That's why we used wisdom of the crowd but with precisely defined and measurable forecast outcomes for occupations, as well as related measures like bachelor's degrees, hours worked, and labor productivity.
On Monsanto v. Durnell, our community called Monsanto the favorite (~70-80%); FantasyScotus's crowd leaned 5-4 the other way.
SCOTUS ruled 7-2 for Monsanto in June.
We don't often get to compare our forecasts directly against subject matter experts or other crowd aggregation
We asked Metaculus Pro Forecasters to predict how AI will reshape the US job market through 2035. In addition to leaving forecasts, there is a vigorous ongoing community discussion on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum (link in replies).
One comment we want to highlight
Follow these developments on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: metaculus.com/labor-hub/ (which now includes dedicated jobs pages for occupations including nurses, designers, software developers, lawyers, construction workers, & more)
To leave your own comment, visit the Labor
When we launched the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub in April, the prevailing assumption was that no government could slow a frontier AI lab once it decided to ship. Then, on June 12, the US government forced Anthropic to pull back Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, days after they
This is what live forecasting looks like: the best forecasters often update their odds in public as the facts evolve.
Follow these developments on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: metaculus.com/labor-hub/ (which now includes dedicated jobs pages for occupations including
The Market Pulse Challenge 26Q3 is Live! $7,500 in prizes (free to participate).
Test your skills against real-world outcomes by predicting market trends and company performance!
Hi Warren, we appreciate the call for rigor, and we agree that strong claims about AI vs. human forecasters should be based on, as you say, โthe same questions, at the same time, under the same rules, with the same information environment.โ Weโve actually done this every quarter
The problem @bencasselman identifies in his latest for NYT -- summed up perfectly in the quote below -- is precisely the problem we hope the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub helps address.
It's a reliable source for forecasts, from both forecasters and subject matter experts
Top Comment Highlight: exmateriae (@DrTournesol) responding to the question: How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?
The comment is too involved to post here (to its credit!), so read it in full: metaculus.com/questions/4336โฆ
Today the Supreme Court ruled 7-2 for Monsanto in Monsanto v. Durnell, holding that federal pesticide law preempts state cancer-warning lawsuits over glyphosate.
- Before the decision came down, Metaculus forecasters put the odds at 60%.
- Bayerโs stock has since increased by
Kavanaugh wrote the majority. Jackson and Gorsuch dissented. The ruling shields Bayer from liability in roughly 160,000 pending Roundup cases. Forecasters tracked this case from cert petition to ruling, following the Solicitor General's recommendation and oral argument signals.
The Unjournal has co-launched an Animal Welfare forecasting tournament on Metaculus, with a prize pool ($3,400). Questions span cage-free progress, cultivated meat, legislation, alternative proteins, and many animal-relevant outcomes. Participation is free