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Fred Ellison
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Fred Ellison

@Ellison__Fred
Team USA. Thinker. Writer. In pursuit of difficult answers.
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Joined January 2026
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  • user avatar
    Fred Ellison
    @Ellison__Fred
    Apr 16
    "For over four decades, the Western world has been navigating the Islamic Republic of Iran with a persistent misreading of the regime’s nature, motivations, and structural architecture. However, this reading of the regime was not merely wrong by accident.
    user avatar
    Saeed Ghasseminejad
    @SGhasseminejad
    Apr 15
    The regime has built an extensive network of influence within Western academia. Those who appear on television or publish in the media in its defense represent only the tip of the iceberg. A much larger, and until recently largely hidden, segment consists of numerous professors,
  • user avatar
    Fred Ellison
    @Ellison__Fred
    Apr 15
    At the STRATCOM Summit 2026 in Istanbul, Ali Vaez offered a textbook specimen of the pattern: ground troops would be "the definition of mission creep and being bogged down in something like Vietnam"; targeting energy infrastructure would send oil prices above $250 a barrel,
    user avatar
    Richard Goldberg
    FDD
    @rich_goldberg
    Apr 15
    I do wonder whether there will be accountability for those who got this so wrong (either intentionally to create political pressure against the operation or just because they were bad analysts). The street notes from places like JPM were absolutely unhinged.
  • user avatar
    Fred Ellison
    @Ellison__Fred
    Apr 14
    "Constraint Framing: presenting all policy options except diplomatic accommodation as producing inevitable catastrophe, which routes the reader to the preferred conclusion through the grammar of logical necessity rather than through argument."
    user avatar
    Richard Goldberg
    FDD
    @rich_goldberg
    Apr 14
    Identifying the US-based nodes of the regime’s cognitive warfare is not hard. Just as predicted yesterday, right on cue…
  • user avatar
    Fred Ellison
    @Ellison__Fred
    Apr 14
    The concept of the Omat, the global community of believers that supersedes nationality, ethnicity, and family, has a political dimension that explains why genuine opposition cannot survive inside the Islamic Republic. Within the regime's worldview,
    user avatar
    Iran International English
    @IranIntl_En
    Apr 14
    A video sent to Iran International shows a group of supporters of the Islamic Republic, who appear to have come to Iran from Arab countries, gathering at Shohada Square in central Tehran, where a speaker in Arabic thanks Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Ansarallah.
    Image
    00:00
  • user avatar
    Fred Ellison
    @Ellison__Fred
    Apr 14
    Akbar Rafsanjani, who was one of Khomeini's most trusted confidants recognized the arithmetic: if the Islamic Republic could not defeat American pressure through conventional or proxy force, it would need to neutralize that pressure through other means.
    user avatar
    Richard Goldberg
    FDD
    @rich_goldberg
    Apr 14
    Cognitive warfare. For the first time in a while, the U.S. has taken control. This means the rumpers will fight back. Cue the drip-drip of stories meant to deter enforcement of the blockade. We should stay on offense and not let them take it back. Information warfare is real.
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