Forecasts
Our global economic and financial forecasts
Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.
Growth (GDP)
Last updated: 9 July
| QoQ% (avg) | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 1Q28F | 2Q28F | 3Q28F | 4Q28F | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Japan | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| France | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| UK | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Italy | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Canada | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Australia | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Eurozone | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Austria | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Spain | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | - |
| Netherlands | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Belgium | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Greece | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Portugal | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| Switzerland | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| YoY% (avg) | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 1Q28F | 2Q28F | 3Q28F | 4Q28F | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F |
| Bulgaria | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | - |
| Croatia | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | - |
| Czech Republic | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Hungary | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Poland | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Romania | -1.9 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Turkey | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Serbia | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | - |
| Azerbaijan | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| Kazakhstan | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Russia | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Uzbekistan | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Ukraine | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| China | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| India | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Indonesia | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Korea | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Philippines | 3.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Singapore | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Taiwan | 12.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 |
Inflation (CPI)
Last updated: 9 July
| YoY% (avg) | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 1Q28F | 2Q28F | 3Q28F | 4Q28F | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Germany | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| France | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| UK | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Italy | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Canada | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Australia | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| Eurozone | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Austria | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Spain | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | - |
| Netherlands | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Belgium | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Greece | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Portugal | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| Switzerland | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Bulgaria | 6.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 2.9 | - |
| Croatia | 5.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 2.9 | - |
| Czech Republic | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Hungary | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Poland | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Romania | 10.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Turkey | 32.2 | 29.4 | 28.5 | 25.4 | 22.3 | 21.2 | 21.0 | 20.4 | 20.1 | 19.8 | 19.6 | 30.6 | 22.6 | 20.0 |
| Serbia | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 4.0 | - |
| Azerbaijan | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| Kazakhstan | 10.4 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 8.4 |
| Russia | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| Uzbekistan | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.5 |
| Ukraine | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 4.9 |
| China | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| India | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| Indonesia | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Korea | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Philippines | 7.4 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Singapore | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Taiwan | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Policy rates
Last updated: 9 July
| G10 (%, eop) | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (upper bound) | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Eurozone (deposit rate) | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Japan (upper bound) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| UK | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Switzerland | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sweden | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Norway | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Canada | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| Australia | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | ||||||||
| Czech Republic | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Hungary | 6.00 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.00 |
| Poland | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Romania | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| Turkey | 37.00 | 37.00 | 35.00 | 32.00 | 29.00 | 27.00 | 25.00 | 24.00 |
| Serbia | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | - |
| Azerbaijan | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.00 |
| Kazakhstan | 17.00 | 16.50 | 16.00 | 15.50 | 15.00 | 14.50 | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| Russia | 14.25 | 14.00 | 14.00 | 13.00 | 12.50 | 12.00 | 11.50 | 9.00 |
| Uzbekistan | 14.00 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 12.50 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| Ukraine | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 14.50 | 14.00 | 13.50 | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| Asia (%, eop) | ||||||||
| China (7 day reverse repo rate) | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| India | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.25 |
| Indonesia | 5.50 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 |
| Korea | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Philippines | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Taiwan | 2.00 | 2.13 | 2.13 | 2.13 | 2.13 | 2.13 | 2.13 | 2.13 |
3 month rates
Last updated: 9 July
| G10 (%, eop) | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 3.65 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 3.60 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| Eurozone | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.40 |
| Japan | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| UK | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 4.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Switzerland | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Canada | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Australia | 4.38 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.40 | 4.00 | 3.85 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Czech Republic | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| Hungary | 5.69 | 5.04 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.55 | 4.80 | 4.55 | 3.90 |
| Poland | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| Turkey | 43.80 | 39.15 | 34.50 | 31.60 | 28.90 | 26.80 | 24.50 | 34.50 | 24.50 | 23.40 |
| Serbia | 4.70 | 4.55 | 4.55 | 4.30 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 4.70 | 3.90 | - |
| Kazakhstan | 16.70 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.30 | 14.80 | 14.30 | 13.80 | 15.00 | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| Russia | 13.59 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 12.00 | 11.50 | 11.00 | 10.50 | 13.00 | 10.50 | 9.00 |
| Asia (%, eop) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| China* | 1.42 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| India | 6.30 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.25 |
| Indonesia | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.40 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.40 | 5.50 | 5.25 |
| Korea | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| Philippines* | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Singapore | 1.15 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| Taiwan* | 1.68 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.80 |
Bonds & Swaps
Last updated: 9 July
| 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury yields (%, eop) | ||||||||||
| UST 2Y | 4.05 | 4.15 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| UST 5Y | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.15 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 4.15 | 3.85 | 3.90 |
| UST 10Y | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.30 | 4.40 | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| UST 30Y | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 5.00 | 5.05 | 5.15 | 5.00 | 5.15 | 5.15 |
| US swap rates (SOFR, %, eop) | ||||||||||
| SOFR | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 3.65 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| US 2Y swap | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 3.35 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.85 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| US 5Y swap | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 3.60 |
| US 10Y swap | 4.00 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.95 | 4.10 | 3.95 | 4.00 |
| US 30Y swap | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.15 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 4.30 |
| German Bund yields (%, eop) | ||||||||||
| Bund 2Y | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.55 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.55 | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| Bund 5Y | 2.70 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.85 |
| Bund 10Y | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Bund 30Y | 3.50 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 3.55 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| EUR swap rates (EURIBOR 6m, %, eop) | ||||||||||
| EURIBOR 6M | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.80 | 2.65 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.80 | 2.45 | 2.45 |
| EUR 2Y swap | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.65 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.70 | 2.55 | 2.65 |
| EUR 5Y swap | 2.85 | 2.90 | 2.85 | 2.80 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.85 | 2.80 | 2.90 |
| EUR 10Y swap | 3.00 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 3.05 | 3.15 |
| EUR 30Y swap | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Other G10 bond yields (10Y, %, eop) | ||||||||||
| Japan | 2.65 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| France | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.75 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 3.85 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| Italy | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Spain | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 3.40 | 3.55 | 3.60 |
| UK | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 4.65 | 4.55 | 4.45 | 4.50 | 4.30 | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| Netherlands | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.15 | 3.20 |
| Belgium | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 3.55 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| Austria | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.45 |
| Ireland | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Portugal | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| Switzerland | 0.25 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| Finland | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Canada | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Australia | 4.95 | 4.90 | 4.80 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 4.80 | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| EMEA bond yields (10Y, %, eop) | ||||||||||
| Bulgaria | 3.65 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 3.20 | - |
| Czech Republic | 4.54 | 4.50 | 4.28 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.28 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Hungary | 5.03 | 4.90 | 4.75 | 5.14 | 4.69 | 4.90 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.45 |
| Poland | 5.50 | 5.20 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.00 | 5.05 | 5.10 |
| Romania | 7.20 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.60 | 6.50 | 6.20 | 6.20 | 6.90 | 6.20 | 5.75 |
| Russia | 16.38 | 14.00 | 14.00 | 12.50 | 12.00 | 11.50 | 11.00 | 14.00 | 11.00 | 10.50 |
| Turkey | 33.50 | 29.00 | 28.70 | 27.70 | 24.40 | 24.10 | 23.05 | 28.70 | 23.05 | 20.50 |
| Asia bond yields (10Y, %, eop) | ||||||||||
| China | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 2.15 |
| India | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.90 | 6.40 | 6.50 |
| Indonesia | 6.70 | 6.60 | 6.50 | 6.60 | 6.60 | 6.60 | 6.60 | 6.50 | 6.60 | 6.50 |
| Korea | 4.20 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.20 | 4.15 | 4.50 | 4.15 | 4.00 |
| Philippines | 6.30 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.40 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 |
| Singapore | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.05 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Taiwan | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.60 | 1.70 | 1.80 |
FX
Last updated: 11 August
| G10 (eop) | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | EUR/USD | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| Japan | USD/JPY | 160 | 158 | 155 | 154 | 153 | 152 |
| UK | GBP/USD | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.36 |
| Japan | EUR/JPY | 187 | 186 | 183 | 185 | 185 | 185 |
| UK | EUR/GBP | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Canada | USD/CAD | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 |
| Australia | AUD/USD | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| New Zealand | NZD/USD | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Switzerland | EUR/CHF | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| Sweden | EUR/SEK | 10.90 | 10.80 | 10.70 | 10.60 | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| Norway | EUR/NOK | 10.80 | 10.75 | 10.65 | 10.60 | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| Denmark | EUR/DKK | 7.47 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 |
| EMEA (eop) | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | |
| Serbia | EUR/RSD | 117.30 | 117.30 | 117.25 | 117.25 | 117.20 | 117.20 |
| Czech Republic | EUR/CZK | 24.22 | 24.16 | 24.11 | 24.05 | 24.02 | 23.98 |
| Hungary | EUR/HUF | 360 | 350 | 355 | 355 | 350 | 350 |
| Poland | EUR/PLN | 4.24 | 4.22 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Romania | EUR/RON | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.30 | 5.32 |
| Turkey | USD/TRY | 49.55 | 53.00 | 55.30 | 57.60 | 59.80 | 62.00 |
| South Africa | USD/ZAR | 16.50 | 16.50 | 16.25 | 16.25 | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| Israel | USD/ILS | 3.00 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| CIS (eop) | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | |
| Azerbaijan | USD/AZN | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Kazakhstan | USD/KZT | 480 | 490 | 480 | 490 | 520 | 540 |
| Russia | USD/RUB | 82.75 | 87.75 | 82.75 | 85.75 | 90.75 | 95.75 |
| EUR/RUB | 96.82 | 103.55 | 97.65 | 102.90 | 109.81 | 116.82 | |
| Uzbekistan | USD/UZS | 12105 | 12130 | 12251 | 12372 | 12494 | 12615 |
| Ukraine | USD/UAH | 44.20 | 44.40 | 44.50 | 44.50 | 44.50 | 44.50 |
| Latam (eop) | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | |
| Brazil | USD/BRL | 5.15 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Mexico | USD/MXN | 17.25 | 17.25 | 17.25 | 17.25 | 17.25 | 17.25 |
| Chile | USD/CLP | 900 | 900 | 900 | 900 | 900 | 900 |
| Asia (eop) | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | |
| China | USD/CNY | 6.74 | 6.70 | 6.70 | 6.65 | 6.60 | 6.55 |
| India | USD/INR | 94.50 | 94.00 | 93.00 | 93.00 | 93.00 | 93.00 |
| Indonesia | USD/IDR | 18200 | 18000 | 17800 | 17700 | 17600 | 17500 |
| Korea | USD/KRW | 1425 | 1425 | 1425 | 1425 | 1400 | 1400 |
| Philippines | USD/PHP | 61.50 | 61.00 | 59.50 | 59.50 | 59.50 | 59.50 |
| Singapore | USD/SGD | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| Taiwan | USD/TWD | 31.60 | 31.40 | 31.20 | 31.00 | 30.80 | 30.60 |
Commodities
Last updated: 14 July
| Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 1Q28F | 2Q28F | 3Q28F | 4Q28F | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/bbl) | 80 | 74 | 72 | 68 | 70 | 70 | 68 | 70 | 73 | 67 | 82 | 70 | 70 |
| Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) | 45 | 48 | 40 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 30 | 27 | 24 | 28 | 45 | 34 | 27 |
| Metal Forecasts (avg) | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper ($/t) | 13,500 | 13,700 | 13,500 | 13,500 | 13,600 | 13,600 | 13,370 | 13,550 |
| Aluminium ($/t) | 3,200 | 3,100 | 3,000 | 2,900 | 2,850 | 2,800 | 3,255 | 2,888 |
| Nickel ($/t) | 16,500 | 16,000 | 16,500 | 16,500 | 16,500 | 17,000 | 17,082 | 16,625 |
| Zinc ($/t) | 3,550 | 3,500 | 3,400 | 3,300 | 3,250 | 3,300 | 3,448 | 3,312 |
| Lead ($/t) | 1,850 | 1,900 | 1,950 | 1,900 | 1,850 | 1,900 | 1,923 | 1,900 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,100 | 4,150 | 4,200 | 4,300 | 4,450 | 4,550 | 4,408 | 4,375 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 60.00 | 61.00 | 62.00 | 65.00 | 68.00 | 71.00 | 69.50 | 66.50 |
| Iron Ore ($/t) | 95.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 95.00 | 90.00 | 95.00 | 100.00 | 95.00 |
