Pinned
The 20% of the Economy That Drives 100% of Recessions
Why conventional analysis fails — and the three sectors you should actually be watching.
Eric Basmajian
@EPBResearch
The economy moves in a sequence. Read it before consensus does.
- Over the last 6 months, per the household survey, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2%. This decline occurred because the economy lost 920,000 jobs, but the labor force fell by 1.371 million.
- The labor market remains: Low hire, no fire. Finding a job is at 2010-2011 levels. Very tough. If you have a job, layoffs are very low.
