Daniel Kral (@DanielKral1) / X

Daniel Kral

7,455 posts

Daniel Kral

@DanielKral1

Europe macro. Opinions my own. All of them.

Joined February 2013

Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Aug 21, 2024
A reminder that the Warsaw Pact was the only military alliance in history that attacked uniquely its own members.
Alastair Bassett
@AlastairBassett
Aug 20, 2024
Troops from the Soviet Union and other Warsaw Pact countries invaded Czechoslovakia on this day 56 years ago. This photo was taken 5 minutes away from where I used to live in Bratislava. A sobering thought.
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Jun 18, 2024
Why are the French so done with @EmmanuelMacron? Yes, the fiscal deficit is wide and public debt shot up. But that's because the state's fiscal firepower was used to secure the lowest cumulative inflation in the EU, the highest employment growth, and keep very low poverty levels.
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Jun 12, 2023
Impressive how Poland's trade balance has gone from a large deficit 20 years ago to a large surplus now - even surpassing Germany. Exports of goods and services now make up 65% of Poland's GDP, up from 25% in 2000. Poland is the new export powerhouse of Europe.
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Sep 4, 2025
At this point, 🇪🇸 is just making everyone else look bad. Its manufacturing PMI took off in August, signalling an upturn in industry. And no, 🇪🇸 is not just tourism and wine. Its industry's share in total value added (15%) is higher than in 🇧🇪 (14%) 🇳🇱 (13%) or 🇫🇷 (12%).
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Jul 29, 2025
Spain's economy keeps defying gravity with quarterly growth accelerating in Q2. Improving growth composition from govt consumption & services exports to broad-based rise in fixed investment & private consumption. Best performing major advanced (not just EU) economy by far. 🇪🇸🚀
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Jan 30, 2025
The gap that has opened up between the German and Spanish economies during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has now been closed.
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Jan 29, 2025
🇪🇸 is on 🔥. As the fastest growing advanced economy in 2024 (3.2%) with a strong finish to the year, even if there is no q/q growth in each quarter of this year, it would still be up 1.2%. If q/q growth averages 0.4% (half of 2024), it would grow 2.3% (double expected Eurozone).
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Oct 8, 2025
Regular reminder France already spends the largest share of national income on pensions in the whole Eurozone. It feels like the domestic debate on fiscal issues is so detached from reality, it is hard for an outsider to begin to comprehend.
Olivier Blanchard
@ojblanchard1
Oct 8, 2025
A suggestion. A suspension of the retirement reform is a jump without a parachute. Given the widely different views (remember how it went last time), it means months if not years of haggling, during which the situation steadily deteriorates. Why not do the reverse? Construct
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
May 16, 2023
The new pecking order in Europe: GDP in Q1'23 vs Q4'19 Poland: +11.2% Nordics: +5.3% (avg) Italy, Portugal: +3.4% (avg) Eurozone: +2.5% (+1.6% excl. Ireland) France: +1.3% Germany, Spain: ~Flat UK: -0.5% Czechia: -0.9% Interesting that CEE has the best and worst performer...
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Jun 18, 2024
🇫🇷: Macron keeps inflation among the lowest in the EU, voters get angry and vote for extremes 🇭🇺: The highest inflation and a collapsing currency, Orbán wins like 158th election in a row with a large majority* *in totally free and fair elections
EU_Eurostat
@EU_Eurostat
Jun 18, 2024
Euro area annual #inflation up to 2.6% in May 2024 ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/we…
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Jul 29, 2025
Spain's economy keeps defying gravity with quarterly growth accelerating in Q2. Improving growth composition from govt consumption & services exports to broad-based rise in fixed investment & private consumption. Best performing major advanced (not just EU) economy by far. 🇪🇸🚀
This post is unavailable.
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Sep 2, 2022
Wholesale gas prices in Europe are collapsing (down over 10% today after large falls in previous days) even as Nordstream is under "maintenance" and other pipeline gas flows from Russia continue to be drastically reduced. Russia is no longer the marginal price setter for EU gas.
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Jun 12, 2023
Poland is special. 🚀
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Jun 12, 2023
Impressive how Poland's trade balance has gone from a large deficit 20 years ago to a large surplus now - even surpassing Germany. Exports of goods and services now make up 65% of Poland's GDP, up from 25% in 2000. Poland is the new export powerhouse of Europe.
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Oct 8, 2025
The launch of € and 🇨🇳's entry to WTO hammered 🇮🇹's industry. Then came the financial crisis, it never recovered. Energy and new 🇨🇳 shocks are decimating 🇩🇪 industry now (🇺🇸 tariffs too). 🇩🇪 & 🇮🇹 have the largest industry sectors in 🇪🇺 (42% of total). Our crown jewels...
This post is unavailable.
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Apr 28, 2023
There is a new wunder kid on the block: Portugal Economy growing to the moon, while govt runs a large primary surplus and debt-to-GDP ratio drops to lowest in more than a decade. Maybe Portugal can devise an adjustment programme for Germany, which is stuck in limbo since 2018.
Daniel Kral
@DanielKral1
Oct 30, 2024
Spain's economy has been propelled by two key drivers (1) govt consumption, meaning the size of the state growing (2) services exports, a lot of it low-paid low-productivity tourism. Investment has been weak despite large transfers from the EU, private consumption badly scarred.
This post is unavailable.