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Metaculus
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Forecasts on critical topics. Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: metaculus.com/labor-hub FutureEval: metaculus.com/futureeval Partner: metaculus.com/services
Santa Cruz, CA
metaculus.com
Joined November 2015
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  • Metaculus reposted
    user avatar
    Ryan Beck
    @ryanbeck111
    Jul 14
    Replying to @besttrousers
    That's why we used wisdom of the crowd but with precisely defined and measurable forecast outcomes for occupations, as well as related measures like bachelor's degrees, hours worked, and labor productivity.
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    Labor Automation Forecasting Hub | Metaculus
    From metaculus.com
    3990399
  • user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 13
    On Monsanto v. Durnell, our community called Monsanto the favorite (~70-80%); FantasyScotus's crowd leaned 5-4 the other way. SCOTUS ruled 7-2 for Monsanto in June. We don't often get to compare our forecasts directly against subject matter experts or other crowd aggregation
    7240724
    user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 13
    If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto? -- Forecast Question:
    community predictions
    If SCOTUS hears Monsanto v. Durnell, will it rule for Monsanto?
    From metaculus.com
    3170317
  • user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 13
    We asked Metaculus Pro Forecasters to predict how AI will reshape the US job market through 2035. In addition to leaving forecasts, there is a vigorous ongoing community discussion on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum (link in replies). One comment we want to highlight
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    6940694
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    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 13
    Follow these developments on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: metaculus.com/labor-hub/ (which now includes dedicated jobs pages for occupations including nurses, designers, software developers, lawyers, construction workers, & more) To leave your own comment, visit the Labor
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    Labor Automation Forecasting Hub | Metaculus
    From metaculus.com
    3990399
  • user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 9
    When we launched the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub in April, the prevailing assumption was that no government could slow a frontier AI lab once it decided to ship. Then, on June 12, the US government forced Anthropic to pull back Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, days after they
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    user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 9
    This is what live forecasting looks like: the best forecasters often update their odds in public as the facts evolve. Follow these developments on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: metaculus.com/labor-hub/ (which now includes dedicated jobs pages for occupations including
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    Labor Automation Forecasting Hub | Metaculus
    From metaculus.com
    3910391
  • user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 9
    The Market Pulse Challenge 26Q3 is Live! $7,500 in prizes (free to participate). Test your skills against real-world outcomes by predicting market trends and company performance!
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    6780678
    user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 9
    Participate here:
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    Market Pulse Challenge 26Q3
    From metaculus.com
    3320332
  • Metaculus reposted
    user avatar
    Molly Hickman
    @celloMolly
    Jul 8
    Metaculus has run a head-to-head tournament, LLMs vs humans, every quarter since 2024. Check out FutureEval metaculus.com/futureeval/
    user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 8
    Replying to @wfrhatch
    Hi Warren, we appreciate the call for rigor, and we agree that strong claims about AI vs. human forecasters should be based on, as you say, โ€œthe same questions, at the same time, under the same rules, with the same information environment.โ€ Weโ€™ve actually done this every quarter
    2.4K02.4K
  • user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 3
    The problem @bencasselman identifies in his latest for NYT -- summed up perfectly in the quote below -- is precisely the problem we hope the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub helps address. It's a reliable source for forecasts, from both forecasters and subject matter experts
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    8170817
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    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jul 3
    Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: metaculus.com/labor-hub/ "A.I. Is Reshaping the Economy. Good Luck Measuring How." nytimes.com/2026/07/02/busโ€ฆ
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    Labor Automation Forecasting Hub | Metaculus
    From metaculus.com
    3750375
  • user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jun 30
    Top Comment Highlight: exmateriae (@DrTournesol) responding to the question: How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026? The comment is too involved to post here (to its credit!), so read it in full: metaculus.com/questions/4336โ€ฆ
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    5750575
  • user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jun 25
    Today the Supreme Court ruled 7-2 for Monsanto in Monsanto v. Durnell, holding that federal pesticide law preempts state cancer-warning lawsuits over glyphosate. - Before the decision came down, Metaculus forecasters put the odds at 60%. - Bayerโ€™s stock has since increased by
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    2K02K
    user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jun 25
    Kavanaugh wrote the majority. Jackson and Gorsuch dissented. The ruling shields Bayer from liability in roughly 160,000 pending Roundup cases. Forecasters tracked this case from cert petition to ruling, following the Solicitor General's recommendation and oral argument signals.
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    user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jun 25
    Forecast questions here:
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    Monsanto Co. v. Durnell
    From metaculus.com
    3410341
  • Metaculus reposted
    user avatar
    Nicolas Treich
    @Treich13
    Jun 25
    The Unjournal has co-launched an Animal Welfare forecasting tournament on Metaculus, with a prize pool ($3,400). Questions span cage-free progress, cultivated meat, legislation, alternative proteins, and many animal-relevant outcomes. Participation is free
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    Animal Futures Tournament on Metaculus
    From info.unjournal.org
    4220422
  • Metaculus reposted
    user avatar
    Jacob Schaal
    @FutureEconJacob
    Jun 23
    Predictions from @metaculus regarding the workforce in 2035 are in line with @alexolegimas' predictions of a relational bottleneck
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  • user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jun 19
    ๐Ÿ‘€
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    35K035K
    user avatar
    Metaculus
    @metaculus
    Jun 19
    More:
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    Will AI replace Software Developers? ยท Metaculus Labor Hub forecast
    From metaculus.com
    6560656
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