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Lisan al Gaib

@scaling01
lead them to paradise LisanBench: lisanbench.com Impressum & Datenschutz: lisanbench.com/legal
scaling01.substack.com
Joined August 2024
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  • Pinned
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    Lisan al Gaib
    @scaling01
    Jan 1
    My predictions for 2026: Coding and Mathematics AGI - METR 50% time horizons above 24 hours - my mean estimate is 30.8 hours, 2 day time horizons possible within frontier labs when accounting for 60 day lag - if 2025 was the year of agents, then 2026 will be the year of
  • user avatar
    Lisan al Gaib
    @scaling01
    6h
    I obviously don't know if my post played any role in Elons decision, I doubt it, although the timing and his comment on my post make it seem plausible I also don't know whether my "Codex is slow comment" changed anything about this updates timeline or whether my ChatGPT Plus
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    Lisan al Gaib
    @scaling01
    Aug 14
    shout-out to my homie Elon listening to me this was probably the only way to have a chance of catching up to OpenAI and Anthropic
  • user avatar
    Lisan al Gaib
    @scaling01
    13h
    Mythos Preview is larger than Mythos 5 and Fable (and likely close to 10T) for several reasons: - it's pricing was $125/million output tokens (5X Opus and 2.5x Fable. and for Opus we know it's around 1.5T-2T, implying Mythos should be around 7.5-10T) - Mythos Preview is
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    Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
    @teortaxesTex
    14h
    1) DeepSeek did *not* “shit the bed” 2) serious time: anon *why* do you believe in the existence of “10T models” or “Mythos teacher”? What convinced you? We see a 16BA hitting 80% on ARC-AGI-2. *do you actually think* 1-2 evals where Mythos-Preview > Mythos are enough evidence?
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    Lisan al Gaib
    @scaling01
    15h
    they say a simple post can move mountains
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    Token Gremlin
    @TokenGremlin
    18h
    OpenAI is about to ship a huge performance upgrade for extremely long ChatGPT and Codex conversations next week. In an internal test on a massive 741-turn, 231 MB conversation: → 27.6s average load time → 1.66s → 94% faster → 41% less overall memory growth → 894 requests
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    Lisan al Gaib
    @scaling01
    21h
    I would've liked to see some acceleration here I think I'm more confident after this that OpenAI will have the best model again after their scale-up