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"The hike is being priced out, but easing is not being priced in."
Bitfinex Alpha in @TheBlockCo, on why the market may be misreading a September hold.
Bitcoin's oldest coins are sitting still.
The 250,000 $BTC that left long-term holder supply since late July came almost entirely from the 155 to 300 day band, coins that only recently became long-term.
The aggregate number hides who is actually selling.
x.com/bitfinex/statu…
$BTC long-term holder supply saw its first weekly dip since April, a marginal one.
It traces to newer cohort members selling at breakeven, February buyers newly counted as long-term, not veterans.
One week is not a trend. A sustained drawdown would be the signal to watch.
The marginal seller in $BTC is no longer the miner.
Bitfinex Alpha noted in @CoinDesk that 1.79 million coins bought between $62,000 and $65,000 now sit at breakeven, and they are selling into every push higher.
That is why the range holds.
The bond market is telling us two things.
Short-term yields have eased since late July because traders think the Fed is done raising.
The 30-year keeps climbing, pricing inflation and government borrowing.
Long-term bond yields ultimately sets the conditions for $BTC.