1
It’s kind of funny to see the Phillies so high up on this list, but they have allowed a .349 BABIP over 35 games, a freakishly high number that can’t possibly be sustained. One can see why the Yankees and Padres have been so strong in the early going, though their success is a story for another day.
Is the NL East race actually over? The projections and Betteridge’s law of headlines say no. But it is true that the Braves have flipped the script. It’s not as over for the Mets or Phillies as the vibes indicate, but if they are going to mount a comeback, they better start fairly soon. If not, they’ll quickly run out of calendar.
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of May! Happy Cinco de Mayo to those celebrating, and a belated happy Star Wars Day if that’s your thing.
Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I wrote about Ildemaro Vargas’ unlikely hitting streak. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ildemaro-vargas-is-suddenly-a-hitting-mach…), and last night I went up to Yankee Stadium to do some reporting to supplement a tribute to longtime Yankees radio play-by-play broadcaster John Sterling, who passed away at age 87. That will be up tomorrow.
Jay Jaffe: and one final programming note: next Tuesday evening I’ll be accompanying MLB.com’s Michael Clair to Word Bookstores in Williamsburg to moderate a discussion of his book on the Czech Republic’s national baseball team and its unlikely rise: https://bsky.app/profile/michaelclair.bsky.social/post/3ml4k6v4zqs2u
Cody Scanlan/The Register-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Jonathon Long has logged a shiny 137 wRC+ since he was selected in the ninth round of the 2023 draft out of Long Beach State. How bright of a future he has is a question not easily answered. Ranked 17th on our recently released 2026 Cubs Top Prospects list with a 40 FV, the 24-year-old first baseman has a profile that is promising, yet in some ways concerning.
Last season’s numbers were particularly strong. Playing at Triple-A Iowa, Long slashed a robust .305/404/.479 with 20 home runs and a 131 wRC+ over 607 plate appearances, which led to his being honored as the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year. His right-handed bat hasn’t been nearly as productive in the current campaign — a .294/.369/.405 slash line with a pair of round-trippers and a 101 wRC+ over 143 plate appearances — but he nonetheless remains a threat to opposing pitchers. Moreover, he has begun to warm up. Over his last nine games with Iowa, Long is 14-for-40 (.350).
A hyperextended elbow caused the Orange, California native to miss time in spring training, a period that coincided with my annual visit to Cactus League camps. Intrigued by his stat sheet and scouting reports alike, I asked Long if he considers himself more of a power hitter, or more of a contact hitter.
“I’m probably a little bit of both,” replied Long, whose 20.3% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate this season are slightly worse than last year’s respective marks of 19.7% and 13.2%. “I don’t like striking out, and I have pretty good exit-velocity numbers. If you combine those, you kind of get a high contact rate and a power hitter.”
Our recent prospect report on Long, put together by Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan, is largely in accord with that self-assessment. Bullish in agreement, it nevertheless came with a caveat: Read the rest of this entry »
There are no “good” injuries in baseball. Losing a player to the IL is never a fun time. But there’s still a relative hierarchy – not every injury is an equally big bummer. On Monday, we got one of those big bummers. The Tigers placed Tarik Skubal, the two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner, on the injured list. He’s slated to undergo surgery to remove loose bodies in his pitching elbow, as Evan Woodbery of MLive first reported.
Skubal had dealt with occasional pains in his arm throughout the season, as The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen reported. In his start last Wednesday, Skubal grimaced and grabbed his elbow in the seventh inning, sending a bevy of concerned Tigers staffers to the mound. He waved them off and struck out the side, but when his arm didn’t recover as much as expected in the aftermath of that start, the team had imaging done, revealing the need for surgery. This injury could alter the balance of power in the AL Central this year. More than that, it could change the trajectory of Skubal’s career. So let’s walk through the implications for the team, league, and player as we try to make sense of this unfortunate bit of news. Read the rest of this entry »
The best team in baseball will be without its biggest star for a few weeks.
The Braves placed Ronald Acuña Jr. on the injured list Sunday with a strained left hamstring. Acuña exited Saturday’s game after pulling up in considerable pain while running out a groundout. Manager Walt Weisstold reporters that imaging revealed a Grade 1 strain, the least severe grade. According to MLB.com, Weiss said:
“It’s not going to be just a couple days. It’s gonna be more than that, so we need to put him on the IL, and hopefully it’ll be sooner than later. No idea with these soft tissue injuries how long they’re gonna take, but I think the silver lining is that the MRI showed it wasn’t too serious.”
While many players return from Grade 1 hamstring strains in just a couple weeks, or even following the 10-day minimum, this is an injury that can linger and delay a return.
This is, obviously, less than ideal for the Braves. Acuña is their best player and was projected in the preseason as the ninth-best position player in baseball with 5.4 WAR, according to our Depth Charts. Though his performance hasn’t been spectacular thus far, with a 111 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances, his .381 xwOBA and 12.2% barrel rate — along with strong strikeout and walk rates — suggest he hasn’t missed a beat this year, coming off his bounce-back 2025 season.
Of course, last year was a comeback campaign because Acuña missed most 2024 (and the early part of 2025) after tearing his ACL. He also missed chunks of 2021 and 2022 with a torn ACL in his other knee. In 2018, he missed about a month with a mild ACL sprain. That means Acuña’s hamstring strain is his fourth lower body injury requiring IL time in his career. Read the rest of this entry »
Sponsor Us on Patreon
Give a Gift Subscription
Effectively Wild Subreddit
Effectively Wild Wiki
Apple Podcasts Feed
Spotify Feed
YouTube Playlist
Facebook Group
Bluesky Account
Twitter Account
Get Our Merch!
Jay Jaffe
