"Will we be ready for AGI?"
"How are China's AGI capabilities trending?"
Big questions like these are tricky to operationalize as forecasts—they're also more important than extremely narrow questions.
We're experimenting with forecast indexes to help resolve this tension.
I gave $4,735.84 in charitable donations this year, 5% of my pre-tax income.
58% global health and dev (inc. @GiveDirectly poverty relief)
8% @NTI_WMD
29% local radio + arts orgs + church (too much, in hindsight)
4% local abortion fund
Here's to giving more next year! 🕊️
Belated job update: I'm delighted to have joined the team at @metaculus in August! We're working on exciting new features and projects, some of which you can read about here:
I gave $1,760 this year, ~2% of my pre-tax income. Some dollars were more effective than others (won't be giving to Wikipedia anymore). The $273 to GiveDirectly, I wouldn't have given if not for @NathanpmYoung and @xriskology fundraiser (props to you guys). 1/
The Manifest team has outdone themselves. Whirlwind weekend of fantastic talks, workshops, wrestling, singing, collaboration. Deep gratitude to @saulmunn and everyone else who made this conference season such a joy. Manifest 2025 can't come soon enough!
Today, we published results from an adversarial collaboration focused on forecasting risks from AI.
This project:
- Involved intensive engagement among 22 carefully chosen superforecasters and domain experts
- Aimed to identify key drivers of disagreement and "crux" questions
