Analysis

4294 Results

Untangling the Democratic Dark Money Web Funding Independent Candidates

AUG 7, 2026

A fisherman in Bristol Bay, Alaska. A Green Beret in Missoula, Montana. Two firefighters, in Eastern Washington and Mequon, Wisconsin. A radiologist in Loma Linda, California. All are running for Congress as independents in Republican territory. All tout their outsider status. And all are benefitting from millions of dollars in spending by a complex web of left-leaning “dark…

Tennessee Primary Results

by Nathan L. Gonzales

AUG 7, 2026

Tennessee’s unique Thursday primaries put the Volunteer State in the national spotlight. Most of the action was on the Republican side as another House incumbent was defeated, three Republicans won primaries in GOP districts and will be likely members next year, and a senator is poised to become governor and subsequently appoint her successor. Here’s what happened: Governor.…

Independents’ Day: Third-Party and Independent Candidates to Watch

by Inshara Ali

AUG 6, 2026

Possibly the most interesting story of the 2026 midterms may not be a candidate at all. It’s a decision several Democratic candidates have made not to be one. In Nebraska, South Dakota and Idaho, Democratic Senate candidates have withdrawn from their own races to clear the field for independents challenging GOP incumbents — and the Democratic nominee in…

Senate Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

AUG 6, 2026

Georgia. Jon Ossoff (D), elected 2020 (51%). Ossoff has maintained a healthy polling lead over GOP Rep. Mike Collins throughout the summer, and had a 21-1 cash-on-hand advantage over the Piedmont congressman on June 30. Georgia retains Republican DNA even as it has shifted left in recent years, and even if he can’t juice his fundraising, Collins will…

House Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

AUG 6, 2026

Colorado’s 3rd District (Pueblo area and Western Slope) Jeff Hurd, R, elected 51%. Trump 54%. A Keating Research poll for the Dwayne Romero campaign found Romero trailing Hurd, 46-45 percent. Hurd’s image was underwater as well. With Republicans facing a blowout at the top of the ticket with uncompetitive races for Senate and governor, this race is worth…

Governor Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

AUG 6, 2026

Kansas. Open; Laura Kelly (D), term-limited. State Senate President Ty Masterson won the Republican nomination with 43 percent with the help of President Donald Trump’s endorsement and will look to win what may be the best opportunity for Republicans this year to flip a governorship. He defeated a crowded field of opponents including businessman Philip Sarnecki (22 percent),…

Primary Results in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington

by Nicholas Demba & Jacob Rubashkin

AUG 5, 2026

With just three months to go before the general election, primary voters in five states went to the polls in a batch of consequential Senate, House and gubernatorial races. While the marquee race was the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, November matchups are now officially set in Kansas, Missouri, Virginia and Washington as well. Here’s what happened on…

Why Trump’s Job Approval Rating Could be Headed Down Again

by Nathan L. Gonzales

AUG 3, 2026

The good news for Republicans is that President Donald Trump’s job approval rating isn’t getting any worse. The bad news is that many of the issues that drove his rating down in the first place are making their way back into the news, with the midterm elections creeping closer with each passing day. After beginning his second term…

Top 5 Candidates Who Didn’t Run (and Why They Might Affect Senate Majority)

by Jacob Rubashkin

JUL 31, 2026

If either party falls a single seat short of a Senate majority in the fall, Republicans and Democrats might end up playing a two-year game of “What If.” On Tuesday, Michigan Democrats will limp to the end of a contentious and expensive Senate primary. Either Rep. Haley Stevens or public health official Abdul El-Sayed will win the nomination…

The 19 Swing Counties to Watch in 2026 Senate Majority Fight

by Ashleigh Jones

JUL 28, 2026

It’s no secret that Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina are at the center of the fight for the Senate majority. But a look below the surface reveals a handful of swing counties in each state that will likely decide whether Republicans or Democrats are in control of the chamber next year. Democrats need a net gain of four…