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Patrick Ruffini
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Patrick Ruffini

@PatrickRuffini
Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”
Virginia
patrickruffini.com
Joined March 2007
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    Patrick Ruffini
    @PatrickRuffini
    Oct 19, 2025
    Coming November 4: The paperback edition of Party of the People, with a new epilogue on the 2024 election.
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    Patrick Ruffini
    @PatrickRuffini
    1h
    It got 3 of the 7 main battlegrounds wrong. Not very impressive.
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    Natalie Winters
    @nataliegwinters
    Aug 21
    EXCLUSIVE: Chinese Institutions Are Building AI Models Of American Voters—And Testing Political Messages On Them. Fudan used 171 MILLION X posts to create a million-account “voter pool.” A government-linked team tested a campaign message on synthetic Pennsylvania voters. 🧵
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    Patrick Ruffini
    @PatrickRuffini
    4h
    August polls have been too Democratic for the last SIX cycles.
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    Patrick Ruffini
    @PatrickRuffini
    Aug 21
    So cooked.
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    Patrick Ruffini
    @PatrickRuffini
    Aug 20
    Appreciate this response! One thing Nate and others have responded with is that midterms are more accurate. That’s true—at the end. But at this point in previous cycles the polls were quite biased.
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    Nate Silver
    @NateSilver538
    Aug 20
    Can’t call this official Late Night Nate content because we recently published a story at 4 in the morning, but here are a bunch of thoughts about the @PatrickRuffini hypothesis that polls overrate Democrats in the summer.

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