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HelloTrade
@hellotradeapp
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Joined August 2025
Macro update: Recent oil price action over the past few months is worrying. 10 of the 11 postwar US recessions were preceded by a sharp move higher in oil (usually with a lag). The market is treating lower oil as good news because it reduces inflation pressure and gives the Fed- Our August watchlist. With no Fed meeting until September, the data carries the month, and Jackson Hole closes it. Questions: after June's 57k, does hiring crack or does it steady? With WTI back under $80, does inflation keep cooling? And does the consumer still hold?
- July #macro review. We opened the month asking where the growth lag might show first. The answer: it didn't. Inflation cooled right on cue. CPI fell to 3.5%, PPI turned negative, core PCE eased. But the softness didn't come. ISM Services held at 54.0, Empire State, the tell weOur July watchlist. First, something to consider: is the growth lag from the spring energy shock starting to surface in the data? ISM Services tomorrow covers the 70% of the economy that manufacturing misses. Empire State mid-month leads the national ISM by two weeks, and new
- 11 whole years... What began as a world computer became the foundation for stablecoins, DeFi, NFTs, tokenization and an entirely new digital economy. A lot has changed in eleven years. The ambition hasn't: build an open financial system anyone can access. Happy birthday,
