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Lauris
@lzminsky
forward deployed philosopher. I want markets for all priceable states of the world.
london / nyc
lauris.xyz
Joined April 2009
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  • Pinned
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    Lauris
    @lzminsky
    4h
    Introducing Blanket! Blanket helps small businesses find relevant @Kalshi markets for hedging risk and running promotions. Describe your business risks and it will help identify the Kalshi markets that fit. Blanket is a research product and will be open sourced after testing.
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    Lauris
    @lzminsky
    Aug 10
    on that note, courtesy of @deLeyritzluc, will be able to continue on the civilizational history arc
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    Lauris
    @lzminsky
    Aug 9
    I’ve been rereading Marshall Hodgson. I’ve also gone back to John Elliott on imperial Spain, and it reminded me of something. I don’t think societies usually decline because nobody can tell what is going wrong. A lot of the time people know, sometimes in great detail. It just
  • user avatar
    Lauris
    @lzminsky
    Aug 9
    I would call this post-crypto, but in full agreement with Nick. The speculative beta on narrative and reg arb is dead, outside of pure speculative. The industry has developed several core primitives that are taking over finance. That is a mission complete state. The systems
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    Nick van Eck
    Agora
    @Nick_van_Eck
    Aug 8
    Crypto feels firmly in its own post-dot-com era. Risk assets are down, companies and funds are closing shop, and sentiment is low. Momentum traders, the hype cycle, and culture has moved on to AI for good reason (the commodity + EM/China hype in the 2000s was a powerful
  • user avatar
    Lauris
    @lzminsky
    Aug 9
    I’ve been rereading Marshall Hodgson. I’ve also gone back to John Elliott on imperial Spain, and it reminded me of something. I don’t think societies usually decline because nobody can tell what is going wrong. A lot of the time people know, sometimes in great detail. It just
    Image