By sitting down with senior Iranian figures who publicly back the Revolutionary Guard while keeping sanctions limited to technocratic lists, EU governments risk undermining their own leverage at a time of rising regional tensions.
As Donald Trump gambles on chaos at home and Vladimir Putin’s missiles pound Ukrainian cities, Timothy Snyder warns that Americans now face a new, self-inflicted 9/11-style test of whether they will – again – react exactly as the terrorists hope.
Iran and the United States signed an interim agreement two weeks ago. Yet hostilities between the two countries have not completely stopped. So starting the summer holidays, what should we expect for oil and gas prices?
Are oil markets too optimistic?The economics of reopening a chokepoint that handles a fifth of the world’s oil and overseas gas supply may prove more difficult than market prices suggest.
Europe helped design the last Iran nuclear deal—yet this time, as ships, warplanes and diplomats converge around the Strait of Hormuz, the key decisions on sanctions, nukes and reparations may be taken in talks where the EU barely has a seat.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the US were to restrict gas exports to Europe, prices would jump above the 2022 peak, researchers warn.
The EU has set out plans to ramp up production of home-grown fertiliser, in a blow to Morocco which has been lobbying the EU Commission to encourage imports of its phosphate-based fertiliser.
The EU will be ‘strategic’ and likely add more conditions to its development aid funding, EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday.
THIS WEEK: Syria and Iran, plus national strikes in Belgium and Hungary’s new PMOfficials from Syria, as well as EU ministers dealing with foreign affairs and defence, are all convening in Brussels, ahead of a national strike in Belgium.
Support for Israel in the United States continues to weaken — both among all young voters and especially in Democratic circles and even amongst Jewish Americans. Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to reduce Israeli dependence on US military aid to zero within 10 years – is that realistic?
The London-based oil major reported adjusted earnings of €6.1bn, beating market expectations and doubling last quarter’s results. The chief executive defended the results as showing Shell’s “relentless focus on operational performance.”
The EU Commission and the rotating EU presidency invited the IMF to press ministers to rein in untargeted measures shielding households and businesses from the energy shock from the Iran war.
The humanitarian catastrophe is a consequence of a prolonged European abdication: the refusal to hold a belligerent Israeli government and an erratic American administration to account when doing so mattered. That failure is not just a shameful moral lapse. It is strategic self-harm that has left the European continent exposed, divided and diminished.
In response to the Strait of Hormuz oil crisis, Germany, Lithuania and the Netherlands are showing the way to provide cheap rail fares to their citizens – which EU country is next?
The EU Commission may also allow subsidies for gas-fired power generation, which critics say runs counter to EU goals to reduce fossil-fuel use.
The EU Commission also unveiled plans to subsidise up to 70 percent of the extra cost of fuel caused by the Iran war for farmers, fishers and road hauliers.
In the wake of the execution of Swedish citizen Koroush Kivani last month, Sweden announced visa restrictions on Iranian embassy staff and pushed for new EU sanctions, but these actions offer no meaningful impact. These performative responses are no substitute for strategic deterrence work and demonstrate Sweden’s inadequate protocols and resources to deal with hostage situations.
The current European debate – led by the UK, France, and Germany – suggests a timeframe of several months for maintaining a naval presence once a stable agreement is in place. This appears unrealistic for three reasons. While any projection remains speculative, the coalition’s naval presence is likely to remain in place for at least two to five years.
This WEEK: MEPs decide on next EU budget, as ECB responds to Iran war MEPs vote on their position on the 2028–2034 EU budget. The ECB and Federal Reserve are likely to hold rates steady amid rising inflation. Key debates in the EU Parliament include a common legal definition of rape and the impacts of the war in the Middle East, alongside a fossil-fuel transition summit in Colombia.
One nuclear expert told me he didn’t want to write an op-ed on the possible dangers of a meltdown of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine. He then added he’d stocked up on iodine tablets.
