eip-8363 works backwards from a chosen policy endpoint:
"consensus issuance should be fully cancelled when staked eth reaches 50%."
but the 50% endpoint is not derived from a security optimum, an estimated staking supply curve, or a model of validator composition. it is
in the words of eip-8363 co-author pa7x1: “we can set the stake cap wherever we may need it.”
his original analysis calls the parameter choices “heuristic” and says “there is no hard science behind them.”
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